Hello, everyone i would like to start doing a hand analysis and hoping to get feedback from you if it is correct or not, if it is not i would appreciate if an explanation is given in order to improve.

This is my reasoning away from the table.





So the situation here is against an unknown player, and although he looks fishy his range is a bit wide which of course smashes our own range.
Being a bit generous with our hand i gave a range of 22% call to the villain agains his 40% RFi (on CO position)




FLOP
After the flop comes 3QJ we still have a decent amount of hands that we are beating, and in fact from the range given we have an equty of 51.6%.
So the continuation bet here is correct even with 2 overcards from our pair on the board.

TURN
The A appears and i am not starting to like much mi hand, deciding that the check/ fold is the best option.
But facing a bet of almost 1/4 pot, give us a good chance to go chasing our Draw.
So we would be needing a 15% of equity to be calling this bet. Right now we have a 44.8% so we are good. anyway if the bet was a little bit bigger we can fold it with no problem.
So i am aware that our range is way behind right now, but it can improve drastically.


RIVER

Now we are depending on the river.

So we win if Harts appear (considering he does not have the K of Hearts)
and we have all the K also.

We loose against the rest of the cards.


Please let me know if you agree with the analysis made, if you want to add something to it.

Flop is kind of meh. Turn is probably fine.

I cant see last few spoilers
You can just flat pre imo its ok because you getting called by few stronger pocket pair or by two overs and V will be ip so not so great spot for you and you dont need to worry about BB 3b this spot often because we are "protected" by MP strong opening range.
AP-Just c/f flop.I dont see how we have 51 % of equity?Maybe we have vs his whole range but we should care about equity vs MPs calling range.
Turn is ok to just jam unless you think V is station.We have pretty clean outs and we def can rep some strong hands

I thought the stats where posted in the hand but...
In 88 hands
VPIP 32
PFR 15
RFI CO 40
F3BET 0 (2 HANDS)
F CBET 3BET 0

AF f: 3
AF t: 6
AF r: 6

WWTS 26


Would you check the flop? and call or fold?

Considering that from the 259 initial combos, he is going to keep with only 122combos (with A combos)



So against his range of calling 3bet, we do have over 50% of equity, now against the calling range we have a 27.2%


Now, it has come to my attention by several people that i would, or i should check the flop in this pot.
If we are checking the flop, is an EV+ move?
Can i ask what is the line to follow in certain cir****ances?

Situation 1:

Flop
Check, check

Turn
?

Situation 2:

Flop
Check, bet 1/2 pot, hero?

Situation 3:

Flop
Check, bet 2/3 (or more), hero easy fold?

As for your analysis I think you estimate your equity to high. E.g. otf you have 3rd pair after you 3bet pre MP. Do you really believe you have over 50% equity?

As for hand calling pre (but rather 3b against late position and against MP not mistake).
Flop going for x/f and bye, maybe could fold once when V checks back and turn improves us a bit. But basicaly Im in give up mod otf.

Ok, so the mistake is pre flop vs MP.
is true this, Haizemberg93 mention it before also.
Maybe i should short my 3bet range.

I would check flop hoping he check down some A highs and all lower pocket pair if he dose bet just fold,because Vs value bet beat us with huge equity and his bluffs have lot of equity vs our hand.

I think check is +EV move because we win some times when it goes check check and if we bet as yourslef said it we are destroyed by Vs calling range and he is not over folding this board imo

Check flop has gotta be the play, what turns are we looking to barrel on when we bet? We also have some SDV vs. range. I don't really like turning TT into a bluff OTF since we have some sdv and when we barrel, we're not drawing to the nuts. I would x/f this combo OTF since we block T9,KT,AT, and some heart combos. AP, call turn is definitely the play.

We're against a shortstacker, and SSers are often going to play aggro OTF when they spike something, that gives us more incentive to check flop. Just because we have an equity advantage vs. range doesn't mean we should be betting. Consider a balance perspective, in which if we bet all of Qx,JJ,TT on this flop we're going to open ourselves up to get owned by raises.

Grunch: just because you're at 51.8% equity against his range OTF does NOT make the flop cbet good, just because you have the data, and the raw equity numbers at your disposal you also need to look at your opponents continuing range against your flop cbet (hint, he's not calling with his entire preflop range) so basically you're really only getting called by better, or folding out worse)

C/f as soon as he bets, no reason to play guessing games here

Really dislike the flop bet

OK, so yes, it is establish that the biggest error in this hand is not preflop but on the flop, where:
The continuation bet is a mistake for certain reasons:
1. The flop is already over us, and we can not make a 2nd or 3rd barrel for value as we transform our hand to a bluff
2. The range of the villain´s call is over our hand (not considering our range)
3. We lose the polarized check, increasing our cbet range to more bluffs than value hands.
4.(more than welcome to add extra reasons)

(Sorry if i try to get technical and organize the information)

Thank you for helping me on this mistake from my game.


