Quote:
Originally Posted by Waaario69
Without a spade in our hand checking the flop is just asking for the value of our hand to take a significant dive on about 1/5 of turns where we won't be redrawing. I agree that we can xb AsKx at a very high frequency but K58ss is a board that we will often get 2 streets from a worse hand and sometimes 3 on really good runouts. Also, Being slightly deepstacked we can expect villains 3bet calling range to be slightly wider than usual to include more suited connector type hands. Against this wider than normal preflop range we can bet into villain on flop and turn and profitably x/c bricked runouts.
As played I would be folding at 25NL vs an unknown. Sure, every draw missed. However, huge overbet bluffs like this are in such a small % of random 25NL players arsenals that I think we will legitimately be against villains thin value range most of the time here OTR. Usually the unknown 25NL players will just snap pot here or something OTR as a bluff, they don't really understand the power of polarizing the crap outta their range like this. If we were at 100NL against a reg I'm calling OTR. Against a random at 25NL I'm folding without thinking twice about it
I definitely agree that if we held the As checking back would be better than checking back a hand with no redraw such as this one. I can definitely see us getting at least 2 streets of value from weaker pairs and draws, so betting flop was definitely the correct move here. Fwiw villain showed up with 88.