***Official uNL Stats Checkup Thread***

[pokahpaul]

hey, i'm glad you guys have finally created a new stats thread. the old one was way too long and unorganized.. =[

anyway, i just got back into poker about a week ago and i've been grinding uNL successfully. i'm trying to make the jump to 100nl, but i'm finding 100nl to be a LOT more difficult than uNL and i'm wondering if there's something wrong i'm doing. i'm finding a lot of my opponents to be super aggro and trickier, and i'm not sure how to fight back.

here are my stats for the past week:



that little dip in my graph is from trying 100nl for a bit. hehe =[

if anyone can give me some insight into what i might be doing wrong or have any criticism about my game, PLEASE let me know!

also, not to pick on you Pokey, but can you give me an analysis on my game too??? just like you did for aceofspades????? I'D REALLY APPRECIATE IT!! =P

[T-Bird]

Originally Posted by guitarizt

I recently decided I wanna get better and open up my game, and I think I really need to be cbetting at least 65% of the time and playing more like 22/20, 20/18 than 16/13, 17/14 and only cbetting ~62%.

<edit> I think this is actually pretty normal. I'm probably just playing poorly postflop. I mean my stats at 50nl- are very similar, but I don't hate my winrate there like I do at 100nl ofc.

In my experience (and this NL25/NL50 I'm talking) you just need to pick your spots.

I found myself losing a lot w/oSD when I was giving up if I cBet and it got called. You need to mix it up, throw in some double barrels, float the flop and then pop a bet or raise in on the turn. You just need to work out when you need to be applying this as it is very opponent/situation specific.

[guitarizt]

pokahpaul, your winrate at 50nl looks good. You'll probably get better 100nl you just need more time.

T-Bird, yeah easier said than done right? One thing I noticed is that 50nl seems a lot easier after moving up to 100nl. 25nl is lol easy. I used to struggle at 25nl last fall, and 50nl last spring. I'm not really sure why it seems easier. Maybe I should play a few thousand hands at 200nl to beat 100nl?

[Pokey]

Originally Posted by pokahpaul

also, not to pick on you Pokey, but can you give me an analysis on my game too??? just like you did for aceofspades????? I'D REALLY APPRECIATE IT!! =P

Say the devil's name and he appears....

I don't use HEM, but it seems pretty easy to interpret.

First off, some numbers of yours that I would like to see, because they tend to help people spot leaks:

1. W$SF. The "Won Money When Saw Flop" number indicates how effective you are with your overall aggression, especially when combined with WtSD and W$SD. Based on your other stats, I'd guess your W$SF is somewhere in the high 30s or very low 40s. If it's not, it could indicate a problem: a particularly low W$SF says that you're either not aggressive enough postflop (doesn't look like a problem), not selective enough with your aggression, or too straightforward with your aggression.

2. c-bet %. One of the hardest numbers to balance is your continuation bet frequency: too high and you become exploitable by people who press back light. Too low and you become exploitable by people who call preflop with speculative hands. Since you play so tightly preflop, a good number for you would probably be in the 75%-90% range: you can get away with c-betting more often simply because you raise so infrequently. Of course, selectivity is the key here, as with everything else in poker.

On to the analysis. Here's what I see:

1. You don't seem to be playing a very successful game from the big blind. Specifically, you seem to be overly tight. Now, while I agree that Tight is Right from the blinds in general, 9.4/4.7 really crosses the boundary from "responsibly tight" to "paranoid." To my mind, you should be 3-betting more frequently from the blinds than from almost any other position. Why? Because so often you will be facing a steal attempt by a player who has crap. At $50NL and $100NL, lighter resteals from the blinds are absolute rock-solid gold. Here's how you do it: the hand is folded around to CO or BTN who makes a standard raise. You check, and he steals more than 30% of the time. That tells you he has absolute doggy crap quite often. You look down at "22+, AK, AQ" (NOTE: that's 8.3% of your range, or almost double the amount you've been 3-betting from the blinds so far) and you say "time to go to war." At this point, you three-bet solidly: bump it up to about four times his raise. This will win you the pot immediately a remarkably large fraction of the time. When you are called, that's totally cool, too: now, you c-bet ANY flop, but you c-bet WEAKLY. My usual choice is to c-bet only slightly larger than my original preflop raise. I'm talking 50-60% of the pot size, here. Remember: the pot is already very big and many of your opponents are going to be playing fit-or-fold on the flop. Your c-bet wins the pot about 2/3rds of the time even though you're only putting in a small bet. If you are called, only continue with the hand if you really have something, but just making this preflop/flop play will be enormously +EV for you.

