villain: 90 hands: 18/14/2.5; AF:4.5/river aggression 50%



Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

SB: $5.20 (104 bb)
BB: $6.80 (136 bb)
Hero (UTG): $5 (100 bb)
MP: $6.42 (128.4 bb)
CO: $6.03 (120.6 bb)
BTN: $2.12 (42.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A J
Hero raises to $0.15, MP folds, CO calls $0.15, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 8 7 J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.20, CO raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.57) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($1.57) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, CO raises to $5.28 and is all-in, Hero....throws up in his mouth?

I would have this in my XC flop range because this board hits his range alot more than it does yours and you have Ac.

By the river his bluff % is literally null because of how things ran out. He shouldn't have KJ in his range either.

Fold.

^ flop is an easy cbet. Fold now.

^idk about that

you can fold flop

as played fold river

fold now yea

b/f flop bigger, x/c is bad

I'm just a 5NL noob and I could be wrong here, but I think that when you're UTG in 6max micros games that we should be looking to increase our open raise to 4xbb instead of the standard 3xbb. I can't tell you how many times I would open UTG with AJo 3xbb only to get like 2-3 callers and be oop with AJo. Talk about a terrible spot :/ If you raise is 4xbb preflop though, the flop pot will be a tad larger so you can bet a tad larger on the flop as well.

The villain is 18/14 which shows that he's calling with a smallish portion of his hands. That 4% difference would likely be filled with various suited connectors. If I had to guess, I'd say his preflop calling range is 55-88, 56s, 67s, 78s, 89s, 9Ts, JTs, QJs. Based on the VPIP/PFR numbers of the villain, I'd say that calling range makes sense.

On the flop, this is a fold every time. I mean, its possible he has KJ/QJ in his range here sometimes. But more often than not, you're up against 9T, 77, or 88 here.

In fact, with how the hand played out on the flop/turn I'm even more convinced that he has 77 or 88, everytime. These hands are in most people's calling ranges, not many people at 5NL are gonna be 3betting you with 77 or 88. Furthermore, the way the hand was played on the flop and turn proves he had 77 or 88. He 3bet you for value as well as to "protect" his hand from flush draws. The turn pairs the board and the villain decides to check as well. This is how you know he's got a boat now, he has absolutely no reason to bet this turn here and he knows it. By the villain not betting the turn he accomplishes the following

- he allows flush draws to chase, hopefully paying out his full house.
- he allows Jx hands to think "he checked the turn, tptk must be good!"

And finally, the river shove confirms villain has 77/88 every time because he knows his all in bet is getting called often here. That river shove is NEVER a bluff. That river shove is a "I have a full house and want you to call with your three of a kind" shove.

Very interesting hand, keep posting these hands and you'll be able to navigate through these situations much easier.

And I'm no pro, but I'd be cautious of opening AJo UTG. UTG is a terrible place to be with AJo and 1-2 callers ahead. I'd raise AJo UTG if I know I have donks ahead that will call with AT or lower, but even then it's negligible. UTG range is something like 99+, KQs, AJs+, AQo+. Even 99/AJs can get you into trouble UTG.

thankfully OP included river aggression...

Really should say you're being sarcastic. I bet some people look at that and will think you're being truthful.

Hard to tell over the internet and ye, betting flop is better.

well, it should be clear by now everything I post is sarcastic

should be pretty obvious here though?

Ye for all the regs here, just saying though for a 5nl guy who doesn't play as much poker (or for not as long) he's not necessarily going to know.

yeah don't check/call flop at 5nl

uh, yeah, there should be a sticky involving a mini turbo basic course in statistics or something

Pretty easy fold. He is almost never bluffing and his line makes sense with a flopped set if he is bad. And it's nl5 so story checks out.

Two plus two needs a sarcasm emoticon so badly

But what if...you are being sarcastic right now?

Could he ever be bluffraising the flop here? Or can't we expect moves like this on NL5? 44 would make perfect sense then imo, so fold riv anyway...