zoom villain was 24/16 over 112 hands had never c/r out of 7 opportunities, AF of 2
It looks fine, if he hasn't c/red before then it could just be TT or 44, even if he does bluff it's going to be with strong draws like AdQd, AdJd, QdJd and there aren't very many combos. I'd think about folding flop but that might just be too nitty.
Villain is 13/8 over 200 hands (and 8/8 in EP and MP), 0/1 fold to 3bet, AF 2. Fold to cbet 3/8 (1/1 in 3bet pot) and fold to turn cbet 0 (0/2). I was running 30/27 or so at the time (mostly as a result of stealing this nit's big blind - his fold to steal was 91), though only 2% 3bet (1/42). There were a couple of passive fit or fold players at the table, so my flop cbet was at 80% (12/15) and my turn cbet was 40% (2/5). No major history, except he had floated my cbet a few hands previously and I had check-folded the turn on a KK58hhdd board.
His standard open was 3x, so his small open was unusual. The flop cbet on a dry flop seems standard. My turn barrel is questionable, but I felt that he could easily float the flop and with my low turn cbet, a second barrel would be pretty convincing and could fold out a small pair if he was set mining/floating. After I spike TPTK on the river, my thought is that he is unlikely to call a 3rd barrel with worse, but that he might think I could be pushed off of Qx or JJ-TT here if I check, so my plan was to check-call. Given the way he played the hand (particularly the unusual open), I'm only really worried about {99,88,33}, which are 9 combos.
When he shoves, though, I'm a little concerned. Standard call because of SPR? Or fold because this looks like a set?
Villain is 13/8 over 200 hands (and 8/8 in EP and MP), 0/1 fold to 3bet, AF 2. Fold to cbet 3/8 (1/1 in 3bet pot) and fold to turn cbet 0 (0/2). I was running 30/27 or so at the time (mostly as a result of stealing this nit's big blind - his fold to steal was 91), though only 2% 3bet (1/42). There were a couple of passive fit or fold players at the table, so my flop cbet was at 80% (12/15) and my turn cbet was 40% (2/5). No major history, except he had floated my cbet a few hands previously and I had check-folded the turn on a KK58hhdd board.
His standard open was 3x, so his small open was unusual. The flop cbet on a dry flop seems standard. My turn barrel is questionable, but I felt that he could easily float the flop and with my low turn cbet, a second barrel would be pretty convincing and could fold out a small pair if he was set mining/floating. After I spike TPTK on the river, my thought is that he is unlikely to call a 3rd barrel with worse, but that he might think I could be pushed off of Qx or JJ-TT here if I check, so my plan was to check-call. Given the way he played the hand (particularly the unusual open), I'm only really worried about {99,88,33}, which are 9 combos.
When he shoves, though, I'm a little concerned. Standard call because of SPR? Or fold because this looks like a set?
You're actually barely getting odds to draw to a full house here, assuming villian doesn't fold a flush ever on the river. Factor in that he may be randomly bluffing/oddly protecting a made hand, and giving up on the river and I think a call is +EV.
^^^Reads on UTG and villain? How much have you been 3betting?
At 5NL this is often a fold pre, as BTN cold 4bet big (to 30bb) an UTG short-stacked open and an MP 3bettor with 2 deep stacks left to act, which is super strong. However, can't make any suggestion or put him on a range without any background.
^^^Reads on UTG and villain? How much have you been 3betting?
At 5NL this is often a fold pre, as BTN cold 4bet big (to 30bb) an UTG short-stacked open and an MP 3bettor with 2 deep stacks left to act, which is super strong. However, can't make any suggestion or put him on a range without any background.
sorry, posted this before i went to bed, thought i'd put the stats with it lol
villain is 23/20/ 3bet 0% / 4bet 0%
over 23 hands, the sample size on the 3+bet is only 2 hands though, I have 3bet 7%
on the raw numbers i think its a fold, as you've described the situation. Given the preflop action, and say i was deep also, what would you suggest on this flop? Check/call, reevaluate turn?
sorry, posted this before i went to bed, thought i'd put the stats with it lol
villain is 23/20/ 3bet 0% / 4bet 0%
over 23 hands, the sample size on the 3+bet is only 2 hands though, I have 3bet 7%
on the raw numbers i think its a fold, as you've described the situation. Given the preflop action, and say i was deep also, what would you suggest on this flop? Check/call, reevaluate turn?
UTG's stats are relevant as well. The tighter UTG opens, the more villain has to be concerned that UTG has left to act when he makes his cold 4bet (and the more villain has to be concerned that you are less likely to be 3betting light).
Your best case scenario is that villain is 4betting JJ+,AK. Villain is not doing this with AQ (to which you have blockers) or worse. I also think AK is pretty unlikely, since that is basically a semi-bluff and I would expect villain to 4bet to around 25bb instead of bombing it to 30bb. So let's say he does this with JJ+,AKs.
On the flop, villain bombs it to 45bb, which pot commits him, given your stack. If you shove, he's getting 4:1 odds, so he's not going to fold after putting 75bb into the pot. His range at this point is pretty much {KK+,JJ,AsKs}, which means you are toast. Check/fold.
Very tough spot, but I think if it's the first time and if I haven't noticed any super-aggro tendency, I'd fold (but I'm a bit nitty ...)
he's likely not doing that with QQ; at best he's hoping the flush draw with AsQs and we don't even have the position; he might have called with pp thinking of his implied odds when he hits the flop
Two Plus Two
A
T
Linear Mode