2. You are cold-calling WAAAAAY too much. If I'm reading your stats correctly, when you are faced with a raise you cold call an average of 8.7% of the time preflop. Zounds! I just checked my database ($200NL, but close enough) and of the players that I have at least 3,500 hands on there are exactly three winning players with CC% over 8.00. Three. Out of 741. You do not stand in good company. I'd try to get that number cut to 1/3rd of its current level as a start. Anything over 4% should be worrying you, and anything over 6% should be a leak. (Just to give you a reference, my VPIP and PFR look similar to yours but my CC% is 1.59%, so it really can go QUITE a bit lower.) How do you get it down that low? Easy: don't cold-call. If someone raises in front of you, make a decision: do I like my hand enough to three-bet this? If the answer is "yes," then three-bet. If the answer is "no" then you should fold unless you have a VERY good reason not to. Now, overcalling is a different matter; there are times when a speculative hand (usually a pocket pair, but sometimes a suited connector) does quite well overcalling a preflop raise, but for the most part when there's a raise in front you should be looking to either 3-bet or dump it (almost always dumping it, of course). The beauty of this plan is that when you actually find yourself mixed up in a hand postflop you almost always have the betting lead, and that's a recipe for success. Cold-calling is typically far less successful than reraising, barring an opponent-specific read.

3. Scale back that flop aggro. You seem to be going nutso on the flop. A flop aggression over 6 indicates that you're either trying to pick up entirely too many hands on the flop or you're giving up entirely too easily on the flop (or some combination of both, more likely). Some ideas to improve on this: first, not every flop is stealable. When you complete from the SB and four people see the AQQ flop, you do not have folding equity. As a general rule, people do not believe the blinds have an ace in a limped pot, and in a multiway limped pot someone probably DOES have an ace. Kings are about the same. If there are two broadway cards on the table you won't successfully steal often enough to make it worth trying. If the board is reasonably coordinated (two-tone or all three cards bunched reasonably close like T97 or 975) you probably have little folding equity. The best board to bluff from the blinds is three lowish uncoordinated cards: J73r or some such. Next best is an INCREDIBLY coordinated board heads-up: 654, or JT8 all clubs. Pick your battles. Second, recognize good slowplay opportunities. If you raised preflop with AA and the flop comes A44 you do NOT want to c-bet. Checking behind is more likely to get you two streets of action. You've crippled the deck, your opponent can't catch up, and you'd really like him to find a reason to call. a c-bet just pushes him off most of his hands, whereas a check gives you the chance to milk him on the turn and river. Similarly, if you've got AA and the board is A44 and villain donkbets you, consider a smooth-call. When OOP villains donkbet into my pot I only rarely raise; I'd rather force them to make another extremely difficult decision on the turn. Make it excruciating for them and they're less likely to donk you in the future, which makes your plays easier. Also, if you flop well when someone else was the preflop raiser, you're under no obligation to IMMEDIATELY checkraise. Sometimes you make more money by waiting until the turn to snap off two bluffs instead of just the one. This works best if the board is dry so that you don't run the risk of villain drawing out on you. In position I do this even more often, sometimes slowplaying all the way to the river against an aggressive opponent: if he keeps betting, I keep letting him have the lead. Finally, if your opponent is a calling station or if you think your opponent is otherwise extremely unlikely to fold, consider giving up on the flop if you miss badly. You don't have to always c-bet your 33 just because the board is T97; sometimes it's best to just walk away.

