he is not 3betting 30% ffs. It's 50 hand sample, he's played 50 hands TOTAL. Not 50 hands where villain had a chance to 3bet. Thus, the error margin in 3bet stat is somewhere around 1000%

IF he was 3betting 30% then 4bet jamming would be printing money because QJ has decent equity against his calling range, or if not, then he's calling range is too tight and we make ****load of money by just taking it down every time

and you don't want to shove every flop because you rarely have enough equity to do so. RIO is not negligible when we go broke every time when both flop TP, but never stack a worse TP

100bb stacks flatting would be better but 4b bluffing is again just printing money. There is no need to start flatting 3bets with crap when you can just 4b/f. Flat the suited ones and hands that actually can dominate some of his hands but are not dominated by every single broadway hand in his range

His 3-bet stat might not be so accurate, but 49/49 out of 50 hands is crazy.

Calling and not folding top pair probably wouldn't be bad.

All you need to do is look at his stack and it's a instafold.

Missed his stack size. You can fold.

don't you have a chance to 3 bet every time you're not UTG and any time there's not already a raise and 3 bet before it's your turn to act? I haven't played so low in a long time but I'd imagine NL 25 to not play very aggressively preflop for the most part. so he still had a chance to 3 bet around 40 times I'd say. He 3 bet 30% out of the 40 opportunities he had which is 12/40 so I wasn't that far off. it's reasonable to assume someone playing 49/49/30 after 50 hands is an aggressive player and it's unlikely he turns out to be a 15/12/2% 3bet player.

that's pretty obvious, it doesn't prove that calling is bad or worse though.



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if he open shoved the flop we'd need 39,5% equity to call which we we do have on around 45% of all flops. considering that he 3 bets so much and sometimes incorrectly bet/folds with like A2 on T87 I think getting it in (by shoving over his cbet) any time we have 30% vs his range is fine. this is the case on 60% of flops.

I don't consider 2 broadway cards crap against someone 3 betting 30%.

Please tell me how you 3bet if no one has raised in front of you. If average pfr is around 20 then someone will raise about 60% of hands, excluding yourself and bb. Maybe half the time it happens in front of you so that's like 15 hands. So he has 3bet maybe 5 times.

You don't seem to understand that his 3bet range =/= his stack of range when you flop something. Not to mention that you really don't know what his 3bet range is in the first place. Even if he did 3bet 30% you're probably still a dog equity wise, not to mention playability of your hand vs his range

Dude.. If you open yourself you cant 3bet, if no-one opens before you cant 3bet. If someone else 3before you cant 3bet 40/50 hands. Way less, so like fsn said error margin on that stat is too ridiculous for basing a decision on.

You don't have a 45% chance of improving otf, more like 17%. The 45 is if you see all cards. With that logic you might as well shove pre/shove over any flop bet.

Some people ITT Really need to learn the concepts of SS and how to play shorties.

argh of course you're right w/r/t his 3 bet stat.
I'm aware of this

shouldn't we be able to make better decisions postflop than a fish? I think initiative accounts for some % but surely there's a cutoff somewhere. we need to call $1,35 in $4,1 preflop -> ~33%. shouldn't the 12% overlay we have (QJ vs top 30% has 45% equity) be enough to compensate for his initiative? I do think so. I know I'd never fold here

that's what I'm trying to do here, eh.

the graph shows how much equity we have on the flop against his range. I think this should be the main criteria when deciding whether we continue with our hand or not.

why is he a fish now? well even if he is, we won't really get the chance to make those better decisions postflop

and we're calling 1.35 into less than 3. And initiative is waaaaay more important with low SPR because we can't do anything if we miss. At the same time value of the position goes down

he doesn't have a full stack and plays 49/49/30 after 50 hands at NL 25. it is likely that he is a fish. we can't know for sure but poker is about making plays based on limited information and given the information we have we should assume he is a fish.


what stops us from clicking the call or raise button when we have enough equity to get it in against his range?

calling a SS with this hand is blowtorching $50 bills

I wouldn't perceive him as a fish, more like a reg. Depends what stacksize he started with tho.

This is not owning a fish with better decision. This is simply making decisions based on our equity/hand regardless of our opponent. We will not be able to capitalize on our skill edge with these stacks and we will not flop enough equity often enough.

I'm just repeating myself which seems pointless since you clearly are not willing to accept what i'm saying so gonna let this thread go now.

I just find your arguments to be very weak. like where do you draw the line? clearly we're not folding when we're a favourite against his range and in position right? so how can it be a clear fold when we have 45%? let's just assume that he does in fact 3 bet 30%, for simplicity's sake.

Trololololo