Villain plays 21/18/2.8 on 195 hands.
With pp sometimes I 3bet and sometimes I call from blinds. I think the mistake is the small bet on turn. With too many draws, I had to push and protect my hand.

Pre: 3bet Pre
Flop: Raise is good
Turn: Bet Larger, your gonna have 67s, 89s, 66-77 here and some flush & straight draws, lets get some value
River: Shoving >= Bet Folding > Check Calling > Check Folding > Bet Calling

Shoving vs. Bet Folding is an interesting discussion and depends on your player pool. I play on Bovada and I'll get called by AQ all day at these stakes here with the missed draws. On tougher sites, its very likely that I might be off base.

I could fold an overpair, but not a set because there are many overpairs in his range and many busted draws olso. He may think i was bluffing with a busted draw and made a move with AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QT rarely 67 and QQ or 66 of cource.

Bet more turn, shove river.

Nop, eh?

MUTB maybe, but I think 45s is about the only hand I can see making any sense given the action. What is he floating that turn with?

Your action throughout makes a bluff seem unlikely unless villain is a lagtard.

I think AA, KK, AQ, KQ, QT, 67 and QQ, 66 are all in his calling range on this river, unless I have a read to say he can lay down overpairs/tp.

NB: My river call efficiency tells me I probably look this **** up way too much.

Pre-flop: We really should be 3-betting from the SB with 77. We want to force the BB out of the pot, because if we flat it gives him a really good spot to squeeze. We're OOP and we'll get a lot of folds by raising. It's a small mistake but it adds up.

Flop: Villain has a very wide range on the flop here. I very much like the C/R and the sizing here. Now, this spot interested me, so I've done some work on it before writing, range anyalsis on villain. Turns out he has a hell of a lot of draws here. I took a basic BTN raising range of 41% (standard for the stats you gave I'd say), I assumed he c-bets quite a lot of it on this board, so I took out most of the stuff that had decent showdown value (6x and some 7x). He won't always X/C these but he will sometimes.

When he calls your raise, I assume he 3-bets sets and AKcc, as well as some over pairs.So I think he calls with FDs, 54, 98, QT+. This gives him 153 combos left in his range. 106 of these are flush draws and the other 42 mainly consist of top pair.

Turn: With this in mind, I like a huge bet on the turn to give all those draws a bad price (if he calls, he's made a mistake which you will profit from in the long run), maybe $2.20. I think since his range is mainly made up of draws he continues against your bet with pretty much the same range as he calls the raise on the flop with.

River: The flush missed, so I like betting small to induce a river raise with his busted draw, about 50% of pot works, pretty much what you've done. This beats checking to induce here because he also has some Qx he can call a 50% bet with, which he usually checks back if you check. Obviously it's an easy call once he ships. I think he's nearly always bluffing in this spot, but occasionally he'll have slow-played a strong hand.

His line makes no sense, if he had a strong hand that he wanted to stack off with he would have raised earlier in the hand? The river was a brick, so I'm calling a missed flush draw on this guy.

This hand just kind of interested me so I thought I'd work it through in detail!

I don't like the 3 bet 77 oop. That said i don't like flatting either, just prefer folding pre tbh. Depends on button.

Flop and turn I agree, bet big turn and shove river.

Your river analysis is horrible. Betting small to induce?? You have a set and are giving them a far too cheap showdown for all two pair and aq type hands, your hand will look like a missed flush draw too. And I have no clue why you think v's missed flush draws are gonna go mental and bluff shove into a range which include: for value, sets and straights which aren't going to fold; and for bluffs, flushes which a missed flush draw has blockers for. Shoving into polarised ranges is just bad. Even 45 is a marginal river shove here.

fine to 3bet 77 pre btn v sb

3-betting 77 from the SB is standard in my view. I don't know what you think is a better play? Calling I don't like because we're going to get squeezed out frequently here, we're OOP (that's a reason to 3-bet, not against it) and our raiser has a wide range and will fold a lot to the 3-bet.

If you'd read my analysis you'd see that there are very few 2 pair or AQ type hands. His range is primarily flush draws in this spot. He's not going to bluff-shove any of the time over a big bet and he's not going to call a big bet with a single top pair most of the time after the line we've taken.

