Playing a 2/3

Stacks
Hero:350
Villian:215

2 limpers and I'm delt AJ in the Hijack and raise to 10, button calls and the 2 limpers call

Pot:45

Flop: 1034

Check to me and I bet 25, button calls, and everyone else folds

Pot:95

Turn 7 I bet 45 and Villian jams for 135

Dont have a read on the player because I barely sat down. I feel like I have 15 outs unless he has a set, but I dont think he would jam a set with position and me showing aggression, again I have no read and bad players would pull the trigger too early. Also if he had a set maybe wouldve raised the flop to build the pot. Do you call or fold?

You're getting ~2/1 on the call so you'd need roughly 36% equity.

Even if you have 15 outs (weird line for the villain to take with 10x. If it's not a set then I could see it with something like KK/QQ that they slow-played in which case you'd only have 12 outs) that would only give you ~30% with only the river card still to come so the call is -EV.

I think it's just over 3/1 on the call? 24%?

Pots 275 with 90 to call?

Listen you're playing above my pay grade and live (not played live in 8 years) so you would have a better understanding here than me on player tendencies.

I'd say assuming 15 outs is far fetched. But that's coming from a microstakes online player. Exploding pots after a fairly committing turn CB is usually nutted.

However even if it's not then vs a range of hands that'd do this I'd average out your outs. Sometimes you hit your flush but lose to a full house and sometimes you hit your overs and lose to 2pair+. Rather than 15 clean outs 12 or 13 seems more likely against a turn 2B shove range?


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Yes, you're right (my bad). I did the calc in my head and forgot the 45 that OP had already put in the pot. Ok in that case yeah I think the call is good