[converted_hand][hand_history]Party, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37398220

BB: $11.90 (119 bb)
BTN: $11.96 (119.6 bb)
Hero (CO): $16.94 (169.4 bb)
SB: $9.90 (99 bb)
MP: $4.38 (43.8 bb)
UTG: $9.19 (91.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 A
UTG calls $0.10, MP folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 2 folds, BB raises to $1.40, UTG calls $1.30, Hero calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.25) 3 2 8 (3 players)
BB bets $2.40, UTG calls $2.40, Hero raises to $15.54

We have v little fold equity, if any, so flat imo and nice odds to do it. Don't need to raise the flop really - we have 88 and maybe the other sets but we don't necessarily need to ship our sets - but if we do then I'd rather shove A4 and A5hh with 4 additional wheel outs -and maybe AKhh with blockers and pair outs to JJ/QQ.

I think villain squarely has JJs+ or 1010. Don't think 'I have two overs to the board', think 'If called, do I have two overs?" How much more likely is he to have A8 or an 8 than an overpair given his preflop 3bet?

That being said, you're 42.59% vs. a range of 88s so there should be enough dead money in the pot to make this profitable.

I agree with Tomj that A4 and A5 are better hands to do this with if there was less dead money in the pot. In this particular spot with UTG giving you $3.80, nice play.

(said stupid thing and deleted )

Yea you´re def right that two overs don´t mean **** here, maybe my ace is alive.
I was 50/50 betw calling/raising.
By calling I keep poss worse fd:s in the pot. But if the turn bricks and villain shoves, then I hate it.
I guess I was also trying to make my life easier by shoving...

Yeah I'd agree you have very little fold equity but you don't need much to make it profitable. But that being said I woudn't have a raising range here for the simple fact the your only value hand is 88. Everything else in your range is a bluff catcher or a flush draw. Yes it'll suck when you brick off and have to fold to a shove on the turn but I don't see any other way to play this.

I was gonna say fold pre to the 3bet but I don't know because no one else is suggesting it. I like just a call on the flop as you're risking $2.40 to win $9.05 and you only need to be right 21% of the time. I think raising/shoving is just overplaying your hand.

I would personally be more inclined to just call if the 2c was instead the 7 on the flop. Reasoning being on the turn you can pick up an open-ender, a gutshot, and have the odds to call again if bb bets and UTG calls. It gives you 1.49% more immediate equity on the flop.

As often as 6/47 = 12.7% of the time, with the 7c instead of 2c, you would pick up an OESD on the turn with an offsuit 6 or 10. You have as strong as 37.19% vs 88s+ (except vs. set of 10s on the turn) on the turn as opposed to 24.79% every time you don't have backdoor straight equity on the flop.

A 10 on the turn may not be as good, but you can steal the pot from 99s now more (which have to fear Jh-Ah with the 10h more often than he'll turn top set.

An offsuit 5 is not as great, but another 6.38% of the time you go to the turn with 31.30% equity vs. 88s. I wouldn't shove on a five as you won't have as many value combinations but you might even have odds to call down to the river. With this much dead money in the pot courtesy of UTG you can still.

So almost 20% of the time when you don't hit a flush, you turn 7% or 12.4% equity which you can either call again on or semibluff shove on. On 10 and 6 turns, you can represent two pair, a made straight, TPTK + flush draw, etc. If he can fold an overpair, it would be a profitable shove on the turn. You can continue with the hand about 39% of the time (pick up straight draw or hit flush). Or you turn a 9 or A, which is another 12.7% of the time. You improve 39% of the time on a flop of 832 but improve nearly 52% of the time on 873.

But with the Ah9h on this board, you will improve significantly less often. I think this leans toward a shove because more often than not, exactly as you mentioned, you'll be forced to fold turn with a bare flush draw. With backdoor equity, you can maybe pass up the profitable flop shove spot in order to try and cooler UTG and create a great 3-way all-in spot. In a 3bet pot, I play this the same way and shove too. It's +EV, it isn't spew, don't worry about it man.

Raising looks fine

im going with this hand almost 100% of time.
too much dead money, too much equity for us to draw alive.
Even going 3way we should have 36% equity, if one person folded we likely are flipping most of time.
we only need 18% fold frequency for this shove to be profitable. And I'm 100% we are going to get more than that.

Good point. The main reason I called the 3-bet is that UTG was 59/0 station after 100 hands. Also, position helps.

just jam. Best way to realize equity imo and we can rep all sets

Call flop. You are in position with draw to the NUTS and very good odds. Usually you have super small fold equity when you raise in this spot.

BTW pre is fold.