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Old 07-31-2012, 09:55 PM   #1
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Odds to call 4 bet for set mining

    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13622312

    MP: $3.14 (62.8 bb)
    CO: $11.24 (224.8 bb)
    Hero (BTN): $12.50 (250 bb)
    SB: $7.97 (159.4 bb)
    BB: $2.65 (53 bb)
    UTG: $13.13 (262.6 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 9 9
    UTG raises to $0.15, 2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, UTG raises to $1.75, Hero calls $1.25

    Flop: ($3.57) 2 9 5 (2 players)
    UTG bets $2.56, Hero raises to $10.75 and is all-in, UTG calls $8.19




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    How do you calculate the odds necessary to setmine what seems like QQ+

    was this hand correctly played (preflop) ?
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    Old 07-31-2012, 10:07 PM   #2
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    Re: Odds to call 4 bet for set mining

    you shouldn't 3bet preflop vs anyone reasonable, you're not getting called or raised by worse often

    odds of flopping a set are 7.5 to 1. Facing the 4bet you're getting ~10 to 1 implied odds if you take villians whole stack.

    you need to be reasonably confident that villian has QQ+ and won't be folding postflop for your call to be profitable. I think a call is fine b/c villian's range is so strong and I dont expect a fold on hardly any flops with a 9.
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    Old 07-31-2012, 10:34 PM   #3
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    Re: Odds to call 4 bet for set mining

    I want villains stack size to be at least 10x the raise size, lately I've increase it to 12-15x as ranges are wider and not getting paid off enough,

    18-22x for SC's
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    Old 07-31-2012, 10:52 PM   #4
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    Re: Odds to call 4 bet for set mining

    I think just call pre its stantard,why did you raise?
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    Old 08-01-2012, 07:48 AM   #5
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    Re: Odds to call 4 bet for set mining

    I would just call an UTG raise here on the button rather than 3-betting.
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    Old 08-01-2012, 08:22 AM   #6
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    Re: Odds to call 4 bet for set mining

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by noobis View Post
    I think just call pre its stantard,why did you raise?
    I guess it falls into the metagame category , I 3betted quite loosely this particular session not to mention we were deep so when he 4bet hand was pretty much face up and I had the opportunity to hit the jackpot which I did (until the ace came on the river but that's irrelevant).I'm just not exactly sure how to calculate the odds in the heat of the moment , I always instinctively decide whether or not its worth it to go for the set mining when I'm close to sure vilain has overpair and willing to stack.There's also something to be said about having nothing to lose by 3 betting with 99 and a lot to gain.I am confidant enough in my postflop game not to lose a lot if he only flat calls and flop comes K75.We are 250bb deep and by raising him here I really want to take his whole stack and I felt this was a great opportunity given if I outflop him he's basically dead and won't be able to fold.In a way you force him to play for stack.Maybe I'm thinking all of this the wrong way but this was my gut feeling.

    I like to change gears a bit during a session so I'm probably gonna call a lot more than raise with 99 on the button but I do raise sometimes , normally when I have a LAGish table image but a winning one.

    I may of course be overthinking all of this.

    But once we did 3 bet , is a call +ev here?

    I would also be interested in your opinions about how often a good players will only flat the 3 bet with a huge hand? The more often he does the less good the 3 bet becomes , but particularly at 250bb deep if he always 4 bet 3betting pocket pairs might not be a bad play to play for stack no?

    Last edited by IQofGenius; 08-01-2012 at 08:35 AM.
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