Alright interested in opinions about this hand. Would you raise in this spot after a small bet OTF and a call from CO and when CO jams do you call?

partypoker - $0.25 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 233.6 BB
SB: 64 BB
BB: 165.8 BB
UTG: 32.04 BB
UTG+1: 130.4 BB (VPIP: 28, PFR: 11, 3Bet Preflop: 0, Hands: 13)
MP: 99 BB
MP+1: 80.76 BB
MP+2: 43.24 BB
CO: 106.36 BB (VPIP: 28, PFR: 8, 3Bet Preflop: 1, Hands: 51)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB, MP posts penalty blind 0.4 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.8 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2 BB, MP calls 1.6 BB, fold, fold, CO calls 2 BB, Hero raises to 11.4 BB, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls 9.4 BB, MP calls 9.4 BB, CO calls 9.4 BB

Flop: (47 BB, 4 players) 4 5 3
UTG+1 bets 6 BB, fold, CO calls 6 BB, Hero raises to 28 BB, fold, CO raises to 94.96 BB and is all-in, Hero?

I wouldn't love it but against someone with fishy stats who would probably overvalue every pair I think folding is out of the question.

I hate the 28BB raise, what are you trying to accomplish?

Villain doesn't seem like a very aggressive player, so he most likely hit something.
He's not doing this with TP, so he is doing this with something that has you beat.
Most likely something like A2 or 67 of hearts.

Raising the flop may not be horrible. I actually think we need to raise here to charge possible draws. But your sizing is horrible imo.
Raising to 18-20BB has the exact same result.
If villain calls and bets again on the turn or raises you know you're beat.
You now lose 8-10BB less the many times you are beat here.

If villain is still drawing, he probably won't bet again.

Might even bet 25-50% pot on the river if no bad cards come.

As played I think the re-raise of CO is an easy fold for us.

Yeah thought about my raise sizing alot and I was inclined to believe I raised too big also making it harder to fold when he jamms. Thanks for you're help

snap call.

This type of post is completely useless.
If you're going to post, at least explain why you're doing something.

there's soo much money in the pot that CO is just going to commit with most hands he wants to continue. so they'll be continuing with plenty of draws and PPs and from time to time he'll show up with a set and maybe a straight, but so be it.

agree with above

There's 145.96 BB in the pot and 66.96 BB for hero to call.
Giving us 1:2.18?

I think we're definetely behind way more often than those odds.
Unless ofcourse villain is a decent player and plays his draws like this. Not sure how the average player would play an open ender or flush draw here.

Really disagree with your logic in bold. The idea of charging draws is that you want to give them an incorrect price to call. The bet you're suggesting is offering FD's and OESD's a better price than required for an immediate call. It would be absolutely correct for either draw to call given that price.

When raising to 20BB, there's 79BB in the pot and it's 14BB to call (since they already put in 6BB)
So that's 17.72%

Flush draw is 9% or 18% if we assume we won't be betting the turn.
Since we will most often be betting the turn, we're not giving a flush draw the correct odds to call.

Straight draws are either 4/8 or 8/16%, so we're not giving them odds to call either.

Straight + flush draws have 15/30%, so we're not even giving these odds to call if we plan on betting the turn.

Is this math correct? Not really sure ...


Maybe we should bet like 22-24BB?
Maybe 28BB is fine, not really sure anymore!

Your math is wrong. It's 14BB to call into a pot of 79, so 14/(79+14) = Villain requires ~15% to make an immediate call correct.

FD has 9 immediate outs to hit ott. 9/47 = ~19%.
OESD has 8 outs. 8/47 = ~17%.
(You can simply multiply the outs by 2 to give you a rough estimate of the odds for hitting on the next street).

Taking the math from the hand as played:
22/(87+22) = ~20%.

So you can see that betting close to 28BB (or more) is more correct in immediate terms (if we put villain on a FD. This is further complicated by their being 2 villains, but I'm spelling out the math just to demonstrate the concept). All of this is independent of what happens on the Turn. But, in that regard, you also mentioned the following, which is also worth thinking about:

If villain thinks you will be betting the Turn very often (even when the flush comes in, say), then he may be correct to call the flop bet, even if he is not getting the correct immediate odds to call. This concept is called implied odds.

Well I wasn't off by much.
Since we're most likely done with this hand if a flush or extra straight card comes in my logic pretty much stands.

6BB into 47BB pot on the flop is just a stab, so I'd raise in this position to 20BB. Calling the all-in would require a good read on the CO - is he the type of player to go all in with a draw or with an overpair worse than QQ, or does he need the nuts. I'd look at his Flop aggression factor and Won Money at Showdown to see.

This was your logic:

You suggested raising less. Your logic was exactly backward. Personally, I'd be raising to a minimum of 40BB here.

Hmm, I don't hate the idea of raising much higher here.
EDIT: I actually do hate raising that much here.

My logic still stands though, raising to 20BB should be fine.
Still hating raising to 28BB for the same reasons.

If we think our hand is good here, raising to 40BB makes more sense and that makes it an easy call when villain shoves on us, since we're getting much better odds now.
On the other hand, raising that big probably gives villain a lot more opportunity to play correctly.
He will be less likely to call with draws and he's getting it in easier with made hands that beat us.

If we think we're behind here often, I'd prefer raising to 20BB so we can raise/fold.

Check if you think your behind. Or bet if you think a bluff will take it down?

Never flat calling here since there's way too many draws and there's a really good chance our hand is still good.

By raising to 20BB you're allowing villain play correctly with all his draws. Add in draws that have an A or K and it's even more of an easy decision for him.

I've spelled this our for you in the math above, so if that doesn't change you're mind, I'm not sure anything else I can add will, so I'll leave it at that.

Oh I completely got the odds of a straight & flush draw wrong ... Didn't even notice until now!

Still hating raising to 40BB, for the same reasons.

Giving your opponents odds to call doesn't mean a play is wrong.
We're still getting value from betting.
Our opponent is just not making a mistake by calling.
He could however make a mistake by folding a draw.

If we bet larger here, I think we're making a bigger mistake. Only getting called by hands that beat us.

It actually does. Take a simplistic example where we know an opponent is on exactly a FD with 9 outs, and assume he will call if getting the correct price and fold if getting the wrong price. In this scenario:

- It's +EV to bet more, not giving him the correct immediate odds to call, and getting a fold.
- It's -EV to bet less, giving him the correct or better immediate odds to call, and getting called.

I don't have time right now, but I'd recommend sitting down and doing the math on this.

Only problem is that in this situation we do not know if our opponent is on a draw or already has a made hand.

And I'd expect us to be ahead of many made hands that villain will continue with as well.