What's a good plan for the hand at this point?

I have a lot of show-down equity but no actual hand. However if I do try and get it in it's quite likely that I'll be an underdog to a lot of hands that will call me.


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $12.43 (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
SB: $9.65 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: $11.67 (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 50)
UTG: $13.52 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (UTG+1): $10.15
MP: $10.00 (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: $20.26 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 7.81, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 64)
MP+2: $11.92 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 99)
CO: $12.77 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J A

fold, Hero raises to $0.35, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players) 4 2 3
SB bets $0.51, Hero ??

Raise for value, 99% he has an overpair or lower FD here.

Well without a hand you have no actual show down equity, your hand equity needs the chance to be realised. I suppose the ace has some very fragile sd value.

Over 6 hands V is unknown. I don't play any fast poker, but the donk means he has equity, id assume some sets and over pairs. Possibly lower f/d's but does he donk out on most of these, or c/c c/r? Either way I think your a favourite vs his range. To compensate for possible straights and flushes I'd cut your outs down 19 to 14. That way your unlikely to be overestimating. This gives you 51% equity vs his range by the river.

The break even on the call is 2.56/1 28%. So calling is very close to 0 EV without any additions of implied odds when you hit or checks when you miss. I'd have to assume I have decent implied odds and he'll do some checking on turns.

Scare turn cards for a lot of his range that don't hit you are K,Q,10 possibly even 9 or 6. So calling works well without bloating the pot while in position leaving all options open on the turn.

I'm not sure how it's possible to get it all in given the stacks without being up against a very strong range. Once you 2bet, he 3bets and you shove it's hard to be up against anything less than two pair. But likely sets/straights.

A raise isn't bad though. You utilise any fold equity, make future scare cards scarier and I think disguise your flush draw better so improving your implied odds when you hits And I have you a at 56% vs his likely 2bet calling range.



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You're completely discounting 2-pair and sets from his donk range?

Good point

I think how the hand played out may have been in my mind when I was writing that description:

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $12.43 (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
SB: $9.65 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 6)
BB: $11.67 (VPIP: 10.20, PFR: 10.20, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 50)
UTG: $13.52 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 100.00, Hands: 2)
Hero (UTG+1): $10.15
MP: $10.00 (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 7)
MP+1: $20.26 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 7.81, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 64)
MP+2: $11.92 (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 2.13, Hands: 99)
CO: $12.77 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J A

fold, Hero raises to $0.35, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players) 4 2 3
SB bets $0.51, Hero raises to $1.75, SB raises to $9.30 and is all-in, Hero ??


So I guess what I was getting at is - is the flop 2bet optimal when it opens up the possibility of me getting 3bet and probably having to fold my equity or get it in bad?

That's a good question. My instincts say calling in position is better.

I'm taking V to be the average tight passive player, this is because he isnt stacked to 100BB and the only action we know he's done (although obviously a very small sample size is call pre) but also it keeps us safe early in getting to know him.

Does this look right as a capped calling range (I dont play zoom, or pokerstars),

JJ-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KJo,QJo,AQs-ATs,A5s-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s

with V's likely donking range;

JJ-22,A5s-A2s,65s,54s,43s,KhQh,KhTh,QhTh,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,7h6h

You have 36% equity vs that range to the turn. Pot odds of 2.57/1 - 28%. So you have the pot odds to call profitably. An immediate EV of +0.15. Not taking into consideration any future prospects.

%W CW %L CL
36.50% 1.31 63.50% 0.51 EV £0.15

This is his push range;

66-22,A5s-A4s,65s,54s,43s,7h6h,[50]JJ-77[/50],[30]KhQh,KhTh,QhTh,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h[/30]

Ive weighted the flushes and overpairs to down considerably here, do you think he gets here with any at all?

Pot odds;

Pot Call Ratio %
11.85 7.55 1.57:1 38.92%

EV;

[B]%W CW %L CL
48.10% 11.85 51.90% 7.55 EV £1.78[B]

SO against that range its never a -$ spot.

But if you tighten V's push range to only a few overpairs, no flushes and the rest straights and sets then the call is -$1.92.

Strange how what might seem like a simple question can evolve, this will be simple to so many too. One day..

His donk is pretty polarising and probably drops a lot of his drawing/1 pair hands. He'd likely check a lot of those. So to raise without a made hand given a lack of fold equity at this point seems the lesser EV of the two options.

The big difference with Zoom with regards to fishy players is that you don't get to get much of a sample size on them since for you to see 10 hands of theirs they'll need to survive 150 (if you're playing 1 table of it). Since they've usually busted out by then you instead have to go with smaller numbers of observations.

With that in mind I think the calling range is fair since we're operating in a bit of a vacuum and the donking range would indeed follow on from that original range.

I think this may be a tad optimistic. I don't recall seeing anyone getting it in with a non-nut flush draw in a while. I'm not sure 66 would do this either. Ditto the likes of A2 with no flush draw. Would someone really shove with bottom pair + a gutshot?

I cant see beyond: {JJ-88,55-22,65s,54s,43s}

Which has 52% equity vs AJs of hearts, which I guess makes the call +EV given the dead money.

Having said that though I think a leak of mine is getting mixed up between the regulars stack-off ranges and the fish's (with expensive consequences in both directions).


Amen!