Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 3057141
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I wonder what is he folding on the turn? Should I barrel? And when he calls turn and only JT gets there, will he ever fold? Also QKo is a big portion of his range in my eyes. He shouldnt have AKo, so what hands does he have here? Two combos of K9s maybe, 3 combos of 99 and 3 of 22. (Which probably shove turn) Then there are 9 combos of QK that get there. And 12 combos of KJo that may fold or may call? But some may even fold turn. I guess this a c/f then. But what if the river was the 6c? Should I fire?

BTN: $10.83
SB: $6.25
Hero (BB): $10.30
UTG: $10.19
MP: $5.71
CO: $12.98

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with A 5
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) K 9 2 (3 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets $0.49, Hero raises to $1.60, CO folds, BTN calls $1.11

Turn: ($4.15) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.10, BTN calls $3.10

River: ($10.35) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $5.83 all in, Hero folds

His range seems value heavy OTR. By betting you would be praying he has a Kx he's folding, TP, or some busted FDs/combo draws, but I think that's the smallest part of his range. I think going for 2 streets is fine but most river cards won't be worth bluffing IMO.

Is villain a reg?

I don't agree with your analysis if he is.

Rega won't coldcalls with K9s or KJo. Also I think 99 and 22 get it in OTF.

I think his range is mainly suited broadway Kx hands or a few worse flush draws.

I like the flop ch/r and turn barrel, but I'm unloading OTR

Oh yeah true regs dont have KJo here. What are you trying to get to fold on the river then? The 3 + 3 combos of KJs and K10s?

Yea

Bet turn slightly smaller and jam river.

It is easy to overbluff river. You have some 6 sets for value no more, bluff 2 or 3 combos otr. Ofc when A5s belongs to bluffing range everything OK, it is kind of difficult to decide what is bluff when we do not know what is your range otr.
Btw the hand can be call flop too and Q otr is better than blank for bluff.

sqz pre

x/j turn seems ok

You should have JT, K9, and some players (not I) will have KQ for value as well. I'm going to bluff the best draws that missed 45hh/A3hh/A4hh/A5hh. I can't see too many other hands I'll have as a bluff here as QJhh/QThh make a pair otr and definitely not shoving those.

OOP, I tend to take a c/c line with my big FDs and a c/r line with my mid FDs.

With that said, I HATE your sizing on the turn. You picked up some equity on the turn, but you're still only on a semi bluff/combo draw. IF I were to lead (which would not be a given) I would not go more than 1/2 pot. I'd prolly lean to a c/c again strictly because of the added strght draw. ( No more than 1/2 pot though)

River is clear fold.

Also, I think you are severely underestimating V's range here. Unless you have info that you didn't post, given the action, sets, AA, K9, QJhh, JThh, Kxs are all possiblities here

Guess I should bet turn for half pot so lower FD's can call, then I shove river to fold out lower draws and maybe some Kx. I still wonder if he folds Kx tho.

What about x/jamming turn? He may fold Kx more often with that line? and dont think he calls middle pairs on the flop.

I don't think he should fold almost any KX to that any fwiw

I think 3bet pre is better play then call but ok call is fine too.
Flop is better just c/c you keep his GS and weaker flush draws in.
River - any nut flush draw is pretty bad bluff because ot blocks a lot of his folding range

If he calls with Kx OTT, I think he is most likely calling river to that card, specially with a 0,56 SPR OTR

Was going to say a mix of those. First is true to a point, but the Q pairs or makes a straight with your other bluffs, so you're struggling for better combos.

You can answer your own question by first thinking what YOU would raise a donk bet with on that flop. Then decide (cause you're the one who played against the V) how much more or less aggro V is, or how bluffy or value oriented his raises usually are.

FWIW, I wouldn't mind a turn donk bet IF the V had checked behind or cbet 1/2 pot or less on the flop. But if we did donk for 1/2 pot and V still raised, then I'm out, we're smoked. I think the only river I donk jam would be a non heart 4. It just screams missed draw and I'm trying to push you off your K. Does this make sense?

wrong conbo to raise flop with IMO

Heard more reaction that said that. Why dont you x/r these hands? If i raise lower draws I'm always afraid that my opponent will call with higher flushdraws and then stack my when we hit or win when I give up.

fair point but A high has sdv in that spot vs part of V's range (e.g. JT,QT,QJ, lower fds etc) and plays pretty well as just a call, id rather raise combo draws like JThh or QThh with less sdv and more equity.

Also this would be the wrong combo to barrel river ap, wanna pick bluffs unblocking fds ideally.

and if you get 3bet otf you are in tough spot
you can raise some TJ QJ with beckdoors Ah2 and maybe few combo draws and sets and K2 K9