[doublehawk]

ok, this is really getting to me now. i'm close to moving down from 50nl, which is frustrating since i feel i'm generally playing well. some of this comes from running like **** - i can't get AA in pf to save my life (twice against shortstacks in the last 50 times i've had them), and on the rare occasion a draw completes for me, some retard's been slowplaying the absolute nuts from the beginning.

edit: sorry, i know i'm whinging, but there is some truth to this.

anyway, i'm getting desperate, and i'd love it if anyone would be able to give me come thoughts on where i can improve. i need all the help i can get at the moment.

cheers

the last 2 months or so, all at 50nl:

[kimos123]

Here are my stats. please comment about what i am doing right/ wrong.
i want to play cash games instead of grinding SnG's since my bankroll is large enough for 25NL.

[Zanton]

Here are my stats for the last 10k hands. I took a shot at NL25 where I was quite even (little less). I returned to NL10 as I think I wasn't comfortable with my bankroll so I could grind a few buyins. I've just went back to NL25 for a few hundred hands. I don't have that much time to play, so I don't have big samples like others.

From my stats, I think I have a problem playing on the button. Do you have any advice for this spot particulary giving my style, and in general ?

Thanks a lot.

[HonestIago15]

Hey all,

I've been playing poker online for a long time but have been attending college at the same time and have not as of yet had the discipline to make it both as a student and a poker player. I used to play SNG's and did really well at them. I took a break for a while and switched to 6 max NL, because I know that's where the best money is once you get really good. I moved up to 50NL a little over a week ago and did really well for a while, and then hit a 5 BI downswing in one day and am down to a pretty pitiful BB/100. I'm really dedicated to learning to play the game now and so I want to turn what could be a big discouragement into motivation to study my game. Any comments on my stats would be much appreciated.

My sense is that I pick up lots of little pots all the time with my postflop aggression but (and this is just a gut impression) I feel like I lose too many big pots. If anyone has any insight I'm all ears!


http://i304.photobucket.com/albums/n...kerstats-1.png


Thanks in advance.

[mistermuni]

Pokey, your analyses of people's statistics are truly amazing. Huge kudos. I know it probably takes you a good amount of time to put in a thoughtful response, but if you find some time i'd love to hear your feedback on my stats posted earlier in this thread.

thanks,
Mr Muni

[absoludicrous]

Just a quick stat check up. Talked to some people, started posting more hands, and re-worked my game in March after 3 months of bad play, bad cards. Hopefully I'm back on the right track.

All the hands I've played since March. Focusing more on shorter, better sessions, and not playing long ones when I'm down or tilting. I've gone back and forth between 2, 4, 6, and 9 tables, feeling most comfortable with 4.

I probably still play a little too loose in EP. Most of that has to do with opening almost all SC's, S1Gappers, etc. I'm working on narrowing my EP range.

All the limits I've played w/ stats:



Position stats:

[xghjase]

aww. no one did my stats

[-Tim-]

Hi, here are my hands on nl50.
My winrate could have been higher but i had a period where I was playing very very bad. Still happy about the result, this is the first time I tried to actually use the things i read about, like folding tp to a turn raize and stuff like that.

Next step is to stop being a Nit. I try to open up my game, but I dont really know how. Everytime I try I find myself in big pots with marginal hands and dont really know what to do. Also i think i need to lose less without showdown. This will probably go side by side.

Please let me know what you think about my stats.

[Pokey]

Originally Posted by mistermuni

Pokey, your analyses of people's statistics are truly amazing. Huge kudos. I know it probably takes you a good amount of time to put in a thoughtful response, but if you find some time i'd love to hear your feedback on my stats posted earlier in this thread.

You asked for it....

