River too thin to bet for value against a reg?

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BTN): $25.37
SB: $34.62 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 25, 3B: 11, AF: 0.6, Hands: 24
BB: $12.69 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 0.5, Hands: 72
UTG: $20.67 - VPIP: 24, PFR: 18, 3B: 0, AF: 2.0, Hands: 38
MP: $11.36 - VPIP: 32, PFR: 24, 3B: 16, AF: 5.0, Hands: 182
CO: $27.30 - VPIP: 29, PFR: 21, 3B: 10, AF: 1.6, Hands: 322

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A T
2 folds, CO raises to $0.25, Hero raises to $0.90, 2 folds, CO calls $0.65

Flop: ($1.95) 3 A T (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $1.10, CO calls $1.10

Turn: ($4.15) 8 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $2.85, CO calls $2.85

River: ($9.85) K (2 players)
CO checks, Hero ?

check

pre is questionable, especially vs what seems to be a solid opponent. This deep, use more suited and connected combinations although position really does play in our favour

seems close-ish but I would lean towards betting and target worse two pairs and AJ/AQ so using a ~40% bet sizing.

And what hands will you be bluffing for that size ?

wouldnt need a lot of bluffs with that sizing, u could use 97s for example

without the Td I would be more likely to check behind. With the Td, i would be more inclinded to Vbet.

But the only hand I can see villian calling with is AJo. Value is very thin and we do not want to get c/r' ed here. I would check back i think. AK also beats us now btw..

You mean AQ? Yes there are 8 combos of AQ and we expect V to raise nuts and some FDs on the way, it is not easy for him to find 8 better hands.
Ofc otr we dont have many bluffs when river completed so many semibluffs. Just bet small and dont care much about bluff range.

Oops typo, yes AQ, thanks for the correction.

Its true it is not easy for him to find 8 better hands, but of course that is assuming he will almost always c/r or lead a (S)FD/set/AK (which we really cant know if he does)
and also of these AQ, we really cant expect him to call all that often either (because as u said, we have very few bluffs here).

I do see the merit in vbetting, just because the value is so thin and we seem to have not many reads on villian, i would maybe take the safer way and check, see a showdown. If he has AQ, i didnt learn that much, but if we see a flush/set/AK, we did learn a lot of info.

So yu would be smallisbetting/folding then (in case he c/raises)?

Yes I think we can bet/fold and do bit better than check back.

Its just tough to get called here.
AxQd, AxJd may be good bluffcatchers for CO here tho may also be inclined to x/r

I also don't expect to lose much at all here, unless CO flatted AK pre which is possible. (and nice info to gain)

Given these factors i think i like a checkback in practice.

Not sure what the theory is might be bet with Td

I dont believe any Ax makes bluff x/r. Actually for V it is harder to have bluffs than for OP.

Not much you lose to, only a few combos of flushes you lose to like 78dd 89dd QJdd and he might fold the lower combos pre to a pretty big 3b