What do we think of this fold? When he C bets that flop into 2 opponents I think a flush draw is probably his most likelt hand along with maybe QJ with a backdoor flush draw, but once the Q comes I think he is just checking that back on the river. What hands should we call with here that aren't flushes? We need to be good 30% of the time. Do we just call with 10 8 and the sets or do we even call with 33? Feedback appreciated thanks.

I'm not sure about pre (may or may not be optimal not sure, others can comment), but I like postflop overall.

OTT, our raise is giving him 3:1. So if he has any sort of a flush + str combo draw, he is getting the right price to call. We should be raising bigger than that if we are putting him on a draw. If he has a naked flush draw, then the raise size is fine but given how connected that board is, he can have a combo draw pretty often.

OTR, I can't imagine him shoving AQ or QJ or KQ at all, esp after you raised turn. That's pretty much we are ahead of. Fold is good.

I don't know if raising turn OOP would be such a great idea with T8o. But lets say we somehow have T8o here, we need to think if he can shove 33 or 77 OTR. TBH I think 33 and Q9 are the same here in terms of relative hand strength.

It's also good to think about how it plays out if you don't raise turn. He bets 0.40 and we call. Pot is $1.67 OTR. Let's say we check and he bets $1.2. We still need to be right 30% of the time as before but for a smaller amount (reduces variance if you care about that) and we can x/f profitably to some specific bad cards like 5h, 6h, 8h, Th or Jh.

The downside to x/c turn and x/deciding river is that even other than hearts and 5h, 6h, 8h, Th or Jh, there aren't many rivers that we can profitably bluff catch on and he can bluff us correctly *if* he is balanced.

I'd prefer raising turn for this reason.

PS: OTR we have pretty much openly declared that we don't have a flush or a non-flush straight. Not a fun spot against a thinking opponent (which I think villain is not in this case given he started with 80BB)

I know they are all basically bluff catchers but dont we need to call with the top 30% of our range to stop us getting overbluffed. Once we check the river we basically never have a flush. So I think we need to vall with some of our sets/ straights, otherwise we always x/f the river.

Actually what we need is to be right 30% of the times we make the call. Our calling with top 30% of our range is not necessarily equivalent to our being right 30% of times we make the call.

In order for us to not get overbluffed in this spot, two things need to happen:
a) either he goes to showdown with a weaker shove range and hence we call wider
b) or we need to make sure when we get to showdown we can call with a higher frequency with a stronger range than we have.

So unless we can be *sure* that we will not lose at least a solid chunk of the times if we call with a straight or set, we'd have to fold more frequently.

All of this, of course, doesn't matter if you have a read on the guy and you can be reasonably confident that he can shove worse than a flush here.

By this do you mean we should mix in checking some flushes on the river?

I agree with Astrobeaver, probably a fold preflop.

As for postflop, flop is fine and turn is OK. I agree with Astro that you should raise more (could even shove since it's likely the best hand in our range OTT). We could balance the shove by shoving KhTh 57% of the time (V getting ~43% pot odds at shove, V range: AA,QQ,99,77,Q9s,AhQh,KhQh,QhJh,QhTh,QcTc,AQo vs above with 1:0.57 weight has ~43% equity)

As played, he's shoving all flushes OTR and perhaps AhAx, so I believe the fold is good.

Note: May have done some calculation errors above and V calling range is arguable but general idea should stand.

wp

dont fold pre lol