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NL10 - AQs in sucky spot NL10 - AQs in sucky spot

05-30-2016 , 04:21 AM
Small sample, but fishy stats.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 113.6 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
BTN: 210.5 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 12)
Hero (SB): 100 BB
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)
UTG: 71.7 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP: 56.1 BB (VPIP: 54.55, PFR: 36.36, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 12)

Hero posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 10.5 BB, fold, MP calls 7.5 BB

Flop: (22 BB, 2 players) 2 2 J
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (22 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero bets 11 BB, MP calls 11 BB

River: (44 BB, 2 players) T
Hero checks, MP bets 21 BB, fold

MP wins 42 BB

I think all streets are debatable. Turn I plan to bet-call.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 04:24 AM
Flop is fine. Turn i like c/c better, we still have good SDV and not getting better to fold. As played guess river x/f is best.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 04:31 AM
check call turn
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 04:51 AM
I thought maybe I could like bet-induce turn.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 05:32 AM
All seems fine to me.

Flop is ok because we'll fold his air hands with turn bet, and the rest (if it's not 7high or smt) will call us anyway on that dry flop. I'd bet that turn but mostly because of my thought process that doesn't yet include that AQs has good SDV here so there's no particular point in firing.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 05:56 AM
Might be a call Otr.

Cbet flop small

Fire turn after cbet with your equity.

Sometimes fire river
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 09:49 AM
I would have bet the flop. 22J is a dry flop and since you raised preflop, you can represent the over pair by betting. You bet the turn when the 5 hits, so what are you repping pocket 5s? Checking the turn indicates to me that you have given up and I would call with anything to see what you do on the river. Sometimes you have to double barrel to get them to fold because 3 betting preflop and then checking the flop pretty much tells me that you what you have on the flop.

Thanks!
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-30-2016 , 09:50 PM
With this SPR and these stats, i am not really in the business of trying to fold out better hands, on any street.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-31-2016 , 12:01 AM
If you're trying to value bet turn (which I kind of like) then I'd make it 1/3 pot.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-31-2016 , 02:38 AM
Based on his stack and stats I think we can be pretty sure that villain is a fish on the aggressive side so his range here should be wide. I would have cbet the flop about 13-15BB for value, I think he will float with a lot of weaker hands. When the 5 comes I would bet pot and put him all in. I don't think it helped his hand, it is possible that villain will fold a smaller pp or overcards like QK, AQ, AK and even if he calls we have a lot of outs.
I think it is fine to check flop but is bad to bet the turn just because he looks like the more aggressive fish. He will call often with absolutely nothing because you look weak and on the river he may decide to bluff because he realised he can't win at showdown. And you will be put in a bad spot like you were. If his PFR would be lower I think the bet turn fold river is very ok.
Ap not sure what to do, it is very close.
Would love to here someone's opinions on my thought process.

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Last edited by Moose970; 05-31-2016 at 02:59 AM.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-31-2016 , 06:52 AM
Cbet flop looks better than xc

AP I think you should definitely be checking again ott, your hand is somewhat faceup when you delay cbet and villain can put you in a really tough spot by raising.

AP fold river

FWIW I think cbet flop/turn and xc flop evaluate turn are close EV-wise, I'd opt to play the betting line.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-31-2016 , 09:52 AM
Regarding turn, if I bet i think it's a super easy bet-call. In fact, i sorta bet to induce. I look i have crap all, he looks like he has crap all. My crap likely beats his crap.

River is pretty close imho. He is pretty polarized. There are not many missed draws. So he either floated turn with complete air or maybe like JJ, AA, a deuce. Idk? In retrosoect, river might be a call.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
05-31-2016 , 11:35 AM
Flop's fine. x/c turn.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-02-2016 , 10:40 PM
Cbet flop. So many cards you can double barrel with on turn.