60% of the time here, he has absolutely nothing. A small bet gives him the most opportunity to bluff us, while giving us the best opportunity to get called by one-pair hands which make most of the rest of his range here.

I'm sorry but your plan of shoving the river misses out on so much value we can get from his bluffs, which make up the bulk of his range.

At the games I play in I expect my opponent to show up with 89 or 45 almost always here, unless I have some sort of read to suggest opponent would make a big bluff into such a strong range as what you're representing. As played I fold river.

I would have preferred a bigger turn bet and river shove.

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It isnt facing a minraise.
Still prefer 3bet pre though.

I edited that out of my post already, forgot we are facing a 2x.

Can opponent really expect to have fold equity when he shoves river? I fold river all day without a very rare dynamic/metagame (ie: villain is complete idiot or is capable of high-level thinking, like he can't expect I'm ever bluffing therefore he'll fold everything but the nuts so I bluff, which assumes that he is good enough to follow that thought process and has confidence you will actually make the read that he's never bluffing and fold). Excuse the run on sentence

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I think villain can often expect to have fold equity here. Just like he has a lot of draws in his range, we do too. We'd certainly raise that flop with strong draws a lot, and hey, some villains just hate folding!

'' Bet more turn, shove river. ''
+1

3b pre > flatting pre

love u haters

We can have some missed draws here, but our value range is so strong that it makes sense for him to call, not raise with just about everything. In the games I play people just aren't bluffing here and they're only raising straights. I do play exclusively live so it's possible the games play much differently online.

Ah yes, I play mostly live too. That would be why. The stack here is only 111BB, players stack off much more widely, whereas in live games they're mostly deep stacked.

Getting 4 to 1, a call can't be that horrible, whereas a fold can be against certain opponents, but I'm convinced a lot of my profitability comes from folding in spots like this where other players auto-call. Like everything in poker it's opponent-dependent. If villain is value-shoving worse or even moderately-likely to bluff it quickly turns into a snap-call.

How many villains would flat with a straight on a turn with two flush draws? Hands like AQcc and AJ/AK dd/cc (gutshot and flush combo draw) would not fold turn, some of the DDs would call your check raise putting you on a flush draw.

QQ you think would shove flop or turn (flatting a strong raise with a set when flush and straight draws out there is a little sketchy).

I would think villains value range is 89 and 45 cc/dd (maybe add a couple offsuit combos) and a couple sets (TT and 66 more likely than QQ)

Bluffs/Thin Value would be AQ, KK+, KQ and some rag two pairs (consider a wide button open)

Pure bluffs would be the AK/AJ combo draws

I think it is a call given your odds. If you are folding a set there then you can be exploited by people jamming anything on that brick river.

Do you have QQ,KK,AA,AQ etc in your flatting range?

What are you 3betting from SB?

So if you're analysis is correct and he has nothing 60% of the time, then aq comes near the top of this range no?? Are you even thinking about how much our hand looks like a bluff on this board??

If we split up v's hands into missed draws vs showdown value that we beat, say aq+, if you're betting small with all value and bluffs then you're giving him too good a price to call you down on the river with your bluffs and also you're not getting enough value when he does calls and you have it. Obviously its a balance here but we are polarised on the river so we need to bet big. This is assuming you are betting the same amount with your missed flush draws and your sets.

So when villain has a missed draw you're saying want to bet small to induce him to bluff. Remember here your range consists of sets, straights and missed flush draws. Why do you think villain is going to bluff raise all in with all of his hands?? Especially considering betting half pot here just looks so much like value. Why not just check river and make him bluff shove everything?? (Because so many of his hands just want to get to showdown thats why not) Especially at these lower stakes river shoves are very value heavy.
I also don't know how much of a station this guy is to call flop and river with 60% nothing here lol.

Alrite calm down

Our opponent is unlikely to be thinking about our range at 10NL. That's overthinking it. We also don't really need to worry about range balancing at this level since the player pool is so big. I don't think villain is going to bluff-raise all of his hands. Seeing as most of the time he has nothing or a marginal hand, a small bet gets max value from his Qx whilst allowing him the opportunity to shove missed draws. He won't do this every time but he's not going to do it even more if we bet bigger is he? We're still charging the Qx, and he's unlikely to call a much bigger bet anyway.

When I say nothing I obviously mean he's missed a draw.. So he wouldn't have to be a station to get to the river with air at all.