Lets say i 3Bet MP from SB a 7%. (83 combos)(AA-TT,AKo-AQo,KQo,AKs-ATs,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs) 100%

I would (or should) be cbetting: JJ, KK, AA, AQ, AJ? (27 combos) 33%
Checking and calling (or re raising): KQ, AKs, QQ, QJs, QTs? (36 combos) 43%
Folding: TT,AJs-ATs,KJs-KTs (20 combos) 24%

Is this correct?
Which modification would you do (in this situation, no bluffs, no draw chase)?

Add some bluff in your betting range obv something like AT KT and IMO AK is good bluff too it draws to the nuts and A or K are very often our outs and dont cbet AJ and we should have some C/R

You should probably have a wider 3b range from the SB than 7 or 8%. Your calling range in the sb should be extremely narrow (can't really imagine any hands you'd want to call with except low pocket pairs)

OTF you generally want approx a 66% value bet range and a 33% bluff range.

This means WHEN you bet 33% of the time they won't be made hands (I put weaker draws into this category when I'm OOP gutshots, some bdfds with overs/hands that don't have any blockers to draws.)

The 66% is for value top pairs, two pairs, sets etc.

By using this strategy your opponent is indifferent whether he calls or folds, never able to make a +ev move in the long term (calling $1.00 to win $2.00 = he needs 33.3% equity, but 66.6% of the time he's going to be behind.)

Then you need to balance your checking range, have some stronger draws (OESD) nut flush draws mid pairs, low pocket pairs and of course complete air that you give up with, this makes it so your opponent can't bet and take the pot every time you check the flop.

You could also add some monsters and strong draws with blockers into your cr range aswell

So in this situation from SB to MP i have a vpip of 11.3%.
in which I 3bet a 7.4%, not leaving many hands behind for a CC, as to be honest I prefer to flat call a BTN or maybe CO, but against EP and MP ranges, OOP, I do not like the flat call.

Now that being said. if we consider a range of 7.4% (88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+) (110 combos 100%)


In this situation we can see that there are not many bluffs.
So separating this in a way would be important.
Trying to reach the 66% i will divide this in 3 categories
(GGG)
Garbage :Will not improve
Good: Is decent, but not the best
God: Can improve

Garbage: TT-88,AdJd,AsJs,AcJc,KdJd,KsJs,KcJc,AdTd,AsTs,AcTc,Kd Td,KsTs,KcTc,AJo ( 42 combos 38% )
Good: KQs,AdKd,AsKs,AcKc,AdQd,AsQs,AcQc,AhJh,KhJh,AhTh,K hTh,AQo+ (38 combos 34.5%)
God: JJ+,AhKh,AhJh,QdJd,QsJs,QcJc,AhTh (30 combos 27.5%)

I presume the fold is all Garbage here so we are left with a 62% of our 3bet range
now, in this range of Good and God hands will you be cbeting all? or x/c some hands like KJs?

This not true or at least to general. 2:1 value/bluff is correct ONLY for river potbet with polarized range. For semibluffs flop, turn many ppl use something like 1:2 value/bluff flop and 1:1 on turn. Again it is for potsize, decrease with decreasing betsize.
Our betting strategy must also reflect the flop, how much it hits our/V range, adjust betsize and bluffing to the fact.

This is some interesting information.
Sorry to ask. But do you have a link or article i can read in order to get deeper on this topic?

Dont have links to articles, you can find interesting source here at general poker/poker theory forum.
The 2:1 value otr comes from the fact you want to make V's bluffcatchers indiferent neither winning nor losing. With potbet he needs win 33% thus your bluffs are 33%. You can easily compute bluff/value ratio for other betsizes. E.g. 1/2pot bet bluffcatcher needs 25%equity and you have 1 bluff to 3 valuehands.
Flop and turn are diferent because your semibluffs still have good chance to outdraw made hand and your EV is created both by fold equity and hand potential.
Note that decreasing bluff/value ratio means you give up some bluffs street by street unless runouts improved part of bluffing range.

I would check on the flop. Ap, i would keep barreling on the turn for sure

Thanks man!
I never thought it that way, i like the logical aspect of it and will try to dig deeper