***Official uNL Stats Checkup Thread***

[PKS Ace]

Looks like I took too long writing my response ^^^

I'd also like someone to take a quick look at my stats. I've been working on opening my game up a lot lately because I noticed that there are a lot of spots where people just play their hand faceup and you can just abuse them as long as you're paying attention. I've also only been playing 2-6 tables during this time so I can notice any trouble spots or leaks in my game and pay attention to what everyone else is doing better.

I also know that this is a small sample size, but I only wanted to include the hands where I was trying out this laggier style, and I think it's a big enough sample to where VPIP/PFR/AF(ish) and most of the other stats have started to converge enough to be mostly accurate. I also blanked out all of the winrate stats (especially positional wr) just because it is such a small sample size. I was running at about 5 ptbb/100 FWIW, but that's a fairly useless number at 6k hands.

[xghjase]

Pokey I tried to talk myself out of asking you because it's a big ask but if you find time to review mine, it doesn't have to be as detailed as your previous responses but it would be much appreciated as I'm about to move up to 50NL and I feel there are some things that need tweaking

[RedJoker]

Alright, I'll try to hit everyone who's been missed, besides I can't let Pokey have all the fun

Originally Posted by guitarizt

I can save you some time from clicking the image. Sometimes I hate when 2+2 resizes pics. I'm 17/14 over 9k hands of 100nl. I cbet 63%, yet in hu pots villain only folds 47% of the time. It's so disgusting.

I mostly play 50nl, but I'm taking shots at 100nl lately. I've been getting absolutely crushed. Mostly bleeding monies away at a rapid rate. Not even fun allin hands or anything. =[

In general, at all levels of poker, if feels like people call my cbets a lot. HM has a beta out that finally proves my hunch right. I don't know if this is normal or what, but I basically get killed in pots that don't go to sd and I do ok with pots that see a sd. I realized this some time ago, and to fix this I really throttled back on my cbets which seemed to help.

I recently decided I wanna get better and open up my game, and I think I really need to be cbetting at least 65% of the time and playing more like 22/20, 20/18 than 16/13, 17/14 and only cbetting ~62%.

<edit> I think this is actually pretty normal. I'm probably just playing poorly postflop. I mean my stats at 50nl- are very similar, but I don't hate my winrate there like I do at 100nl ofc.

17/14 is very tight. It's a fine style of play for multitabling and getting in tonnes of hands and it's definitely profitable at micro stakes. However....you'll improve a lot faster by loosening up and taking on some more marginal situations. Do it gradually obviously but, when your hardest decision is working out how much to cbet with AA on an A83 flop, you're going to find it hard to improve. That said I'm ridiculously biased because I love playing LAGgy.

As for cbetting; if I was playing 17/14 my cbet % would be bordering on 100%. You're going to have the best hand so so often. A couple of things. Dry boards like K82r, A93r, etc. you can cbet smaller, like 1/2 to 2/3 pot. Follow up with close to pot sized bets on the turn a lot, they're great spots for double barreling. More normal boards like QJ7r, T42tt, etc. you should be cbetting somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 pot. On the wet boards like J94tt, T98r, etc. you should be cbetting between 3/4 and full pot but rarely doing it as a bluff.

Also I disagree with what Pokey said earlier about stealing:

Holy smokes are you aggro on the button. 34/31? Really?? Attempting to steal the blinds is great and all, but 40% of the time seems a bit on the high side. I'd probably scale back a bit. Not MUCH, mind you, but a BIT. You have had some really good showings from the button so far, but I can't help but think some of that is variance. Maybe at $25NL you can get away with this kind of play, however....

Stealing blinds at micro stakes is like printing money, nobody ever plays back at you. I remember my att.toStealBlinds was at something like 52% back when I was playing 20nl. I've toned it down to a modest 43% now though at 200nl .

Here's some threads about loosening up in late position:

http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...0&fpart=1&vc=1
http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...Number=5348855
http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...Number=6073737
http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/show...Number=3661078
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/39/small-stakes-pl-nl/pooh-bah-post-playing-junk-late-position-658/

Also your W$WSF is on the nitty side. Here's a thread I wrote about the subject. With your low WtSD and low W$WSF and high AFs it means you're giving up way too easily in certain spots. A lot of times it can be o.k. to peel a turn card when your opponent is very straight forward and against the maniacs it can be fine to call down with marginal top pairs or strong underpairs, especially if you're shown weakness at some point in the hand.

Originally Posted by xghjase

How does this look? (Limited access to HH atm, just the last few weeks):




edit: just noticed, why the fk am i making so much $$ utg? :S

It seems like you have no concept of position, you're playing the same hands from all positions. Go read those threads I linked above.

Your VPIP UTG is pretty high, it's higher than mine and I play 29/22 ffs. If you're comfortable playing SCs, suited gappers and Axs from UTG then it's fine but until you get to that point it should probably be avoided. Unless you're opening things like JTo and K9s or other really marginal hands, which should definitely be avoided.

Also you're losing a tonne of money from the SB, this is natural since you have to pay blinds obv , but you should definitely be taking loads and loads of stabs at limped pots. I'll bet any pair, draw or even backdoor draws in limped pots. I'll also bet with air if the boards dry, like most paired board or Q73r, J83r, etc., etc. and I'll often fire second barrels on those dry boards. Just keep firing out and picking up the 3 or 4 big blinds that are there to be won, it's like printing money.

