Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open 10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open

08-05-2017 , 11:48 AM
Have zero stats on villain but his stack size and bet sizing are fishy.

Nobody else is will be in the hand. Is this an easy shove?

What's villain's range here?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $68.65 (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 21)
SB: $7.11 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
Hero (BB): $29.97
UTG: $9.18 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 10)
UTG+1: $13.96 (VPIP: 11.88, PFR: 5.94, 3Bet Preflop: 2.04, Hands: 104)
MP: $7.30 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
MP+1: $16.95 (VPIP: 13.89, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 2.63, Hands: 72)
MP+2: $10.15 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: $10.00 (VPIP: 21.52, PFR: 16.46, 3Bet Preflop: 6.90, Hands: 79)

SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, MP raises to $1.20, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero ??
10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open Quote
08-06-2017 , 01:17 AM
You can't know his range with zero stats, if someone random sat at a live table and did a crazy raise their first hand, woudl you shove?
10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open Quote
08-06-2017 , 01:40 AM
Never folding. Either 3 bet to like 2.80 or something or shove. probably doesn't matter cause this guy is gonna give his money away.
10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open Quote
08-06-2017 , 08:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yori96
You can't know his range with zero stats
That's true. However we can never really know anyone's hand. We're just making educated guesses based on the information that we have. Usually that's HUD stats but since I don't have that to go on all I have is his stack size and bet amount.

Ok I'll give it a shot. I think he can have 1 of 3 hand types. These are

1. "This hand is too good to fold but I have no idea how to play it post-flop". {AK, QQ, JJ, AQs}. I think these are the most likely. Since I have two of the Queens this is heavily weighted toward AK/JJ
2. "I'm sick of getting 5 callers with my premiums so I'm going to raise it big to pay them to draw out on me" {AA/KK}. Medium chance of this. I've seen it happen before but very rarely since people really hate just winning the blinds with these hands.
3. "Random spazz/Lucky Hand/Cat stepped on my keyboard" {Other suited Broadway, Ax suited, AJo, AQo, all suited connectors }. Unlikely

So If I give Category 1 a weighting of 100, 2 a weighting of 30 and Category 3 a weighting of 5 I get:

Quote:
QQ: 59.5%
Weighted range: 40.5%


Just for the record, If I remove category 3 altogether and give categories 1 & 2 equal weighting then I get:

Quote:
QQ: 47.4%
range: 52.6%
10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open Quote
08-06-2017 , 03:23 PM
Brussels,

I agree but in position with QQ and no stats, I make the call every time. He either has me crushed or I have him crushed and I know that usually I'm ahead making the call for a few reasons :

Nobody sits at a table and barrels new to a game, it's a really bad idea because you're really only going to get called by nit hands.

If they're willing to do it they are either nutting or gambling and most people that are nutting wouldn't risk their whole stack first hand w/o KK+

I ship because I don't believe he has QQ beat 95% of the time there, live or online for his first hand. If he does good for him, I can't fold here and calling just gets me in trouble if I miss.
10nl Zoom: QQ vs 12bb open Quote

      
m