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NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-02-2016 , 10:51 PM
Bet turn bet river to fold out his AQ and AK here and mid pp. If you arent planing on delay double barrel i would just check call turn. Once he calls you on turn you are chopping at best

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NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-02-2016 , 10:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokermike36
I would have bet the flop. 22J is a dry flop and since you raised preflop, you can represent the over pair by betting. You bet the turn when the 5 hits, so what are you repping pocket 5s? Checking the turn indicates to me that you have given up and I would call with anything to see what you do on the river. Sometimes you have to double barrel to get them to fold because 3 betting preflop and then checking the flop pretty much tells me that you what you have on the flop.

Thanks!
I would disagree with not checking the flop. Its super dry board.We cant really double or triple barrel turn and river when he calls flop. I check all my QQ+ to induce bluffs from aggressive opponents, this also balance out times that I have AQ KQ AK.

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NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-02-2016 , 11:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bj84288721
I would disagree with not checking the flop. Its super dry board.We cant really double or triple barrel turn and river when he calls flop. I check all my QQ+ to induce bluffs from aggressive opponents, this also balance out times that I have AQ KQ AK.

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The problem is then what are you representing when you bet the turn? AA, KK QQ? I prefer to lead when I 3 bet preflop. We have 21 big blinds on the flop in the pot. I would happy to take it down right there, especially with a guy who has this high VPIP.

Thanks!
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 12:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokermike36
The problem is then what are you representing when you bet the turn? AA, KK QQ? I prefer to lead when I 3 bet preflop. We have 21 big blinds on the flop in the pot. I would happy to take it down right there, especially with a guy who has this high VPIP.

Thanks!
12 hands isnt enough to justify anything tbh. We can lead the flop then when we add equity to our hand we can bet again. Other that I'm pretty much into check fold mode. Also because of that, we are OP, he can float us on this texture almost 100% of time. It's unlikely we have AJ in our 3betting range against MP opening, so our reasonable hands here are JJ+ and AQ+ and some SC I guess. So if hes good enough to realize it he can float on this board and its so hard for us to bet again on turn when another brick hits. and He can literally bet to fold all our non made hands especially when he has blocker.
Also think about the range when we add equity on the turn, doesn't those hand hit his range too? we are holding AQ the best card we can hit is Q or and A, even though we add a gutshot on the turn with K or T, but those card proly add a gutshot to his range too, or pair him up. So pretty much whether or not we improve on turn then river , we have to keep barreling on turn and river regardless of what kind of equity we add to our hand on the turn and river. This isn't a great profitable spot for our hand.
On the other hand, if we double barrel, we do fold out all his TTs and under pairs that didnt make a set. Thats a plus to our EV, however if we aren't planning on at least double barrel turn then decide on river, I would just check flop and see whats going on with this hand. He will call much tighter compare to his betting range.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 12:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bj84288721
12 hands isnt enough to justify anything tbh. We can lead the flop then when we add equity to our hand we can bet again. Other that I'm pretty much into check fold mode. Also because of that, we are OP, he can float us on this texture almost 100% of time. It's unlikely we have AJ in our 3betting range against MP opening, so our reasonable hands here are JJ+ and AQ+ and some SC I guess. So if hes good enough to realize it he can float on this board and its so hard for us to bet again on turn when another brick hits. and He can literally bet to fold all our non made hands especially when he has blocker.
Also think about the range when we add equity on the turn, doesn't those hand hit his range too? we are holding AQ the best card we can hit is Q or and A, even though we add a gutshot on the turn with K or T, but those card proly add a gutshot to his range too, or pair him up. So pretty much whether or not we improve on turn then river , we have to keep barreling on turn and river regardless of what kind of equity we add to our hand on the turn and river. This isn't a great profitable spot for our hand.
On the other hand, if we double barrel, we do fold out all his TTs and under pairs that didnt make a set. Thats a plus to our EV, however if we aren't planning on at least double barrel turn then decide on river, I would just check flop and see whats going on with this hand. He will call much tighter compare to his betting range.

I 100% disagree that we 3 bet preflop and then not betting this flop. If we are not going to bet this dry flop, then don't 3 bet this hand preflop. Not sure why we can't rep an over pair on the flop and the turn. We 3 bet preflop, so betting flop and the turn likely gets someone out with a modest holding. I would double barrel here and then check the river if he calls the flop and turn.