Originally Posted by doublehawk

ok, this is really getting to me now. i'm close to moving down from 50nl, which is frustrating since i feel i'm generally playing well. some of this comes from running like **** - i can't get AA in pf to save my life (twice against shortstacks in the last 50 times i've had them), and on the rare occasion a draw completes for me, some retard's been slowplaying the absolute nuts from the beginning.

edit: sorry, i know i'm whinging, but there is some truth to this.

anyway, i'm getting desperate, and i'd love it if anyone would be able to give me come thoughts on where i can improve. i need all the help i can get at the moment.

cheers

the last 2 months or so, all at 50nl:

Yeah you're losing a tonne of money from the blinds as well. In limped pots bet bet bet bet BET. Read my last paragraph. Do you know the way calling stations are always limping into pots? They pick up so many of those because the nits (and even good regs) in the blinds don't care about the 3BBs that are out there. They just min bet and pick it up, it's crazy.

Your CO VPIP is pretty low, I agree with Pokey, there's not a huge amount of difference between the CO and BTN. Read the threads I linked earlier about loosening up in LP.

Your W$WSF looks good though so you're playing pretty aggressively. A 90% cbet% is definitely on the high end, you could tone it down a little bit. Check back on wet boards that hit your opponents range, check back in WA/WB situations where you're unlikely to get called by worse and unlikely to fold better. Like if you opened A3s otb and the BB, a semi-loose reg, calls you and checks a A95r flop. This is a good spot to check behind, control the pot, induce bluffs, etc. Or against maniacs you can check strong hands to them and let them spew off multiple barrels.

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by kimos123

Here are my stats. please comment about what i am doing right/ wrong.
i want to play cash games instead of grinding SnG's since my bankroll is large enough for 25NL.

22/11 is really, really passive. STOP LIMPING. Raise that **** up ffs. NO LIMPING. Alright you can limp in the SB if there's been a few limpers before you, otherwise raise or fold. And you can limp in late position if there's a limper before you with less then 30 - 40BBs, otherwise raise it up and isolate them.

24% att to steal is too low, 30% AT LEAST, >35% is better though. Go read the threads about loosening up in late position.

You're playing very loosely from the SB, this is o.k. if you're taking lots of stabs at limped pots. Based on your low W$WSF I doubt this though.

I think your low W$WSF could just be a function of being so passive preflop. Without initiative it's much harder to pick up pots. By raising we can cbet and put a lot of pressure on our opponents. Although you're still probably playing a little too weak-tight anyway.

Originally Posted by Zanton

Here are my stats for the last 10k hands. I took a shot at NL25 where I was quite even (little less). I returned to NL10 as I think I wasn't comfortable with my bankroll so I could grind a few buyins. I've just went back to NL25 for a few hundred hands. I don't have that much time to play, so I don't have big samples like others.

From my stats, I think I have a problem playing on the button. Do you have any advice for this spot particulary giving my style, and in general ?

Thanks a lot.

These stats look pretty good. 22/16 is a little passive but nothing to be too concerned about.

29% att to steal is bordering on acceptable, could be brought up a little by opening wider from the CO.

I wouldn't worry about the BTN, 1800 hands is meaningless.

You've got a very healthy W$WSF, keep that up.

It looks like you may be defending your BB a little light though. Playing OOP, without initiative and with a marginal hand is the pits, it's really hard to show a profit doing this against anyone competent. Ironically, the only time you shouldn't be too concerned with winning the blinds is when you're the one posting them.

Originally Posted by HonestIago15

Hey all,

I've been playing poker online for a long time but have been attending college at the same time and have not as of yet had the discipline to make it both as a student and a poker player. I used to play SNG's and did really well at them. I took a break for a while and switched to 6 max NL, because I know that's where the best money is once you get really good. I moved up to 50NL a little over a week ago and did really well for a while, and then hit a 5 BI downswing in one day and am down to a pretty pitiful BB/100. I'm really dedicated to learning to play the game now and so I want to turn what could be a big discouragement into motivation to study my game. Any comments on my stats would be much appreciated.

My sense is that I pick up lots of little pots all the time with my postflop aggression but (and this is just a gut impression) I feel like I lose too many big pots. If anyone has any insight I'm all ears!


http://i304.photobucket.com/albums/n...kerstats-1.png


Thanks in advance.

Again 22/16 is slightly passive but probably o.k.

30% att to steal is acceptable but you could open a little wider from the CO.

39% W$WSF is pretty low and combined with your low WtSD and high AFs indicates that you don't call enough when it's likely you're good. Or even worse, raise in WA/WB situations where calling is infinitely better. Like let's say a competent TAG opens from the CO, you know his range is reasonably wide here and decide to cold call AJs otb. The flop comes down A73tt and he cbets. Calling here is definitely the way to go, raising would be terrible and is more likely to get him to fold AQ then get him to call with worse. So you'd be turning your hand into a bluff and having something like 44 would be much better to raise with, or 65 or something. That's pretty basic poker 101 but it's still important to understand.

Your winrate from the SB looks good but 3K hands is a little meaningless.

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by absoludicrous

Just a quick stat check up. Talked to some people, started posting more hands, and re-worked my game in March after 3 months of bad play, bad cards. Hopefully I'm back on the right track.

All the hands I've played since March. Focusing more on shorter, better sessions, and not playing long ones when I'm down or tilting. I've gone back and forth between 2, 4, 6, and 9 tables, feeling most comfortable with 4.

I probably still play a little too loose in EP. Most of that has to do with opening almost all SC's, S1Gappers, etc. I'm working on narrowing my EP range.

All the limits I've played w/ stats:



Position stats:

I'd filter out the HU hands because they're going to distort the SB and BB in the positions stats.

I'd tighten up a bit from EP and loosen up a bit more from LP.

Although they're probably distorted it looks like you're losing a good bit from the blinds. Take lots of stabs at those limped pots.

If you want to play a LAG style I'd try to get my W$WSF a little higher. It's not bad or anything, could just be higher as I'm assuming you're pretty competent if you can play this style profitably. More second barrels, lots of stabs at pots, etc.

Originally Posted by -Tim-

Hi, here are my hands on nl50.
My winrate could have been higher but i had a period where I was playing very very bad. Still happy about the result, this is the first time I tried to actually use the things i read about, like folding tp to a turn raize and stuff like that.

