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NL25 Weird river spot NL25 Weird river spot

07-26-2016 , 02:33 PM
6max hand. Villain is an unknown, most likely a reg. Im a bit confused here.

BTN: $61.99 (248 bb)
SB: $34.10 (136.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $95.43 (381.7 bb)
UTG: $26.56 (106.2 bb)
MP: $26.59 (106.4 bb)
CO: $29.78 (119.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K A
4 folds, SB raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, SB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.50) K 5 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($4.50) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $2.88, Hero calls $2.88

River: ($10.26) J (2 players)
SB bets $28.97 and is all-in
NL25 Weird river spot Quote
07-26-2016 , 02:39 PM
Bet flop!!

Fold river vs unknown
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07-26-2016 , 02:40 PM
Why on earth do you check flop? Esp against an unknown.
River is confusing, usually these shoves are the nuts to me until proven otherwise.
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07-26-2016 , 03:45 PM
Ugh, always bet flop here. Always call river I think, He's trying to get you off a weak hand since you seriously underrepped your hand.
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07-26-2016 , 03:49 PM
In hindsight of course I would have bet flop. I checked to under rep my hand in order to induce exactly this kind of thing, only a little less extreme. Villain is really only repping sets. He never shows up with JJ here so he is realistically only repping 88 and 55. And even then is he really overshoving 3x the pot with these middle/bottom sets? Thats what has me confused here
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07-26-2016 , 04:23 PM
You should be checking back some AK combos here, but not these. As played, every draw bricked so im calling

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NL25 Weird river spot Quote
07-26-2016 , 05:51 PM
As mention above bet the flop we can check other combos but we have to bet this.

As played river is probably a fold. vs 99% of the player pool at 25nl this is gona be value super often.
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07-26-2016 , 06:43 PM
bet flop fold river

xb AK at a frequency
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07-26-2016 , 11:46 PM
Without a spade in our hand checking the flop is just asking for the value of our hand to take a significant dive on about 1/5 of turns where we won't be redrawing. I agree that we can xb AsKx at a very high frequency but K58ss is a board that we will often get 2 streets from a worse hand and sometimes 3 on really good runouts. Also, Being slightly deepstacked we can expect villains 3bet calling range to be slightly wider than usual to include more suited connector type hands. Against this wider than normal preflop range we can bet into villain on flop and turn and profitably x/c bricked runouts.

As played I would be folding at 25NL vs an unknown. Sure, every draw missed. However, huge overbet bluffs like this are in such a small % of random 25NL players arsenals that I think we will legitimately be against villains thin value range most of the time here OTR. Usually the unknown 25NL players will just snap pot here or something OTR as a bluff, they don't really understand the power of polarizing the crap outta their range like this. If we were at 100NL against a reg I'm calling OTR. Against a random at 25NL I'm folding without thinking twice about it
NL25 Weird river spot Quote
07-27-2016 , 12:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Waaario69
Without a spade in our hand checking the flop is just asking for the value of our hand to take a significant dive on about 1/5 of turns where we won't be redrawing. I agree that we can xb AsKx at a very high frequency but K58ss is a board that we will often get 2 streets from a worse hand and sometimes 3 on really good runouts. Also, Being slightly deepstacked we can expect villains 3bet calling range to be slightly wider than usual to include more suited connector type hands. Against this wider than normal preflop range we can bet into villain on flop and turn and profitably x/c bricked runouts.

As played I would be folding at 25NL vs an unknown. Sure, every draw missed. However, huge overbet bluffs like this are in such a small % of random 25NL players arsenals that I think we will legitimately be against villains thin value range most of the time here OTR. Usually the unknown 25NL players will just snap pot here or something OTR as a bluff, they don't really understand the power of polarizing the crap outta their range like this. If we were at 100NL against a reg I'm calling OTR. Against a random at 25NL I'm folding without thinking twice about it
I definitely agree that if we held the As checking back would be better than checking back a hand with no redraw such as this one. I can definitely see us getting at least 2 streets of value from weaker pairs and draws, so betting flop was definitely the correct move here. Fwiw villain showed up with 88.
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07-27-2016 , 06:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maverick93
In hindsight of course I would have bet flop. I checked to under rep my hand in order to induce exactly this kind of thing, only a little less extreme. Villain is really only repping sets. He never shows up with JJ here so he is realistically only repping 88 and 55. And even then is he really overshoving 3x the pot with these middle/bottom sets? Thats what has me confused here
Not sure why you think he never shows up with JJ?

JJ seems pretty likely if he decided to bet it on the turn for protection.
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07-27-2016 , 07:02 AM
Why is it good to check back As K on this flop?
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07-27-2016 , 07:16 AM
all AK should be pure cbet.

on river prob just call KJ, JJ and 52/22 if you have it. that should be fairly close to mdf vs this sizing anyway, add some Kx no club if you think hes overdoing it.
NL25 Weird river spot Quote
07-27-2016 , 08:04 AM
I think all AK combos should be bet on the flop given positions but I'd be happy to be proved wrong. Maybe at 25nl it doesn't really matter anyway.

River I probably fold
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07-27-2016 , 03:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Getabagin
Not sure why you think he never shows up with JJ?

JJ seems pretty likely if he decided to bet it on the turn for protection.
Fair point.
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07-27-2016 , 03:39 PM
I would just like reiterate: bet flop.
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