[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37730516

BTN: $48.58 (485.8 bb)
SB: $19.10 (191 bb)
BB: $10.46 (104.6 bb)
UTG: $9.08 (90.8 bb)
Hero (MP): $12.20 (122 bb)
CO: $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with T 9
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, CO folds, BTN raises to $1.10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.35) 8 K J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

Turn: ($7.35) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.60 and is all-in, BTN folds

Flop is like WTF,but I assume we have lot of implied odds if we hit and we have beckdoor so....Turn looks like if he bets we should just jam and have no fold equity but we dont want to let him check A highs so DB look like good enough option.What do you think?

P.S.I think pre is close would fold vs this sizing if we are 100BB deep but we are deeper so I made a call.

I like how you played the hand. Good reasoning. I like that you are both more than 100BB deep while playing this hand oop. If you were 200BB deep here, would you play the turn the same way or would you go for a X/R?

I would fold flop. When villain overbets this flop I'd expect a double barrel at a high frequency so we don't actually have great pots odds. Plus our implied odds aren't so great when we hit a Q, not to mention reverse implied odds. Rather call with QTs or overfold.

OTT, think what are we doing with our value hands? Villain's range is ahead of ours, so with our weaker hands we want to check to SD and with our stronger hands we want villain to continue to bluff. That means we are always bluffing when we donk here, which makes it very easy for villain.
We want villain to check back A high as we get to realise our equity, and we can easily bluff them off it OTR, so donking isn't great in my opinion, want to hear your thoughts on this

Good combination of pot equity + fold equity OTT, problem is preflop... So 22bb made the difference for you to call instead of fold.?

I agree that we dont rep much ott, but hands that want to check turn and fold riv will fold anyway ott and its better to bluff with sone equity, and if we check and V bluff jam he still has the best time and we are priced in to call so its better for us if he folds those too.

These points are valid but all our value hands want to check, so we are bluffing always here so villain can start going crazy and call with A high. Plus GII vs A high is fine as long as we're getting the odds. Villain can't start value betting A high vs us as we have so much value in our range, it only works specifically vs our hand.

Think of it as an overall strategy, if villain bluffs with A high we profit with our value and if we have the pot odds we are also profiting with our draws. If we start donking with out value, we miss value from these bluffs and are betting into a stronger range where we start to value own ourselves. You're thinking specifically vs 1 hand, where we should be thinking it as a strategy range vs range.

this isnt good, turn doesnt make any sense, you simply need to fold flop.

+1

Can't see villain folding any value hands on the turn. Think you just got lucky he had air this time.

We dont have much problem forming a balanced rage of some JJ 88 and 9Ts QTs AQs with beeckdoors.Its much better if we bet and he folds AQ beause then our EV vs that hand is full pot but if he jams and we call it off our EV is close to 0,which youll agree its pretty big difference.In theory if betting has higher EV then checking we should bet.

...what? Now do that same thing for JJ.

When we have JJ or him?

Either, really. But you can't just say "I win more vs. his air with a bluff" without saying you win a lot less vs. his air with made hands.

That's probably getting sidetracked though. You're talking about donk jamming a blank turn into a stronger range.

Good luck with that.

We can form a balanced donking range, but we're betting into a stronger range on this board, therefore it's not going to be profitable.

You gain EV vs this one hand, and a couple airballs, but lose way more EV to the rest of villains range. You're thinking is straight up wrong. We can't think vs 1 hand, think of the entire range of hands and make EV calculations on everything single one and you'll find we'll lose money with a donking range here.

I fold pre

AP I jam flop for sure. Donk care if he has a set of kings or whatever.

glgl

If you do the math we need 14 % of folds ,so it should be obv that we are better of betting then checking because if he dose bet we are kind on the edge of call.Vs range is not that stronger
Lets say you are V and you know my strategy is to DB with this combo draws and few sets and then c/c with AK and rest of my strong hands and c/f draws that didnt improve in equity like 9Ts.Tell me what is good strategy vs that?

Only set you probably have is JJ here, 88 would be too weak MP vs BTN imo, villain definitely has a stronger range with KK, AA and more AK combos. Two things, donking is horrible when villain has overbet flop where villain is likely to have a very strong range and it's going to be a lot of work to balance this correctly for something which is, if it is at at all, very marginally profitable.

The good strategy vs that would be to play a balanced range, which is what you'd have difficulty with. Not sure if this is true but villain could start calling with Jx as that blocks your sets, meaning you only have 1 combo of JJ.

88 should be a okish call given we are little bit deep,we should have all AK combos we should not 4b those semi deep MPvsBTN.Its true that he has top set and over pair more often.

