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Old 02-03-2012, 08:10 PM   #1
stranger
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Posts: 4
Is this river C/R too thin?

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $29.72
BTN: $28.18
Hero (SB): $25.00
BB: $25.00
UTG: $4.69
MP: $26.18

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is SB with T J
1 fold, MP raises to $0.87, 1 fold, BTN calls $0.87, Hero calls $0.77, 1 fold

I would 3 bet a lot here but button was a 76/11 fish over 56 hands
Only had 12 hands on player in MP

Flop: ($2.86) Q 5 K (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($2.86) Q (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $1.36, BTN calls $1.36, Hero calls $1.36

I think this is a standard call especially with button still in the hand

River: ($6.94) 9 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $4.97, BTN folds, [color=red]Hero raises to $14

My reasoning here was specific to MP's line. I feel like if he had 55, QQ, KK or KQ on the flop he would C-Bet almost all the time in a 3-way pot.

I do not think the turn bet is a bluff, it looks a lot like a delayed c-bet with a marginal K or more likely he has a hand like AQ or QJ or Q10 which turned trips. Again, the river bet is not huge but screams value, however, I think it is really hard for him to be filled up here I think his range is heavily weighted towards a non filled Q with some strong-ish Kings or maybe really thin value with Jacks or Tens and I do not think Q9 really falls into his middle position opening range.

I raised expecting to get called by trips or something worse. I do not like my bet sizing and looking back I should've made it like 9.50 and I would've folded to a jam.

Thoughts?
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Old 02-03-2012, 08:34 PM   #2
Pooh-Bah
 
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Location: Finland
Posts: 5,495
Re: Is this river C/R too thin?

I don't understand why you played flop and turn so passively. I would bet turn if I didn't donk the flop and I would definitely raise the 1/2 pot bet on the turn if I didn't lead. It looks like the Pfr has a marginal hand an the fish can obviously have anything
and will fold to a river bet often even if he overcalls the turn raise.

River betsizing by the Pfr is very strange after the 1/2 pot turn bet and 2 calls.
But he is an unknown so his most likely hand is Qx that he didn't feel he could cbet for value and didn't want to scare you two way on the turn. So I would raise the river as you did.

Of course he could have KQ KK or 99 that he plays like this also, but Qx will be the majority so raising is definitely ok. Don't know if it is r/f or r/c with these stacksizes though. Only hands he could possibly shove with are JT and boats, so instinctively I would say it's a r/f but you would have to stove it and check the odds you are getting to be sure. And part of the JT cobos have to b discarded because he would only call some of the time.
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Old 02-03-2012, 11:08 PM   #3
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Re: Is this river C/R too thin?

I would just check fold the turn here as we're OOP and the board is paired.
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