Next step is to stop being a Nit. I try to open up my game, but I dont really know how. Everytime I try I find myself in big pots with marginal hands and dont really know what to do. Also i think i need to lose less without showdown. This will probably go side by side.

Please let me know what you think about my stats.

18/13 is pretty tight. Read the threads about loosening up in LP two posts back. It's fine for multitabling but makes it harder to improve your game and playing 12 tables grinding out a marginal winrate at micro stakes is so pointless, get to small stakes first and you can do it then if you feel like it. I'm not saying you do this btw, just a general point.

W$WSF is pretty low, that's means you're playing too weak-tight postflop. Just means you have to get better. Read all these......twice.

Micro Stakes Sticky
2+2 SSNL Master Sticky
Small/Micro Stakes Video Collection
Anthology

Originally Posted by PKS Ace

Looks like I took too long writing my response ^^^

I'd also like someone to take a quick look at my stats. I've been working on opening my game up a lot lately because I noticed that there are a lot of spots where people just play their hand faceup and you can just abuse them as long as you're paying attention. I've also only been playing 2-6 tables during this time so I can notice any trouble spots or leaks in my game and pay attention to what everyone else is doing better.

I also know that this is a small sample size, but I only wanted to include the hands where I was trying out this laggier style, and I think it's a big enough sample to where VPIP/PFR/AF(ish) and most of the other stats have started to converge enough to be mostly accurate. I also blanked out all of the winrate stats (especially positional wr) just because it is such a small sample size. I was running at about 5 ptbb/100 FWIW, but that's a fairly useless number at 6k hands.

Isn't playing LAGgy so much fun?

Your stats look good.

Your WtSD is pretty high though. You've got a good W$WSF and, combined with a mid range AF, this indicates that you may be calling down too light. Be careful you're making calls for the right reasons and don't put it down as a cooler just because you're playing LAGgy and think people are playing back at you lighter.

It may also mean that you're not value betting thin enough either, your 60% cbet% is on the low side, but it's not terrible, and it could be one of the reasons for your WtSD being a bit high.

[pokahpaul]

thanks pokey! pretty much the best poster ever!

[PKS Ace]

Originally Posted by RedJoker

Be careful you're making calls for the right reasons and don't put it down as a cooler just because you're playing LAGgy and think people are playing back at you lighter.

Something I've been working on lately. I definitely need to take more time to think about a lot of hands before I stick my chips in the center.

Thanks for taking the time to do this!

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by Pokey

On to the analysis. Here's what I see:

1. You don't seem to be playing a very successful game from the big blind. Specifically, you seem to be overly tight. Now, while I agree that Tight is Right from the blinds in general, 9.4/4.7 really crosses the boundary from "responsibly tight" to "paranoid." To my mind, you should be 3-betting more frequently from the blinds than from almost any other position. Why? Because so often you will be facing a steal attempt by a player who has crap. At $50NL and $100NL, lighter resteals from the blinds are absolute rock-solid gold. Here's how you do it: the hand is folded around to CO or BTN who makes a standard raise. You check, and he steals more than 30% of the time. That tells you he has absolute doggy crap quite often. You look down at "22+, AK, AQ" (NOTE: that's 8.3% of your range, or almost double the amount you've been 3-betting from the blinds so far) and you say "time to go to war." At this point, you three-bet solidly: bump it up to about four times his raise. This will win you the pot immediately a remarkably large fraction of the time. When you are called, that's totally cool, too: now, you c-bet ANY flop, but you c-bet WEAKLY. My usual choice is to c-bet only slightly larger than my original preflop raise. I'm talking 50-60% of the pot size, here. Remember: the pot is already very big and many of your opponents are going to be playing fit-or-fold on the flop. Your c-bet wins the pot about 2/3rds of the time even though you're only putting in a small bet. If you are called, only continue with the hand if you really have something, but just making this preflop/flop play will be enormously +EV for you.

2. You are cold-calling WAAAAAY too much. If I'm reading your stats correctly, when you are faced with a raise you cold call an average of 8.7% of the time preflop. Zounds! I just checked my database ($200NL, but close enough) and of the players that I have at least 3,500 hands on there are exactly three winning players with CC% over 8.00. Three. Out of 741. You do not stand in good company. I'd try to get that number cut to 1/3rd of its current level as a start. Anything over 4% should be worrying you, and anything over 6% should be a leak. (Just to give you a reference, my VPIP and PFR look similar to yours but my CC% is 1.59%, so it really can go QUITE a bit lower.) How do you get it down that low? Easy: don't cold-call. If someone raises in front of you, make a decision: do I like my hand enough to three-bet this? If the answer is "yes," then three-bet. If the answer is "no" then you should fold unless you have a VERY good reason not to. Now, overcalling is a different matter; there are times when a speculative hand (usually a pocket pair, but sometimes a suited connector) does quite well overcalling a preflop raise, but for the most part when there's a raise in front you should be looking to either 3-bet or dump it (almost always dumping it, of course). The beauty of this plan is that when you actually find yourself mixed up in a hand postflop you almost always have the betting lead, and that's a recipe for success. Cold-calling is typically far less successful than reraising, barring an opponent-specific read.

I know this isn't a strat thread but I have to disagree with a lot of this.

1. You should be 3betting more frequently from the CO and ESPECIALLY the BTN then you are from the blinds. Position is HUGE and when you 3bet a competent player while OOP he's got a tonne of options. He can
- 4bet.
- call and float.
- call and bluff raise.
- call and make the best hand.

When we're IP he's pretty much limited to
- 4bet.

I'm not saying you shouldn't 3bet from the blinds, of course not, you should just be more inclined to do it when IP. And if somebody is opening their SB into you light you can go nuts.

