Been playing all night in extremely frustrating session. Basically been in just 3 big pots in over 2000 hands, all 3 straight+, all 3 lost to sliiiiightly better cards.
Culmination of the night was this hand. BTN is a 50/30 player with 15% 3bet, and I've been able to milk lots of chips out of him by check-calling (he seemed to always go all the way to the river and then fold).




I had to quit for tonight after this hand to avoid tilting (feels weird but I should do it more often). Have you ever folded a full house to a slightly better full house? Is it even possible :P? I know I could have tought about villain havng QQ+, but remember he's a 14% 3bet who often goes to the river with jack-high or something..

How can I avoid losing so often to hands that are only "one step" better than mine? I feel like it happens all the time, while the opposite happens so rarely that I celebrate every time..

Oh man... fold pre to start. River donk shove is just bad on many levels.

Do not open this pre with this button behind (switch gears, open really tight, making money of his loosing 3-bets). Or open but fold to his 3-bet.

As played river donk is ridiculously bad.

BTW Zeebo's theorem is just funny garbage.

You can start by not playing hands that are easily dominated pre like this one

there are a couple huge mistakes in this hand.

pre you shouldn't be opening JTo from CO vs a 50/30/15 BTN. Once he 3bets its 4bet bluff or fold, calling is your worst option. you can 4bet if villain actually folds to 4bets but if hes just a complete spaz then fold against the 3bet and don't open JTo vs this guys BTN anyway. Villains value hands have you crushed and you will still lose money vs villains bluffs unless he is super passive postflop. Calling the 3bet w/ JTo is a disaster. Just because your opponent is LAG doesn't mean you just call his 3bets crazy wide. being OOP It should mean you establish a wider range for both your value 4bets and 4bet bluffs therefore reducing your flat calling range.

River donk shove is just ridiculously bad in so many ways. Not trying to be rude but I'd like to hear what you were thinking. If you perceive this guy to be a spewy LAG then don't you want to let him bluff OTR? aren't you assuming that villain is some spewtard that has way too many bluffs here? You are losing so much money by not letting this guy bluff OTR. Are you worried about villain checking back 99 or TT?!?! he doesn't double darrel those very often at all. What are you expecting to get called by when you shove? Villain has exactly 0 worse hands that will call OTR. If villain calls OTR it is either a chop or you are beat, villain will never be calling with worse. So basically OTR you decided to fold out all of villains bluffs and shove for a chop or worse. a 50/30/15 will probably double and triple barrel w/ his bluffs at a very high frequency. You have to realize that 100% of the value of your hand is as a bluff catcher. Villains value range is 8x, QQ-AA and Jx, nothing worse. his bluffing range is likely much larger than this. However, you decided to rip in the money OTR which just folds out all his bluffs and leaves behind 0 combinations of hands that you have beat when you get called. So, to be brutally honest, this river shove shows a complete lack of understanding of fundamental poker knowledge.

I mean, people are not supposed to fold 22 on a AAAKQ board?
But even in a XXYYZ board where X>Y it's not that hard to fold a Y full house.
It doesn't make much sense.

Zeebo's theorem is a population read from 2006. Treat it accordingly.

obsolete

Fold pre.

I understand that he has a high 3b % and that he is playing alot of his hands on the button but your range is simply too weak for it to be a profitable play in the long run.

Lets assume that you had J10s here, and you opted for a call, which is still pretty loose, out of position post flop. There is too much reverse implied odds even to a light 3 bet. Think about all the hands that beat you by the turn. 78, 89, 108, 58s, A8s, A8o, AJ, KJ, QJ, QQ, 44, K8s, KK, AA, JJ. This means you should be folding most turns.

Furthermore, river donk shove is even worse. You are folding out all bluffs, getting called and splitting with all jacks+paying rake which is -EV, unnecessarily bloating the pot. Also, you obviously lose to all his value hands. In conclusion, you are only ever getting called by better. A 4, nor a pair lower than jacks can never ever call here, and by the turn bet you can safely assume he has a pretty nutted range.

You beat pure air, a few very bad semi bluffs on the turn, etc

Overall hand was played very bad, alot of mistakes.

In relation to 'zeebo's theorem' it more or less applies to you, not villian. It is pretty clear that the worst of fish would still fold pairs lower than jacks unless he was absolutely convinced you were bluffing.

Raising pre is totally fine.

The thing is that you should have a lot more better hands to defend against his 3b with.

where u been mate?

Hi! Been grinding poker a lot more than usual, just stayed away from poker forums for a while

Out of nl2 yet ?

Yeah, i`m struggling at nl50 atm.

I quit zoom about 3 months ago, and started reg tables. Glad i made that choice.

I also play 4-5k hands a day with rare breaks tho

Many reg tables running on stars?

Many, i just table select like a mad man Becomes annoying at times, but its still worth it.

Fair enough, gl to you then!

Very big thanks!

Pre-flop: I think raising is fine, although I don't mind folding this considering the BTN has a 15% 3-bet. When you do get 3-bet this is an awful spot to call. You're OOP, with a hand that's very easily dominated.

Flop: Villain should be betting this flop with almost his entire range here, so calling is by far the best play.

Turn: His continued aggression should be concerning, but against a LAG who will bluff a lot I do think this is a call.

River: Do not donk shove. Considering we're relying on him bluffing a lot, this bet is folding out all the hands we beat, and getting called by all better hands. Really poor play here. It's kind of close between X/C and X/F. A LAG player like this is going to have a much wider value range and a lot more bluffs, but I since this is a really awful river to bluff I don't think he's doing this with worse, since all we have is a bluff-catcher.

Realistically, we're calling in the hope of a chop, so we should fold this.