Call or fold on river? Turn x/r at this limit still indicates mostly sets, so that I am not sure if this call was correct.

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 103.12 BB
SB: 103.8 BB (VPIP: 10.59, PFR: 8.24, 3Bet Preflop: 3.23, Hands: 88)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 67.52 BB (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 66.67, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
MP: 132.88 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
CO: 47.52 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q Q

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.48 BB, SB calls 2.08 BB, fold

Flop: (5.96 BB, 2 players) 8 6 J
SB checks, Hero bets 2.84 BB, SB calls 2.84 BB

Turn: (11.64 BB, 2 players) 4
SB checks, Hero bets 5.56 BB, SB raises to 16.68 BB, Hero calls 11.12 BB

River: (45 BB, 2 players) T
SB bets 41 BB, Hero calls 41 BB

River should be a fold imo.
Villain turned his hand into a bluff but was telling a very good story. Otr, he could have 57s that has it, a Q9s that picked up a Fd to go with it, flopped sets (88 and 66 only, villain has a 3bet range)
There wont be enough bluffs in his range after you called a turn bet, specially with this size!
But def, take a note in that.

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+1

don't post results

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I know it's only 90 hands but that's still pretty nitty so I'm likely to just fold turn if he'd gone bigger. River looks like a fold in general.

he had 77 so call I guess

I agree with you guys. On the river should be a fold. Maybe even on the turn if we are planning to fold the river (just 2 outs to improve).

not folding turn

The hand is probably to strong to fold on the turn, but if we assume that villain do not x/r turn as a bluff/semi-bluff and we are planning to fold the river by not hitting our 2 outs don't you think that a fold should be taken into account? Calling with the intention to fold on the next street is something that I am trying to elimate from my game. And as said at the mictostakes turn x/r are mostly a very strong range without to many bluffs.

Actually I think that river is reasonably safe.

He's saying he has a set of 8's or a set of 6's, probably discounting a set of 8's as he probably 3 bets that pre vs BTN open most of the time. Q9 is going to check raise flop if anything, a bit loose to check call a gut shot and check raise turn and I would be surprised if he flatted it in the first place in the sb. Pretty much never has 75s / 97s as he 3 bets this pre which leaves one hand, a set of 6's.

You can't fold turn just because you get check raised and it looks like a set. How easy would it to play against you if you mucked an overpair so easily? So it's a turn call and when the river bricks you need to make the call.

A lot of regs at NL25z are still flatting middle pairs (77-TT) in the SB cause the hands are too strong to fold and people dont want to face a 4bet. I would agree with the rest of your analysis. But I think a high percentage of the time you will see a set 66/88. Especially from someone with VPIP/PFR stats like 10/8.

Yeah I understand, if you have tight stats on him over a good sample then maybe it would sway you to make the fold.

But that said, sometimes you just need to make the call and get beaten.

fwiw don't like his bluff at all

He prolly just saw blockers to 75s and said **** it, seems to be the trend recently.

haha basically.

Fk yeah I flat 75s, Q9s, T8s, raise turn w/ JTs. River, I'm all in cnts

I agree, except the assumptions about 3 betting ranges, a mix of 3betting and flatting 88, 57s, 79s is fair to assume I think. Ah, just seen the stats, muck it then I guess, small sample though

I think it would make more sense to flat your small suited connectors if it went CO raise, btn open as your getting more value on your call. But I think it would be a mistake to flat it vs 1 open.

Maybe im wrong?

From my experience at this stake I would say that people are mostly using a depolarized 3bet strategy in the SB vs unknowns and calling vs BU with medium pairs and some broadways. Therefore, I do not expect to see a lot of hands like 75s, 97s either in the 3bet nor in the calling range. People start 3bet this hands SB vs BU mostly when they punish you for folding to much vs 3bets. Since I did not have much history with villainy I would exclude these hands. 100 hands are not a lot I know, but even over 100 hands you can start to make assumptions based on VPIP/PFR. This kind of villain will definitely not run something like 22/18 even over bigger sample size.

Some good points here by Ausi and sule, but all of your assumptions are defining a linear 3bet strategy for villain.
And it's fair to say a 10/8 (even on 100 hands) is going to be linear, but as a general hand reading on this type of opponent, his range is verry capped and it's top of his range on the turn a huge percentage of the time.
88 and 66 is on his flatting range here, and on the turn, he shows strenth and continues to show it again on the river.
I know it was a bluff from him, but Sule, could you tell me what exactly are you beating on the river? What part of his range is going to continue the turn and river with aggression when he gets there?
I know you won the hand, but beleive me you won't win it too often in the long run against this line of action and this type of player.
It's way better to make a small folding mistake, rather than a big calling one.


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No it isnt. The 3% overall 3bet means nothing. For example some ppl will have a 15% 3bet, but will only do it from btn and co. On the other hand, some people with a 3% bet and may only do so from sb.

Also 88 hands doesn't give us any clue about his 3bet strategy.

Yes I know the number of hands are small. That's why I mentioned vpip and pfr only!
It's a assumption based on a NIT player pool at 10NL.(my assumption)
Not based on stats in 88 hands.


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Why would his vpip/pfr give us a clue about his 3betting strategy?
What I ate yesterday wont influence tomorrow's weather, will it?

My post was clear.
There is a general read and tendencies of each player type at a certain limit that you can have and I stated my assumption, that's all I'm going to say.
Continue to create non-relevant matters as you wish.

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Looks like fold otr call down with two pairs sets str8s maybe AA and AJ

no results no resultsno resultsno resultsno results!!!!

easy fold ott

glgl

That is if you're assumming V will PSB at every single river card. When he raises turn your main concern is getting to showdown at an affordable price for your hand now that his range got stronger, and unless you think V will bomb
with every single river, calling turn ready to fold river is not that bad of an idea.

I'd 3bet/squeeze all of it, but that's mostly to do with not getting played back at at 10nl. Readless I think we have to assume that mix of 3bet, flat, fold.