The next point is about your range for 3betting, this is a style thing to a certain extent but I prefer 3betting SCs and suited gappers rather then PPs. They play extremely differently but the main point is that SCs play far better then PPs when you're the one who has initiative.

From http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.p...&fpart=all&vc=1

With SCs:

- you have a 5.6% (1 in 18, 17:1 chance) of flopping a good made hand
- you have a ~7% (1 in 14, 13:1) chance of flopping a strong (12+ outs) combo draw
- you have a ~13% chance (1 in 7.5, 6.5:1) chance of flopping a standard OESD or FD

And that's not taking into account times we turn the nuts or a backdoor draw.

With PPs:

- you have 11.8% (1 in 8.5, 7.5:1 chance) of flopping a good made hand
- that's it. (Okay not really, you can flop things like 532 when you have 44 etc.)

Then there's the opportunity cost of not calling with our mid PPs. This sometimes exists when we're in position with SCs as well. I'll get to this in a second because it's really important.

Then there's the fact that to bluff with PPs we pretty much have air but to bluff with SCs we're looking at 30% - 40% equity. This balances nicely with the value portion of our range (overpairs/TPTK) that we'll be also be playing fast.

O.k. back to opportunity cost and it's the second big thing I want to disagree with. Unless you're against a really bad player (i.e. a fish), or you're an extremely good player (if you're reading this you're almost definitely not there yet), your range for 3betting should be polarized. What I mean by this is that your hand should be defined as being a value hand which you're happy to 5bet shove if he 4bets (like QQ+, AK) or a bluff hand (54s - JQs, 64s - KJs, 74s - KTs, A2s - A9s, 22 - 77, etc.) which you know you're going to fold if 4bet but which still plays pretty well those times that you do get called.

The reason for this is that there's only a finite number of hands you can get all-in preflop with. This depends on your opponent, game flow, image, history, position, etc., etc. Sometimes this is going to be KK+ and other times it'll be 99+, AQ+. The point is that it's limited.

So if there's only a limited number of hands we can get in for value then there must also be a limit to the number of hands we can bluff with. We can't 3bet 100% of our range (well sometimes we can but anyway), or else our opponent could just 4bet his entire opening range and show a profit, so we have to decide a good % of our air hands to bluff with. This will depend on the situation, our opponents, history, etc., etc. and on how wide our range for value is. So again there's a finite number of hands we can 3bet bluff with.

What this all means is that, provided the two hands have roughly the same EV when 3bet, we should only 3bet hands that we can't profitably coldcall. Since we won't get called that often and since calling ranges tend to be pretty strong, hands like 88 are pretty much the same as 44 when 3bet. However the EV of cold calling with 88 is much higher then with 44. And the EV of calling with 44 is much higher then calling with something like 65s, and 65s plays better as the 3bettor anyway. So you should 3bet bluff with hands that you can't coldcall profitably but can almost do so. And coldcall the hands you can.

So in your range against a typical micro - small stakes opponent I usually won't be happy getting in with any less then QQ+, AK as a default. That means I'll almost never 3bet with 88 - JJ and AQ from the range you posted since I can coldcall them profitably. 22 - 77 are debatable.

Also just because villain has a wide opening range it does not make it a valid reason to 3bet, it's like saying "I'm ahead of his range" and it's nonsense. We should be more concerned with how wide he defends his opens, rather then how wide he opens. So against a fish who'll call way too often we shouldn't use a polarized range, we can 3bet 88 - JJ and AJ/AQ/KQ, which I'd usually coldcall with, for value because he'll call with way too much stuff.

Not that it's too relevant here but at higher stakes players will call 3bets wider with things like KJ/KT/A9/etc. so 3betting KQ/AQ/AJ becomes almost mandatory.

2. Make that 4 and it's for the reasons I stated above. I can only 3bet bluff a finite number of hands and I'll do this with hands which I'm NOT able to profitably coldcall with and coldcall the ones which I am. Even though 3betting may be higher EV then coldcalling I lose out on the EV of 3betting a weaker hand that I'll now have to fold.

[Jubes]

Hi,

I've been playing 20nl through 100nl on Betfair since may. I am showing profit but i fail at something terribly. I can't seem to get steady showdown winnings. Maybe its something that can be analised from my stats, im not sure. But here you go:





Any out of the ordinary ? Maybe its not visible rightaway , but here are some graphicals to emphasize what i mean. I also posted them in uBBV but i think they belong here better.



0-19k = 20nl
20k+ = 50/100nl

oyeah and there is a - 1.25bi of 200nl in there somewhere ( tilt )

[MeAllinYouLOL]

Hey all, these are my stats for this month , would love to hear suggestions / comments




Also, i posted the following thread before noticing this thread:

I looked on my NL50 PokerEV graph for this month (its not pretty, tilt and stupidity are killing me) and noticed that over my sample of about 25k , i have been losing about 680$ / big bets , which is 2.7 ptbb / 100 . Now if i got it right, this includes all the blinds / hands where i didnt VPIP'd.
Pokertracker is telling me i was required to post a total of 3600 $ / ptbb

I play about 20/16 on NL50 6max, when i add a "Action preflop is raise / call" filter on pokerEV it tells me i have been winning 41 BB / 100 in total winnings, that includes 19.1 BB / 100 for showdown winnings and 21.7BB / 100 in non-showdown, which is 1266$ over the 5644 filtered hands.

Is it possible to draw any conclusions from these stats .. Is it "acceptable" to lose a few BB per 100 on folding blinds, and if so , how do my stats compare?

