Some relevant and not so relevant stats. V opens otb 9/22 times. FT3b: 0/1 OTB & 4/6 overall. FTcb:2/8, called cbet 5/8 times. Cbet otf is questionable since I'm basically trying to fold out some K highs and other random floats or for some BDFD outs to barrel.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 20.33, PFR: 14.67, 3Bet Preflop: 4.76, Hands: 316)
BTN: 113.8 BB (VPIP: 20.68, PFR: 13.92, 3Bet Preflop: 2.41, Hands: 244)
Hero (SB): 120 BB
BB: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 20.50, PFR: 15.85, 3Bet Preflop: 5.43, Hands: 1,152)
UTG: 172.6 BB (VPIP: 26.88, PFR: 17.71, 3Bet Preflop: 5.48, Hands: 384)
MP: 104.6 BB (VPIP: 18.43, PFR: 10.59, 3Bet Preflop: 6.12, Hands: 256)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.2 BB, Hero raises to 8.8 BB, fold, BTN calls 6.6 BB

Flop: (18.6 BB, 2 players) 5 3 7
Hero bets 9.6 BB, BTN calls 9.6 BB

Turn: (37.8 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

River: (73.8 BB, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 77.4 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 77.4 BB

Thoughts?

His value range is obviously toasting you, so this is really a question of how many bluffs he can show up with. I'm trying to figure out a reasonable range for villain OTR... maybe something like

QQ, 77-33, AQ, KQ, AK, AJ, maybe AT

Do we think he's turning JJ-88 into a bluff?

^Dont think so, turning those Hands into a bluff
Also, I dont expect this V to be calling 3Bs w PP (22-77)

AQ. KK. AA. QQ. KJs. JTs.
8... 6 ... 6 ... 1 ... 3 ... 1 <-- Combos

Id x/f otr

Fold, you have no reason to think that villain might be overbluffing.

The rest is fine.

Aggression SBvBTN is good , but there is a lot of equity flatting QTs here, especially against an apparently tighter than average opponent. Don't know what the FCP accomplishes. BTN's range is probably stronger than our hand, but if I did I would certainly barrel the turn with I improve. It looks like we're getting great odds to call off with TP, but I think this is a bit deceiving. As played you should let it go as you're gonna find that in most cases villain has exactly what he's repping. Stuff like AQ,KQ,55,33,77 maybe even 68s? Don't give nits action by hero calling marginal TPs. Come on you know this dude.

I really don't like the flop cbet. He's not folding with most of his range that is going to call a bet on the flop and you bloat the pot.

^ what if the flop were 9 8 3 or 9 8 3, where we hold some more equity but having not that much FE neither?

Mchares, I like betting either of those flops more than 753.

My whole thought process is tl;dr, so I will just say this, it's really tough for either of us to have that big a hand to get all the money in at any point, especially the way I played from the turn. Is my conclusion correct or incorrect?

Bet the turn for value imo.

...had to read this a couple times. The rest of what you wrote I am well aware, but, do you mean he isn't folding otf with most of his range, period?

Surrender the flop

Do we have any reason to think that he is not doing that?

5nl

I agree that turn might be good spot to bet (it dosnt mean it has to be very big bet)
1.QT beats most of Vs range
2.imo turn is better spot to get value form 88-JJ because if river is A K 4 or 6 we cant get any value form those + we are forced to check on those

Great argument

"Population reads" was too many characters.

What hands are you calling that get here this way other than 76s and 86s?

That would depend on how preflop and flop ranges are constructed.

It would be pretty questionable for us to have 86s here though.

Those are better flops. We shouldn't be c-betting this flop 100% of the time, and so something like QT with no backdoor straight draw seems like a good one to drop from our betting range.

Seems like V is floating a lot, so he probably bluffs turn and river a bit, so for me it's a bit closer, but still a fold. For the same floating reason i'd give up flop.

ye not cbetting flop altough i suspect its somewhat close

I believe turn 1/2 psb makes more sense than x-ing.

but betting turn makes him fold good portion of his floats

I think even if the 7 is a 9 and you have that little bit more of a barreling opportunity then c-bet is better. Doubt it's that bad in general since your hand is weak enough to benefit from folding out his Kx and Ax without backdoors.

C-bet turn. You want to barrel this card a bit (although I think Qx doesn't improve us all that often) but it doesn't help villain out ever and we have the best hand a lot. Doubt he's folding a pair on that turn.

River's actually a weird spot since he'll have very little 6x that should bet the turn (56s/67s should check). But what do these nitfish kind of players ever have here other than A6s/A2s? If he jams thinner than that (sets or AQ) then he's killing us since I don't see too many bluff combos other than 89s. I guess he can have a lot of pure floats on the flop and swing this to a good bluff catch but pop reads aren't looking good.

^^

River was very interesting.

BTN shows A8.