fold, CO raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold
Flop:(7 BB, 2 players) K 8 Q Hero bets 3.5 BB, CO calls 3.5 BB
Turn:(14 BB, 2 players) K Hero bets 7 BB, CO raises to 22.5 BB, Hero calls 15.5 BB
River:(59 BB, 2 players) J Hero bets 57 BB, CO raises to 114 BB, Hero calls 50.5 BB and is all-in
Spoiler:
CO shows K Q (Full House, Kings full of Queens)
(Pre 75%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%) Hero shows K J (Full House, Kings full of Jacks)
(Pre 25%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%) CO wins 264.5 BB
I'm putting villain on AA, AK, KQ, KJ, K8s, QQ, 88 by the river.
Assuming that range, I have 39% on the turn, which seems like a clear call given the pot odds.
On the river I have 82% against that range.
Is this correct, or am I running into KQ here like always?
On the river: Any weird busted draws/bluffs aren't going to call your bet but may possibly bet if you check to them. Any other full houses are going to be betting for sure. AK or K10 might check behind if you didn't bet but I doubt it. Overall I think check/shoving is the right play here.
I grunch posts so didn't read your response to the other poster.
A 19/11 pre-flop player doesn't seem very loose-passive to me but then again it’s very possible he plays differently pre and post flop.
I don’t donk very often but I think a suitable candidate for a value type donk bet would need to have a low AF, c-bet and fold to donk/c-bet.
I’d suspect that a 19/11 with a low c-bet is more than likely a fit-or-fold player. Donking someone like that is just turning your hand into a bluff.
I grunch posts so didn't read your response to the other poster.
A 19/11 pre-flop player doesn't seem very loose-passive to me but then again it’s very possible he plays differently pre and post flop.
I don’t donk very often but I think a suitable candidate for a value type donk bet would need to have a low AF, c-bet and fold to donk/c-bet.
I’d suspect that a 19/11 with a low c-bet is more than likely a fit-or-fold player. Donking someone like that is just turning your hand into a bluff.
On the flop I'm getting value from worse K's, Q's and straight draws, maybe even some other weird hands, against a villain with a low cbet.