Seems like Esports is dying because they can't find a sustainable business model. Although I have one for them, players should compete as we compete in poker, which sounds sustainable.

Thoughts?

Poker model works for poker because enough players have income from outside the game they can afford to lose and my two year old grand daughter can beat the best player in the world over 25% of the time in NLHE with 100BB buy in with a two word strategy of all in every hand. A good player has under 1% chance of beating a great player in Esports so the fish get slaughtered too quickly.

Not accurate xDDD Tell that to Phil Ivey, Timex, Antonius... I could be here all day long

Also, that's why you have stake limits and I would bet 1M your grandfather, with all due respect, can't beat a pro player 25% of the time... Maybe 1% and maybe I'm exaggerating

Players grind from micro to high stakes because the player skill increases exponentially as you move up stakes. It's the player's responsibility to know where he should play. It's like you play soccer, and want to play against Real Madrid in CL expecting a win. Doesn't work that way... You have to develop skills to be amongst the best and that's through stakes.

That's why you have stakes from micro to high so you don't compete with the top players. Knowing the playing field is an essential skill to be successful in any sport, job, or activity... If you think it's a game of chance and not skill, then I believe you're approaching it incorrectly. Tell that to Nash and to PioSolver xD

I think the 25% figure is not about "beating" the pro long-term (that approaches impossibility when volume increases), it's winning a single, no-rebuy HUSNG 100bb deep. Atc shoving does win around 25% vs the optimal calling range.

It is a remote possibility but... cmon do you really believe it?! Also, a pro playing in micro, small, low stakes is a loss of his/her time due to the WR. Will happen in Esports too

I don't understand what there is to believe. I know beyond any doubt that any two shoving wins 25%+ vs any strategy. You can't magically make your high pair hold up more than 75%. And that is when the SNG ends.

sure

It's preflop all in for gods sake, it's not skill based what cards come on the board

Well, in the beginning of fighting game tournaments is was like poker. There were no sponsorships and everyone pretty much paid their own way. This was from about 1992 until 2008 or so. Then "esports" took over the fighting game community.

In that sense, esports will never die.

They'll just go back to community-run leagues with token payouts. You can find Starcraft tournaments with $100 first place prizes on any given week.

OP is indeed delusional if he thinks it can move to a player-funded model like poker tournaments, and Vanhaomena already explained why. The skill gap between the top players and the good-but-not-great players is more like a continent-sized chasm and there's no pre-determined deck of cards to save them. You just simply get crushed with no hope of victory. Plus, where are all of these 15-22 year old kids going to get their entry fees when they spend 18 hours a day grinding the online ladder?

The days of $35,000,000 Dota tournaments are probably over forever. Being a professional caster will go back to one of those passion pursuits where you aren't in it for the money, sort of like teaching. It already doesn't pay well, and sometimes not at all when the tournament organizers go belly-up and stiff the talent, but you can eat.