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Old 06-12-2017, 06:31 PM   #1
Keslen
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Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 5
25NL: Facing an Overbet on the River After Making Set

Do you think this river call is +EV? My plan, going into the river, was to check/call any non-ten and I'd've also folded to this over-bet on a non-ten while betting 2/3 on T and pot on T. As played, it seems like he's only beating me if he has JJ (in which case I accept the cooler) or a straight/flush made with a double back door draw (in which case, GG for sucking out) - meanwhile, he's got plenty of AA, KK, QQ and busted draws I can get value from by calling.

Or am I missing something?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

BTN: $35.23
SB: $30.08
BB: $26.29
Villain: $114.44 (over 51 hands: 14 VPIP, 12 PFR, 0 3B, 67 F3B, 0 CB, 100 FCB)
UTG+1: $27.87
UTG+2: $58.63
Hero (MP1): $42.08 [T T]
MP2: $15.21
CO: $30.50

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1
Villain is UTG raises to $0.75
2 folds
Hero [T T] is MP3 raises to $1.75
5 folds
Villain calls $1

Flop: ($3.85) [8 2 4] (2 players)
Villain checks
Hero [T T] bets $1.84
Villain calls $1.84

Turn: ($7.53) [8 2 4][J] (2 players)
Villain checks
Hero bets $4.79
Villain calls $4.79

River: ($17.11) [8 2 4][J][T] (2 players)
Villain bets $33.70
Hero [T T] calls $33.70 all in

Last edited by Keslen; 06-12-2017 at 06:38 PM.
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Old 06-13-2017, 09:11 AM   #2
pokerforumposter
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Re: 25NL: Facing an Overbet on the River After Making Set

Your 3 bet size is meaningless, also don't 3bet TT in general and especially vs UTG. Its hard for v to have a flush or a straight here since he shouldn't really have 79s and his flushes are basically AKdd, AQdd, KQdd which is only 3 combos. Your range looks like big pairs so villain will probably feel safe value betting a set or two pair on this coordinated board. However, I think most 14/12 will not slow play a set here on the flop or even the turn, especially so deep, especially with the threat of runouts that will kill their action. It doesn't make sense to call JJ on the turn and then donk jam flush river. It's not likely he is trying to rep the bdf either, its possible but not standard. I think he just floated the flop with diamond broadways, which is not hard when you are like 180bb deep, and now wants to get paid. It is highly unlikely he will play QQ/KK/AA like this, your range will mostly either beat those hands or fold to an overbet jam.
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Old 06-14-2017, 06:55 AM   #3
SleepySun
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Re: 25NL: Facing an Overbet on the River After Making Set

I wouldn't be raising UTG with pretty solid stats w/TT
To me it looks like AKdd, I dont see any bluffs at all to be hinest. The thinnest I can see it being is a set, but I would have imagined all sets would raise the turn.
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Old 06-14-2017, 01:51 PM   #4
cookedfish
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Re: 25NL: Facing an Overbet on the River After Making Set

Quote:
Originally Posted by SleepySun View Post
I wouldn't be raising UTG with pretty solid stats w/TT
I dont see any bluffs at all to be hinest.
What about missed club draw?
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Old 06-14-2017, 05:29 PM   #5
SleepySun
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Re: 25NL: Facing an Overbet on the River After Making Set

Quote:
Originally Posted by cookedfish View Post
What about missed club draw?
Why would villain c/c two streets with a club draw then shove when missed

a 14/12 just isn't going to play it that way
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