I used to smoke, quit after 20 years. I would do it for $2500, follow the advice above. You won't ruin your lungs in a month. The cigs will cost you about $120 of the 2500, depending on brand. Also, get the weakest cigs you can find, now or carleton if they are still around. Make sure the money is escrowed.

Easiest bet in the world, for me. I was a smoker for 10 years but quit when I wanted to. If I had a few k on the line I would want to. Everyones different but you shouldn't find it too hard. I would up the bet and put way more on it, the more you bet the easier it will be

QFT, try to get more money on the bet (although the additional incentive will probably hurt your odds for this very reason against smart opponents). Partially because this sort of bet is something you really want to get paid off on, given the long-term potential downside and relative unpleasantness.

Smoking for a few months is not going to ruin your lungs for life.

interesting prop bet.

but after 30 days, how will you show that you have quit? if you have to not smoke for a period of time to demonstrate that you have quit and get paid, what happens if you smoke after that? will there be a lifetime bounty on you of the amount you wagered plus the amount you won if you are ever caught smoking?

Since it's mostly friends/coworkers it will be the honor system, the rules are I cannot smoke for two months after and I can never take up smoking (daily smokes)

From this it appears that you enjoy the occasional ciggy already? If this is the case, its not worth it unless it is a ridiculous amount of money. A pack a day for a month is a lot for a beginner smoker, to achieve this you will be smoking at every opportunity. You will get far too into it after a month and may not even care about the money at the end.

Once you get addicted, even after you quit, you remember what its like forever...

I never smoke casually, ive had maybe 3 cigarettes in my life. The deal is I can take as much time or as little time as I want to 'prepare' myself for the pack a day. Im really still considering the bet but I would like the cost of the smokes split. Some of my friends who are involved with the bet are starting to not want to take part in it anymore because they don't want to be responsible for me dying young if I don't quit.

don't do it

horrible bet horrible idea imo

I think I'd need to be getting 5:1 on 10k before I think about doing this.

The biggest key to winning is to not drink for those two months, especially around people who are betting on you to lose. I smoked a pack a week all through college and haven't bought a pack since I graduated 5 years ago. The only time I ever crave them is when I'm drunk and around people who are smoking.

haha believe it or not but my friends don't have 50k that is disposable for a smoking bet so that's not really an option

Yah, I know. I doubt I could find anyone willing to take the other side of that bet either. Those are just the stakes I'd have to be dealing with to be 100% sure I'd win.

Don't forget what I said, though, about drunk cravings being a serious threat to quitting cold turkey. Everyone I know who quit smoking gets intense cravings after three or four drinks.

how long do you have to stay quit for?

If you do decide to do it, do no drink while doing this bet. You will trigger some stupid, smoking urge while drinking switch and will increase the chance of long term addiction.

If you never smoke I highly doubt you could smoke a pack a day from the get go. I see some serious nicotene sickness at the start.

I really wouldn't do it unless there is lke 20k on the line if not more. If your friends don't have that kind of money. Too bad, looks like you will continue to make fun of them not being able to quit.

EDIT: quiting varies from person to person. SOme people can quit like the person above. 1 day stop and not even notice, others, like me, go thru massive withdrawal and cave eventually. Which one you are you won't know until you are hooked.

what about do heroin once every 2 days for a month and see if you can quit it after a month

sounds much harder