Also, how reliable can PokerEV indicate running bad? I have been down 15 buyins over 50k+ hands of NL50 6-max and my SB line has never had a very signifacnt downswing .. however it seems that during the few bumps i had , the divergence got bigger when i lost the pots putting my money in bad while i lost on a few suckouts on my upswings , which made the divergence grow more again. Now i realize it can't treat the aspects of luck like getting action with aces or running with KK into AA , but.. i understand this is a fairly large sample , also a period where i changed my game more than once - is it likely to happen if its just being plain unlucky in the "short" run (3 months and lifetilt) , or is it possible that this apparent difference got compensated by my non-showdown winnings (basically, i draw out, i bet , they fold, and PokerEV wont count it as showdown hand and wont calculate EV ) ?

Any good way for me to analyze this a bit more with PT / PokerEV


Thanks for reading

[Pokey]

I can't leave on vacation without responding to this one.

Originally Posted by RedJoker

1. You should be 3betting more frequently from the CO and ESPECIALLY the BTN then you are from the blinds.

I thought about this for awhile, and y'know what? I actually disagree with this point. I think you SHOULD be 3-betting more from the blinds than from the CO or BTN. Why?? Well, because your folding equity is going to be significantly higher when you three-bet from the blinds, either preflop or on the flop.

Think of it this way: a typical 20/15 TAG raises UTG. If you three-bet from the button he's going to fold a significant fraction of his hands, but probably less than half of them. Remember, the guy is 20/15 on average from all seats combined; from UTG he's probably more like 13/12 or 14/13. He's probably not folding more than half of the 12% of hands that he raised with. Moreover, he's going to four-bet you hard with at least a quarter of his entire raising range, and if you were three-betting light you're going to have to fold those. That means that a light three-bet from CO or BTN against a typical TAG is going to be a dangerous move.

However, that same TAG might have a steal attempt of 30%. (Remember, I specified to only loosen up with three-betting against a frequent blind thief.) NOW how does he respond to a three-bet from the blinds? Sure, he's got position, but he was raising a third of his hands! Odds are that you've caught him with a hand he does NOT want to continue playing. Most TAGs will probably fold 2/3rds or 3/4ths of their hands to a resteal. You've got oodles more folding equity than you did against the EP raiser. Also, the odds of a four-bet go down significantly, since he'll only be fourbetting maybe 1/6th of the hands that he three-bet with. (Mind you, I'm just talking about a typical loose blind thief. If you're dealing with someone who is just a hyper-aggro raise monkey, resteals should again be tight.)

Position is HUGE and when you 3bet a competent player while OOP he's got a tonne of options.

That's only true if the competent player has a tight 3-bet range. If they are stealing a third of the time this reasoning simply doesn't apply. I agree that if we start fighting back 100% of the time that he steals this becomes problematic, but if we're only restealing 1 time in 12 he's probably not going to go all nuts on us: he'll just make a straightforward fold. Ideally, he'll even start stealing our blinds less often -- another +EV coup for us.

The next point is about your range for 3betting, this is a style thing to a certain extent but I prefer 3betting SCs and suited gappers rather then PPs. They play extremely differently but the main point is that SCs play far better then PPs when you're the one who has initiative.

No, SCs play far better than PPs when you have initiative AND POSITION. The reason why I still like my range better (especially for people new to light resteals) is that you KNOW what to do after your c-bet meets resistance. After you make your c-bet you'll either have a set or you won't. Binary. Either/or. If you've got a set, you're going to town. If you don't, you're folding most of the time. With a suited connector, things get noticeably uglier. In the article you quote, goofyballer refers to "hitting the board" VERY loosely. For example, in goofy's setup 6 5 would be considered to have hit the board on a flop of 8 7 6. Not to disparage goofy's work, but would you REALLY call that a 13-outer? I certainly wouldn't. If you were to do the study more carefully you'd find that you flop a solidly made hand with your suited connector LESS often than with a pocket pair. Also, when a suited connector gets a miracle and flops a flush there's still a very decent chance that villain has an overcard of the same suit; suddenly you're getting called down by an opponent with seven outs to a bigger hand than you! On the other hand, if villain calls down with an overpair or TPTK when you've got a set, he's only got 0-2 outs to beat you.

The black-or-white nature of a pocket pair's flop makes it ideal for playing OOP postflop. The shades-of-grey I've-got-outs-but-not-to-the-nuts nature of suited connectors make them markedly harder to play well, especially OOP. Three-betting suited connectors is fine if you know your opponent well and you know how they will react to your bet. It's especially useful if your opponent is going to virtually shut down postflop, checking behind when you want free cards and calling down when you want company. Unfortunately, these opponents are extremely rare, and against a typical enemy I'd like the backdoor insurance policy of a possible flopped set more than the lukewarm flops that suited connectors usual yield even when they "hit."

Then there's the fact that to bluff with PPs we pretty much have air but to bluff with SCs we're looking at 30% - 40% equity. This balances nicely with the value portion of our range (overpairs/TPTK) that we'll be also be playing fast.

Sometimes it's easier to bluff with air. In a three-bet pot people tend to play a very straightforward game -- "I fit or I fold." It's a rare villain who calls a three-bet preflop and then floats a 15 BB c-bet with garbage. Most of the time they're folding their naked overcards and even their underpairs. However, when you get called (or raised!) I'd really like to have a strong idea of where I stand. This wishy-washy "I've got a crappy pair and an idiot-end one-card straight draw" stuff doesn't fill me with confidence in a three-bet pot where my c-bet got raised. I'm probably going to be forced to go all-in, and I'm going to get stacked a depressing amount of the time. However, with pocket pairs I can escape with 2/3rds of my stack intact if I miss and STILL stack my villain when I hit and he raised my c-bet.

Most of the value from a resteal comes from the STEAL part, not the hand value part. Still, when it comes to insurance policies, I'd rather have the pair with its powerhouse potential than the suited connectors with their mushy half-assed hand potential. Suited connectors seem better for a straight raise than a three-bet, because suited connectors really thrive on implied odds.

