I kinda hate oscar betting, but The Artist at 1/4 - It's gotta be a lock right? Bet big??

I def say bet big, but what site lets you get big action on entertainment props?
I thought they had like $100 cap or something on a bet like that.

williamhill in the uk. doesn't say anything about a max bet atm

I used to bet the ponies and many times bet the 1/5 horses just figuring it was free money. I learned to ask myself, How will I feel if I lose this bet? and How will I feel if I win?

If I bet $100 and won I would just think, "cool, free lunch" But when It lost I felt like I was cheated and be pissed.

If you feel you got the best of it ( I think you do) and will accept either result just knowing it was the right play, go for it.

I'd say put all the money you can on that, but expect to lose b/c I doubt it is >50% to win. But 1/4 seems crazy. Maybe 1/2.5 would be more fair imo.

I think it's a big favorite, the other noms aren't really strong imo, but 1/4 is a bit mad. The line just changed to 2/9 now too..blehh. It was 1/3 last week before noms came out. That was the bet to make!

It's down to -700 or worse now.

Can't decide on Streep or Davis. I'm leaning towards Meryl simply because of the many past snubs and maybe winning on reputation a la Newman.

Entertainment betting is completely dif than sports betting. In sports, how the player or team or their opponent do that day matters!!! Not in entertainment betting, this is a popularity contest. Once a voter votes for Team A, that vote is done!!! No injury/off-day/letdown/spousal problem/etc is going to change that vote. The Artist is going to win Best Pic Picture!!! Not a popular thing to say on betting forum, but you can use the "L" word here. You only got to decide if tying up that money is worth it.

The Artist is virtually a lock at 1/7. I mean just throw $700 and get a free $100 bet basically.

Christopher Plummer win Best Supporting Actor...is a mortal lock. But -4000. So you'd have to risk $200 to get a free $5 wager

Why are we so convinced The Artist is a lock? Is there somewhere that tallied the votes already and did a projection? Have voters said who they've voted for? I just don't understand why everyone can be so sure.

By the wya, I took even worse odds on Robert Griffin to win the Heisman, but that was because there are websites that monitor what voters have said on TV or twitter regarding their votes. They did the math and made a projection with data to back it up.

ughhhh 1/7 wtf. Just doesn't feel worth it to me anymore even though I'm 100% certain it's winning.

I think everyone is certain it's a lock bc it has already won the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for best film. Also, it's the type of film that's oscar bait, with the whole being a well done, well received silent movie in 2011 thing going for it. Also, it's been really well publicized and the competition is kinda bleh.

ughhh 1/9 now on william hill. here's to missed opportunity !

Yeah, 'Best Picture' & 'Best Director' looks very VERY likely to go to 'The Artist' & Michel Hazanavicius.

It'd be a huge surprise if there's a backlash against 'The Artist' considering it also has the Producers Guild of America and the Directors Guild of America awards to back it up.

I'm surprised 'Best Actor' & 'Best Actress' are kind of pick'ems with Jean Dujardin & Viola Davis the frontrunners respectively but there's still some scepticism that George Clooney & Meryl Streep could still win.

If Jean Dujardin loses, he'll equal Russell Crowe's feat of having won the important precursor awards (the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild & the BAFTAs) but losing the Oscar. It'd be almost bizarre if Jean Dujardin loses 'Best Actor' but George Clooney has 'surprised' before pipping Paul Giamatti to 'Best Supporting Actor' a few years ago.

Viola Davis vs. Meryl Streep for 'Best Actress' should be interesting but the SAG win for Viola Davis should just give her the edge. BAFTA and the Golden Globes going for Meryl Streep doesn't mean too much unless it translates to a win at the Oscars.

Elsewhere, there's some tremendous 'value' in trying to guess who the winners of the smaller technical categories will be but it's difficult to work out what they'll be.

I'm not convinced at all that its a 100% lock. Unfortunately I think many people will fellate themselves by voting The Artist b/c its an opportunity to make a statement about how Hollywood needs to make less blockbusters and take more chances on unique, high quality movies. Plus, I think people who have not watched all the movies, or don't take voting too seriously will all prolly just pencil in The Artist for the hell of it.

Expert analysis here.