"The good strategy vs that would be to play a balanced range"-if that is true then my strategy is ok because it can not be exploited in any other way.
Overbetting Jx on the flop would be a terrible play and calling would be too.

Either way, donking after an overbet OTF is pretty bad. You're just looking for an excuse to make donking fine, it's far easier to check all our range here and just call when we have the odds with JTs, and get more value with our JJ.

Just because its easier dosnt make it better.If donking is bad as value bet then it should be fine as a bluff.I dint say we should bet balanced range in this spot because like 99 % Vs will fold A-high flush draws AQ QT AT 9T 89 ect so it should be ok form exploitative point of view and in theory if he starts calling me with Ax 8x then we can add some value hands to balance our bluffs without having a problem with our checking range.

We don't have any stats or any reads, and that would be a critical difference. We do know he has 500 bbs so he's been running hot and probably feels like he can do no wrong. In my experience this either means they are playing good or they are gambling it up big time.

I'd want to figure out which is which. This whole hand seems odd in terms of an overall strategy against this type of villain. If you have seen him throwing his stack around, three betting light, overbetting the pot and then folding to aggression or getting called and turning over air, that would be very good information. But with a villain like that my overall plan would be to shift from a balanced approach to an exploitative approach that would include playing a value range against and doing more checking and calling than usual.

Maybe if he 3 bet smaller or bet the flop smaller and we had a deeper SPR we could dodge and jab and float and stab, but our plan kind of goes out the window when he starts bombing here. Not the right type of hand for shoveling in a 122bb stack in 1-2 streets.

So for me, against an unknown villain I would see no reason to call this three bet preflop out of position.

On the flop facing that type of overbet I would just give it up.

As played shoving the turn seems very spewy for the reasons others have sited. I just don't believe people play KK or JJ this way. They would either check call (remember my game plan against this would be to trap), check raise, or architecture a pot in which it can all get in by the river with two bets, not just one on the turn. Now, I understand you can try to level that type of thinking and say you could play sets that way to try to rep draws and get action with your sets...but this is leveling ourselves at 10NL, and it contradicts your shove anyway because if you would play a set like this as a trick to make it look like a draw and get action, then that means that you think you'll get called a lot.

Here's the thing. If you ran this out 1,000,000 times, 8-9s facing a 3 bet out of position, and then facing an overbet on the flop the times you called...I just think that many times you are going to have to c/f flop, and the times you float him many times you are going to have to c/f turn, and the times you pick up equity and shove many times he is going to snap you with KJs, or AK, or even A-x of bigger clubs, or a loose call with Q-10 that is actually ahead, or a set, etc. Over the long run it seems like you are at all times risking disproportionately large parts of your stack versus what you can win at all times.

Trust me, I get the play. In the end it seems like you decided, "You're a big stack and a bully and you can't always get your way, I'm going to outplay you like Mikey outplayed Johnny Chan this one hand, and I'm going to call bs and bet my stack you don't have it this time..." As they say, All-In works every time but once. And again, if villain is indeed an aggro-tard that overbets a ton I think trapping is better in general than trying to out aggro him. This seems more ego based than strategy based. I get the temptation, but this approach is playing with fire.

I have a bit of a different opinion to be honest. When he over bets the flop I think it's actually pretty weak and seems like he's trying to scare you off a middling type hand.

I don't know the player but I don't think many people at all would play top pair, a set or an over pair like that. Sure the board is has an SD but it's not monotone or two tone so not sure why he's over betting when you can comfortably triple brl to get stacks in by the river

That said I think he has AQ a lot of the time as to what you should do otf, personally for the those reasons I actually think I like raising the flop, you have at least 28% equity against top set and 36% equity against top pair and AA if he did have it

Fair points about turn play. As played shoving isn't spewing. My assumption would be that villain could call with any set, AK, AQc, or KJ.

Against this range you have 30% equity so even if you got called close to 100% of the time you'd be close to break even. So the question is how often will you get folds to make this profitably. Thinking about his pre flop 3 betting range, and then the part of this range that overbets pot, I think he has these hands a lot...but not 100%. There is going to be some A-x, some QQ or 10-10, and plenty of other random crap in there. I'd imagine you get called no more than 50% here.

So half the time you break even, half the time you scoop the pot, overall that's pretty good EV on turn (like putting in $8.60 and averaging an ending stack of $11.65, so +$3.00). If I did my math wrong I'd love to be corrected.

That said, I still am skeptical that the plan of calling pf and calling flop with the intent to bomb the river is overall +EV. Most of the time a club won't fall, and that means you miss your spot to make this jam. Putting in $2.60 only to not improve is pretty bad, and that is going to happen far more often.

Very interesting hand, thank you for sharing.