O.k. back to opportunity cost and it's the second big thing I want to disagree with. Unless you're against a really bad player (i.e. a fish), or you're an extremely good player (if you're reading this you're almost definitely not there yet), your range for 3betting should be polarized. What I mean by this is that your hand should be defined as being a value hand which you're happy to 5bet shove if he 4bets (like QQ+, AK) or a bluff hand (54s - JQs, 64s - KJs, 74s - KTs, A2s - A9s, 22 - 77, etc.) which you know you're going to fold if 4bet but which still plays pretty well those times that you do get called.

I like this idea only if I think a four-bet is a very likely possibility, but even at the $200NL tables, four-bets aren't all that common. The most likely result by far is that villain simply folds to the resteal. Next most likely is that villain smooth-calls to "see what happens." Least likely by far is that villain four-bets. If I'm faced with a four-bet at $50NL, I'll usually treat it as a super-premium and respond accordingly, folding all but my strongest hands and five-betting all-in with the very best of them. It really doesn't matter if my raising range includes "good hands" like JJ or "garbage hands" like 72o; faced with a four-bet, both are going in the muck. It's pretty easy to tell what you should be junking to a four-bet, so I don't see this as a strong argument against my range.

What this all means is that, provided the two hands have roughly the same EV when 3bet, we should only 3bet hands that we can't profitably coldcall. Since we won't get called that often and since calling ranges tend to be pretty strong, hands like 88 are pretty much the same as 44 when 3bet. However the EV of cold calling with 88 is much higher then with 44. And the EV of calling with 44 is much higher then calling with something like 65s, and 65s plays better as the 3bettor anyway. So you should 3bet bluff with hands that you can't coldcall profitably but can almost do so. And coldcall the hands you can.

OK, the big disagreement here is about the cold-calling range. In my mind, the profitable cold-calling range is basically "nothing." If I'm first to act after a raise from a probable thief, I'm simply not cold-calling much. Hands like 88 and 44 can't cold-call a standard-sized raise OOP. We trick ourselves into thinking we've got sufficient implied odds to set-mine but we DON'T. When faced with a steal while holding a hand like that I'm either going to three-bet it or fold it, depending on table conditions. Smooth-calling against all but the most straightforward or loose or aggressive players is just suicidal.

That means I'll almost never 3bet with 88 - JJ and AQ from the range you posted since I can coldcall them profitably.

...and there I simply disagree with you. I don't think that against a typical loose steal you can profitably play these hands for a cold call. There are just entirely too many things that can go wrong postflop for you to be able to succeed with these hands unless you are an AMAZINGLY good hand-reader or your opponent is AMAZINGLY bad. Even with a hand like JJ there's a 50/50 chance that the flop will have an overcard, and how much will you like your JJ when the preflop raiser fires 3/4ths-pot on a K-high board without a J?

Also just because villain has a wide opening range it does not make it a valid reason to 3bet, it's like saying "I'm ahead of his range" and it's nonsense. We should be more concerned with how wide he defends his opens, rather then how wide he opens.

You seem to imply that the two are unrelated. I'm not advocating blindly raising against any steal. I'm not even advocating blindly raising against anybody who steals too much. I'm suggesting that we three-bet often against good opponents who steal too frequently. Our folding equity is solid if we keep our steal frequency relatively small (and 8.3% is relatively small). Combining preflop folding equity, flop folding equity, and the potential to hit a monster makes this a +EV combination. Now, if villain is just a loose maniac idiot who never folds preflop to a three-bet and always floats your c-bets, you should OBVIOUSLY tighten up a bit and play back hard when you hit something. That's just not the typical blind thief.

Even though 3betting may be higher EV then coldcalling I lose out on the EV of 3betting a weaker hand that I'll now have to fold.

You CAN'T cold-call much profitably, and you SHOULD be folding the weaker hands. Remember: you're SUPPOSED to lose money from the blinds. Our goal is not to make a fortune by defending; our goal is to staunch the bleeding as best we can. As a long-time blind thief, I find the very best method to avoid getting destroyed from the blinds is to defend very infrequently but very hard. That means that we almost never call a raise -- we're folding the vast majority of the time and raising almost all of the times we don't fold. The only time I really don't mind calling a steal attempt is if we're overcalling, in position, or mixing up our game.

[xghjase]

i love you pokey ...

[mickske]

marry me?

[Dilznoofus]

Enlightening discussion Pokey and RedJoker. I've gone back and forth on a lot of what you're discussing, though my thought process is nowhere near as sophisticated.

[RedJoker]

Originally Posted by Pokey

I can't leave on vacation without responding to this one.

Have a good one .

I thought about this for awhile, and y'know what? I actually disagree with this point. I think you SHOULD be 3-betting more from the blinds than from the CO or BTN. Why?? Well, because your folding equity is going to be significantly higher when you three-bet from the blinds, either preflop or on the flop.

Standard TAG (whatever that means) opens from the CO. Would you rather 3bet from the BTN or from the SB? Personally my 3bet bluffing range from the BTN will be way wider then my 3bet bluffing range from the blinds.

Think of it this way: a typical 20/15 TAG raises UTG. If you three-bet from the button he's going to fold a significant fraction of his hands, but probably less than half of them. Remember, the guy is 20/15 on average from all seats combined; from UTG he's probably more like 13/12 or 14/13. He's probably not folding more than half of the 12% of hands that he raised with. Moreover, he's going to four-bet you hard with at least a quarter of his entire raising range, and if you were three-betting light you're going to have to fold those. That means that a light three-bet from CO or BTN against a typical TAG is going to be a dangerous move.

77+, AQ+ is 6% of hands. You're really arguing that a 20/15 will continue that wide when somebody 3bets his UTG open?

QQ+, AK maybe which looks like 2.6% of hands or 1/5 of his opening range.

