I recently dropped down to 10nl so that I could learn to open up my pre-flop range and play a LAG-ier style whilst paying more placid opponents (and paying less for my inevitable mistakes in the process). So now I'm running 22/18 over 4k hands with a 7% 3bet and a 53% ATS.

I'm getting a bit paranoid though that at times some of the regular players are playing back at me since they probably think I'm full of crap. I've thrown away some decent TPTK/overpairs when raised on the turn vs some regs and wondered afterwards was I being too weak at the time. So anyway this hand is from a session earlier:

Villain is a regular at 16nl and 10nl. Seems to be playing a solid TAG game. Starts tables at both limits. Plays a lot of tables at once. He's beating both games at a low rate according to the hands I have on him

Hands: 773
VPIP/PFR/AF: 16/12/2.2
3bet/F3bet: 3/80
ATS: 33
Flop CBet/ Fold Flop Cbet: 42/58
Turn CBet/ Fold Turn CBet: 50/40
WTSD/W$SD/WWSF: 22/79/44


PokerStars - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: $10.66 (VPIP: 15.38, PFR: 9.62, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 52)
MP: $1.28 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 11.59, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 72)
CO: $8.73 (VPIP: 31.37, PFR: 23.53, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 52)
BTN: $13.49 (VPIP: 18.94, PFR: 14.02, 3Bet Preflop: 4.37, Hands: 1,049)
Hero (SB): $10.05
BB: $10.00 (VPIP: 13.64, PFR: 7.95, 3Bet Preflop: 5.71, Hands: 88)
UTG: $10.15 (VPIP: 16.33, PFR: 13.61, 3Bet Preflop: 3.51, Hands: 149)

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has J Q

fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.25, Hero calls $0.20, fold

Ok obviously this is a poor decision by me. He's got a 33% ATS and a 80% fold to 3bet. I honestly don't know what I was thinking. I was probably playing too many tables and saw that he had a low cbet-flop so thought that it might be easier to play OOP post-flop with him

Flop: ($0.60, 2 players) T 4 Q
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

I think this is standard enough although I'd be interested to hear of any alternative strategies. My plan for the hand at this point was to check/call it down.

Turn: ($1.20, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.85, Hero raises to $2.35, BTN (goes into the Time Bank and waits for it to go all the way down to 1 second)
raises to $12.94 and is all-in, Hero ?

I thought about calling behind again but what veered me toward raising was the thought that there were probably a lot of K-x type hands in his range that I didn't fancy giving a free card to and I could get some value from them before they became worthless on a brick river. Since I've played this hand so passively his range is super wide so I think I'm certainly ahead. But then he shoves and suddenly I need to revisit that assumption

Fold pre. As played don't x/r turn, range wise you're pretty capped on this sorta board and this hand makes a solid c/c/c plus you lose to fair few straights/sets. For that reason you gotta x/r/f.

Given your playing lag, could villain have put you on a draw if you have a high AF?

If as you said, villain has low cbet% what kind or range does he have when he cbets both flop and turn?

Villain has an ATS of 33% so that'll cover all pairs, all combos of 2 broadway and a hell of a lot of Ax and Kx hands (plus possibly all the suited connectors)

I have him c-beting 42% of time over 700+ hands.

So we hit the flop with one of our cards about 33% of the time so a simplistic way of looking at it would be that he cbets if he makes a pair, has some kind of draw or if he has position and the flop is very suitable for a c-bet (e.g. Q72 rainbow). He's probably not betting with complete air much.

The c-bet turn of 50% (obviously on a way smaller sample) probably indicates that he's not firing 2 bullets with air and possibly not with draws or medium strength show-down hands. He's possibly only firing again with top pair or monster type hands.

Ok so if that above were accurate his range I guess at this point is {AA,KK, QQ, JJ, 1010, 44, AK, AQ, KQ, QJ, Q10, Q9}.

I don't have access to an equity calculator right now so I can't see how my hand does against that range but I'm guessing not good

Wow, if that was the range my hand would have been ahead.

Removing the AA and AQ combos I'm still basically getting a coin-flip (which after factoring in the dead money would make calling +EV)


Would definitely be interested in hearing if others think that that range is too wide though

Due to the long time he took, i think he never has AK. This would be an easy shove for him, a shove of a few seconds.

He knows Hero never has TT, JJ, QQ or AK. So what our perceived range? 44, and exactly hands like QJ, QT, JT, KQ, all these type of conectors, suited or not, maybe K9s or 89s.

He seems to be pretty solid, and because all these sort of things i think he never goes AI w/ hands like Q9, maybe not even w/ AA or JT.

If he's playing a lot of tables and plays tight tag, a low ish ats and low wtsd then I'd assume he rarely bluffs and doesn't like putting himself in marginal situations. His cbet turn stat does narrow his range to one you have good equity against. But what would he 3bet all in?

I have;

81.4% 75.5% 11.8% {QQ-TT, 44, AKs, QJs, JTs, 98s, AKo, QJo}
Player 2: 18.6% 12.8% 11.8% [QhJs]

And would imagine it's close. But put in 12 combos of pure bluffs;

Player 1: 65.3% 60.6% 9.29% {QQ-TT, 44, AKs, QJs, JTs, 98s, AKo, QJo, 64o}
Player 2: 34.7% 30.1% 9.29% (QhJs)

Your breaking even at 35%.

Two assumptions I'd make is big bets on the turn are usually straight forward and players at nl10 either don't bluff enough or far too much.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If you think V takes all that time bank to shove w/ AK, why not K9s? And if you think he can shove w/ JTs, why not QT?

Yep you're right. That's the problem with using an Iphone app at work and having to edit while on the go. Although I didn't give k9 as a pre flop hand, would you?

Using flopzilla this is what I end up with;

QQ-TT,44,AKo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs,QTs,JTs,98s. Though im not too sure that this type of player pushes 2 pair to a 2bet on a straight card. QJo has 36% against that range, 9% chop.