First off, the only position where you are truly getting whalloped is the small blind. You're winning back only about a quarter of the money you posted from that position, and you should be able to do MUCH better than that. How can you pull that off? Well, some random thoughts about playing from the small blind:

1. Don't open-limp very much, unless the big blind is a complete retard. You should try stealing VERY often from the small blind if everybody folds to you, mostly because you're getting such phenomenally good odds on the attempt. With a pot-sized raise you're risking $1.25 to win $0.75, so you only have to win 60% of the time to show an IMMEDIATE profit, and most players fold the big blind to a raise at least 2/3rds of the time. Even when the big blind calls, a standard c-bet takes down the pot half the time or more, so you pad your winrate even more.

2. If you have a pocket pair you CANNOT profitably play a raise for set value alone. It always looks soooo tempting: it only costs an extra $1.75 and villain has a whopping $48 behind. With such tasty odds how can I afford NOT to set mine?? Unfortunately, your opponent did not sign an "I'll give you my stack if you hit your set" contract with you preflop. In reality, you'd have to get the pot up to at LEAST $35 before you showed a profit on the deal, and it's going to be hard to convince your opponent to stick in an extra $17.50 ON AVERAGE when you hit your set. Sure, sometimes he'll have AA and stack off, but often he'll have garbage or an obviously second-best hand and he'll dump it. With a smaller pocket pair in the small blind, strongly consider completing instead of raising, especially if you're multiway -- you won't often have enough folding equity to buy the pot very often, and when you miss you'll have some awfully hard decisions OOP and deep when you miss your set on the flop (7.5 out of every 8.5 times). If it's raised in front of you and everybody else has folded, your best bets are either to fold (usually best) or three-bet (only against an aggressive known stealer that you think will lay it down quite often.

3. Go for those orphans. I mentioned in a previous post above how to spot orphaned pots that are stealable; take advantage of it and grab those pots by using your right of first bluff. Alternatively, if you check and it checks through, stab at a pot if the turn card looks like a brick. A great opportunity for turn steals happen when the turn card pairs the board low; people will think your blind got lucky and they'll let you have it quite often. Obviously this is a better play against tight opponents -- don't try to steal against calling stations.

4. Check-raise more. You almost never make a check-raise, even on the flop. At times, it's the absolute best choice available. For example, when you actually flop your set and someone else raised, check to the raiser. Let him bet, and then trap him for a check-raise. If the board is very dry, smooth-call and go for the check-raise on the turn. (Or the river, if you think your opponent will 3-barrel often.) Give your opponent a few chances to bluff before you snap him off; it builds up a bigger pot when you've actually got a hand, and bluff money is tasty money.

----------

The other big issue I see for your play is in your graph: you're bleeding badly in non-showdown pots. Most players at the microstakes lose money from non-showdown hands, but you're taking it to a very unhealthy extreme: you're literally giving back 80% of your showdown winnings in non-showdown hands. That's waaaaay too much. (Side note: my graphs look like the exact opposite of yours. I'm actually winning less than 10% of my total money from showdown hands. Part of the reason is that I'm getting MondoCoolered in all-ins lately, part of it is that I'm a three-fisted aggro-monkey spewtard who chases relentlessly after pots, and part of it is that I play at higher stakes where the term "folding equity" is not purely theoretical.) You need to pick up more of these non-showdown pots. You're actually winning less than 40% of the hands where you see a flop, and considering that you've got TAGgy stats preflop, that's a crime. How can you win more postflop?