Besides I'd still rather 3bet him from the BTN then from the blinds. And I'd rather 3bet his MP open from the BTN then from the blinds.

However, that same TAG might have a steal attempt of 30%. (Remember, I specified to only loosen up with three-betting against a frequent blind thief.) NOW how does he respond to a three-bet from the blinds? Sure, he's got position, but he was raising a third of his hands! Odds are that you've caught him with a hand he does NOT want to continue playing. Most TAGs will probably fold 2/3rds or 3/4ths of their hands to a resteal. You've got oodles more folding equity than you did against the EP raiser. Also, the odds of a four-bet go down significantly, since he'll only be fourbetting maybe 1/6th of the hands that he three-bet with. (Mind you, I'm just talking about a typical loose blind thief. If you're dealing with someone who is just a hyper-aggro raise monkey, resteals should again be tight.)

Yeah absolutely, restealing from the blinds is important, good, profitable, etc. I'm just arguing that it's even better when you've got position.

That's only true if the competent player has a tight 3-bet range. If they are stealing a third of the time this reasoning simply doesn't apply. I agree that if we start fighting back 100% of the time that he steals this becomes problematic, but if we're only restealing 1 time in 12 he's probably not going to go all nuts on us: he'll just make a straightforward fold. Ideally, he'll even start stealing our blinds less often -- another +EV coup for us.

Yeah that's a fine frequency while OOP. Your IP frequency should be higher though and if you're 3betting him a lot while IP he's going to be less inclined to steal our blinds anyway.

No, SCs play far better than PPs when you have initiative AND POSITION. The reason why I still like my range better (especially for people new to light resteals) is that you KNOW what to do after your c-bet meets resistance. After you make your c-bet you'll either have a set or you won't. Binary. Either/or. If you've got a set, you're going to town. If you don't, you're folding most of the time.

Yeah, but you don't need to 3bet for this to be true about PPs. If you flop a set the pot can be 8BBs or it can be 30BBs, you're still going to town.

With a suited connector, things get noticeably uglier. In the article you quote, goofyballer refers to "hitting the board" VERY loosely. For example, in goofy's setup 6 5 would be considered to have hit the board on a flop of 8 7 6. Not to disparage goofy's work, but would you REALLY call that a 13-outer? I certainly wouldn't. If you were to do the study more carefully you'd find that you flop a solidly made hand with your suited connector LESS often than with a pocket pair.

From the thread:
"I looked at this long ago. My posts are somewhere in the archives.

If you factor out flopping flush draws on paired boards, and straight draws on paired and 3-flush boards against, I get 23.5% or 3.25:1 against flopping 2 pair or better made hands or at least an 8 out draw for suited max stretch 0-gap connectors.

21.3% or 3.7:1 against for max stretch 1-gap suited connecttors.

18.5% or 4.4:1 against for max stretch 2-gap suited connectors. "

So it seems we should be deducting ~2% from the probability of hitting to account for bad board textures.

Also if you look at this thread.

Anatomy of JTs
Hand -- Probability of Hitting It
Strong Draw -- 0.184
Monster Draw -- 0.04485
Top Pair -- 0.1295
Middle / Bottom Pair -- 0.1134
Two Pair -- 0.02
Trips -- 0.0135
Monster Hand -- 0.0223
Dirt / Weak Draw -- 0.47245

They sum to 28.465% but don't take into account bad board textures.

He seems to get a way higher figure for flush draws for some reason. He also included pair + gutshot (9 outs) which Goofy missed I think.

So 23.5% seems like a pretty good estimate of hitting a made hand or an 8 out+ draw.

Also, when a suited connector gets a miracle and flops a flush there's still a very decent chance that villain has an overcard of the same suit; suddenly you're getting called down by an opponent with seven outs to a bigger hand than you! On the other hand, if villain calls down with an overpair or TPTK when you've got a set, he's only got 0-2 outs to beat you.

Ah come on. If you flop a set on a monotone board against an opponent with an overcard of that suit then he's got 9 outs (but you have a redraw) as well.

Board: 9c 4c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.283% 28.28% 00.00% 280 0.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 71.717% 71.72% 00.00% 710 0.00 { 4d4s }

Board: 9c 4c 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.687% 28.69% 00.00% 284 0.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 71.313% 71.31% 00.00% 706 0.00 { JcTc }

And if you're against an overpair JcTc has 3.7% more equity then 44. (68.485% vs. 64.747%).

And if an opponent calls you down with an overpair against your straight or flush he's got 0 outs, well runner runner. Although if you flop two pair he does have much better equity with his overpair (27% vs. 10.5%).

The black-or-white nature of a pocket pair's flop makes it ideal for playing OOP postflop. The shades-of-grey I've-got-outs-but-not-to-the-nuts nature of suited connectors make them markedly harder to play well, especially OOP. Three-betting suited connectors is fine if you know your opponent well and you know how they will react to your bet. It's especially useful if your opponent is going to virtually shut down postflop, checking behind when you want free cards and calling down when you want company. Unfortunately, these opponents are extremely rare, and against a typical enemy I'd like the backdoor insurance policy of a possible flopped set more than the lukewarm flops that suited connectors usual yield even when they "hit."

So let's say you 3bet from the BB and get called by the BTN. The flop comes down XYZ, you cbet and he calls. The turn falls and you shove. Or he raises the flop and you shove. Your range is either overpairs/ TPTK/ monsters (sets)/ underpairs (with 5% equity), when I jam the turn I've got overpairs/ TPTK/ monsters(str8/flush/2pair)/ draws (with 30% - 40% equity). I know which range I'd much rather have.

The times that he folds preflop or to the cbet are irrelevant obviously.

Sometimes it's easier to bluff with air. In a three-bet pot people tend to play a very straightforward game -- "I fit or I fold." It's a rare villain who calls a three-bet preflop and then floats a 15 BB c-bet with garbage. Most of the time they're folding their naked overcards and even their underpairs. However, when you get called (or raised!) I'd really like to have a strong idea of where I stand. This wishy-washy "I've got a crappy pair and an idiot-end one-card straight draw" stuff doesn't fill me with confidence in a three-bet pot where my c-bet got raised. I'm probably going to be forced to go all-in, and I'm going to get stacked a depressing amount of the time. However, with pocket pairs I can escape with 2/3rds of my stack intact if I miss and STILL stack my villain when I hit and he raised my c-bet.

Personally I find it a lot easier to bluff with 30%+ equity then with 2 outs. Even if it is easier to bluff with air (I'm not sure why it would be though), it doesn't make it better then doing it with equity.

Most of the value from a resteal comes from the STEAL part, not the hand value part. Still, when it comes to insurance policies, I'd rather have the pair with its powerhouse potential than the suited connectors with their mushy half-assed hand potential. Suited connectors seem better for a straight raise than a three-bet, because suited connectors really thrive on implied odds.

Yeah the steal part is the big part, but it's not what we're debating here. Whether SCs play better as the initial raiser is irrelevant since we don't have that option anymore.

PPs thrive on implied odds, SCs thrive on reverse implied odds. What I mean is that when I'm firing with my draws I'm relying on him folding his marginal made hands because there's also strong made hands in my range and he's in a reverse implied odds situation. That's why initiative is so important with SCs. With PPs I want implied odds for those times that he has a big hand, whether I have initiative or not isn't hugely important to me (although it's still always nice).

I like this idea only if I think a four-bet is a very likely possibility, but even at the $200NL tables, four-bets aren't all that common. The most likely result by far is that villain simply folds to the resteal. Next most likely is that villain smooth-calls to "see what happens." Least likely by far is that villain four-bets. If I'm faced with a four-bet at $50NL, I'll usually treat it as a super-premium and respond accordingly, folding all but my strongest hands and five-betting all-in with the very best of them. It really doesn't matter if my raising range includes "good hands" like JJ or "garbage hands" like 72o; faced with a four-bet, both are going in the muck. It's pretty easy to tell what you should be junking to a four-bet, so I don't see this as a strong argument against my range.

If he folds to the 3bet JJ = 72o. If 4bets JJ = 72o. So you've turned JJ into 72o except for the times that he calls.

And how is JJ going to do against his calling range? A wise man once said "Even with a hand like JJ there's a 50/50 chance that the flop will have an overcard" . Yeah JJ will do better then 44 against his calling range, however if I have to make a choice between the 2 of them, I'd rather 3bet with 44 and call with JJ then 3bet JJ and call/fold 44. The reason is that we're not going to get called that often so we could express it as 3bet JJ if:

(Prob of villain calling)[(EV of JJ when called) - (EV of worst alternative when called (in this case 44))] > (EV of calling JJ)

Now you might have both of those in your range so change 44 to 65s and the argument still holds.

OK, the big disagreement here is about the cold-calling range. In my mind, the profitable cold-calling range is basically "nothing." If I'm first to act after a raise from a probable thief, I'm simply not cold-calling much. Hands like 88 and 44 can't cold-call a standard-sized raise OOP. We trick ourselves into thinking we've got sufficient implied odds to set-mine but we DON'T. When faced with a steal while holding a hand like that I'm either going to three-bet it or fold it, depending on table conditions. Smooth-calling against all but the most straightforward or loose or aggressive players is just suicidal.

You can't coldcall profitably with 88 - JJ and AQ? Really?

...and there I simply disagree with you. I don't think that against a typical loose steal you can profitably play these hands for a cold call. There are just entirely too many things that can go wrong postflop for you to be able to succeed with these hands unless you are an AMAZINGLY good hand-reader or your opponent is AMAZINGLY bad. Even with a hand like JJ there's a 50/50 chance that the flop will have an overcard, and how much will you like your JJ when the preflop raiser fires 3/4ths-pot on a K-high board without a J?

O.k. let's say you 3bet JJ and your opponent raises your cbet on a K high board, now what?

You seem to imply that the two are unrelated. I'm not advocating blindly raising against any steal. I'm not even advocating blindly raising against anybody who steals too much. I'm suggesting that we three-bet often against good opponents who steal too frequently. Our folding equity is solid if we keep our steal frequency relatively small (and 8.3% is relatively small). Combining preflop folding equity, flop folding equity, and the potential to hit a monster makes this a +EV combination. Now, if villain is just a loose maniac idiot who never folds preflop to a three-bet and always floats your c-bets, you should OBVIOUSLY tighten up a bit and play back hard when you hit something. That's just not the typical blind thief.

They're related in that one is a % of the other. Besides that they're extremely different and his defending range is faaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrr more important then his opening range.

You CAN'T cold-call much profitably, and you SHOULD be folding the weaker hands. Remember: you're SUPPOSED to lose money from the blinds. Our goal is not to make a fortune by defending; our goal is to staunch the bleeding as best we can. As a long-time blind thief, I find the very best method to avoid getting destroyed from the blinds is to defend very infrequently but very hard. That means that we almost never call a raise -- we're folding the vast majority of the time and raising almost all of the times we don't fold. The only time I really don't mind calling a steal attempt is if we're overcalling, in position, or mixing up our game.

Even if we can't coldcall much profitably, the hands that we CAN coldcall (but can't get all-in profitably) should not be 3bet. Unless your opponent calls 3bets a lot.

I completely agree with you about stopping the bleeding as much as possible. Let's say we can only 3bet bluff a maximum of 8% of hands (assume this maximizes our EV for our value hands and our bluffs), would you rather 3bet hands which you can't coldcall profitably or hands that you can?

I'd much rather gain the EV from coldcalling those hands which I can and still have a roughly similar EV from 3betting a slightly weaker 8% of hands.