1. Make up your freakin' mind. Just because some maniac 44/37/5 check-raises you does NOT mean your JJ is garbage on a Q93 two-tone flop. You do need to make a decision, however. If you think you're good often enough for it to be +EV, call him down. When I say "call him down" I mean "CALL HIM ALL THE WAY DOWN." That does not mean "call the flop raise, call the big turn bet, and fold to the river push." It means "plug your nose and pretend your fold button is broken." You're going to go on Mr. Toad's Wild Ride, here, but if you're convinced it's a +EV situation, stick to your guns and call all the way. Alternatively, if you don't think you have the hand (or the balls) to call him all the way down, then just fold immediately. Don't peel, don't float, don't "see what happens on the turn" -- just dump it and move on. It can be quite frustrating at times, but you lose so much money by calling without commitment (especially against an opponent that you KNOW will bet again) that you're better off just getting away from it up front.

2. Learn to float. So the PFR'er bet the flop. Big whoop. You knew he would, so it's not a big surprise. You've only got KQs (in position), and the board is T73r, so you're done, right? Well, not necessarily. Consider floating occasionally. (NOT always -- that's suicidal. But occasionally.) Especially if you have a read that villain bets flops and gives up on the turn (a handy note to have on an opponent), consider just smooth-calling their flop bet, intending to bet the turn when he checks. You won't have to bet too hard -- 2/3rds pot should do the job -- and you won't have to call if he bets the turn, but this float can be extremely +EV if you use it sparingly.

3. Semibluff -- hard. If you flop a good draw, consider going to TOWN with it. Bet the flop solidly, like you would on any other c-bet, but if you get raised (especially by an aggressive opponent), shove it all in. The combination of folding equity (huge) and outs (several) make this a nice +EV play if the shove isn't much of an overbet. Also, consider the occasional B3BAI on the TURN with a draw, for the same reasons. When you're betting hard you're winning more pots without showdown (+EV), you're disguising your monster hands better (+EV), you're getting harder to read (+EV), and you're going to have more folding equity as players fight back less often (+EV). It's just a hugely winning combination.

4. Go on, make a bluff once in awhile. Here's a nice time to bluff: you smooth-call a raise preflop and the flop comes ace-high with no other broadway cards. It missed you, so you check. Your opponent bets, but he has a c-bet % of over 85%. So you check-raise him to about triple his original c-bet. You're going to have craploads of folding equity, because he's going to absolutely believe that you've got an ace. This kind of play is starting to take baby-steps away from a "fit-or-fold" strategy with your pocket pairs, and it really helps turn those otherwise-losing situations into winners.

Hopefully something in that jumbled mish-mash will prove helpful to you.

[-Tim-]

Originally Posted by xghjase

aww. no one did my stats

Ok, i just looked at them.
I think they are quit similar to mine so that makes it hard to say something smart.

One thing i did notice is that your not positionally aware. Your play the same range of hands from UTG as from the Button. This is bad because you are able to raise much more profitable from later positions because you can play more hands in position. I think you should tighten up UTG, but loosen up on the CO and button.

[PKS Ace]

Originally Posted by xghjase

aww. no one did my stats

I don't have time to analyze all of them right now, but your vpip/pfr/w$wsf/wtsd/w$sd/etc look fairly solid. However, the biggest thing I noticed is that you don't seem to adjust to position, and that's why your attempt to steal is fairly low as well.

At 19/15, your utg vpip/pfr should be more like 14/10 while your button stats should be closer to 25/21.... not exactly, but you shouldn't have the same stats for all your positions. The button is a much more powerful position than UTG, and for that reason, you should be much tighter UTG than the Button.

The amount more valuable the cutoff and the button are than UTG and the Hijack isn't linear either, so your VPIP and PFR should rise somewhat exponentially as you get closer to the button. For example, here are my position stats for the past few days since I started applying that principal a little more liberally than I had been in the past:

Pos | VPIP | PFR
UTG| 20 | 20
HIJ | 21 | 19
CO | 27 | 23
BTN| 39 | 34

As you can see, I'm playing a lot more hands in the CO and the BTN while UTG and UTG+1 are basically the same position for the most part (afaik).

Now, you're numbers are obviously going to be lower than that, but if you tightened up a little bit UTG and UTG+1 and opened up a decent amount in the later positions, your profits should see some improvement.

Hope that helped.