Thanks!
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 05:58 AM
Cbetting Flop is probably a little better than checking. Not really for value but to get villain to fold two life cards.
When you check flop betting turn is unusual. I would x/c as played and decide on the river.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 08:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bj84288721
12 hands isnt enough to justify anything tbh. We can lead the flop then when we add equity to our hand we can bet again. Other that I'm pretty much into check fold mode. Also because of that, we are OP, he can float us on this texture almost 100% of time. It's unlikely we have AJ in our 3betting range against MP opening, so our reasonable hands here are JJ+ and AQ+ and some SC I guess. So if hes good enough to realize it he can float on this board and its so hard for us to bet again on turn when another brick hits. and He can literally bet to fold all our non made hands especially when he has blocker.
Also think about the range when we add equity on the turn, doesn't those hand hit his range too? we are holding AQ the best card we can hit is Q or and A, even though we add a gutshot on the turn with K or T, but those card proly add a gutshot to his range too, or pair him up. So pretty much whether or not we improve on turn then river , we have to keep barreling on turn and river regardless of what kind of equity we add to our hand on the turn and river. This isn't a great profitable spot for our hand.
On the other hand, if we double barrel, we do fold out all his TTs and under pairs that didnt make a set. Thats a plus to our EV, however if we aren't planning on at least double barrel turn then decide on river, I would just check flop and see whats going on with this hand. He will call much tighter compare to his betting range.
You make me lol. If you are trolling good work otherwise strongly disagree. You are missing value from mid pairs when you check overpairs here while you can bluff two streets and get folds with hands like this.

Passive strategy like what you are sugesting seems meh and you dont need to worry about balance just bet entire range here aslong as your 3b is resonable.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 09:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bj84288721
12 hands isnt enough to justify anything tbh. We can lead the flop then when we add equity to our hand we can bet again. Other that I'm pretty much into check fold mode. Also because of that, we are OP, he can float us on this texture almost 100% of time. It's unlikely we have AJ in our 3betting range against MP opening, so our reasonable hands here are JJ+ and AQ+ and some SC I guess. So if hes good enough to realize it he can float on this board and its so hard for us to bet again on turn when another brick hits. and He can literally bet to fold all our non made hands especially when he has blocker.
Also think about the range when we add equity on the turn, doesn't those hand hit his range too? we are holding AQ the best card we can hit is Q or and A, even though we add a gutshot on the turn with K or T, but those card proly add a gutshot to his range too, or pair him up. So pretty much whether or not we improve on turn then river , we have to keep barreling on turn and river regardless of what kind of equity we add to our hand on the turn and river. This isn't a great profitable spot for our hand.
On the other hand, if we double barrel, we do fold out all his TTs and under pairs that didnt make a set. Thats a plus to our EV, however if we aren't planning on at least double barrel turn then decide on river, I would just check flop and see whats going on with this hand. He will call much tighter compare to his betting range.
Another hand you are folding what a surprise. It's not hard to bet the turn because we are repping the same thing we repped when we 3 bet the preflop and bet the flop an OVERPAIR!!!!

I can't imagine you ever win because it seems that every time you get to the river, you find some reason to fold.

Thanks!
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 11:28 AM
Flop check OK. Turn bet would be OK against full stack, but the SPR is too low here...you're getting bad odds (especially with a paired board). I prefer a check OTT.

AP fold riv.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 11:41 AM
I mean it's tough. On second thought, turn bet is OK, you do have a lot of equity and are probably indeed "ahead of his crap". I don't know, these kinds of SPRs usually have me in either passive mode or stack-off mode. Obviously, we're not looking to stack off...so I would personally gravitate toward a check unless I know villain folds a lot OTT.
NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote
06-03-2016 , 11:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pokermike36
Another hand you are folding what a surprise. It's not hard to bet the turn because we are repping the same thing we repped when we 3 bet the preflop and bet the flop an OVERPAIR!!!!

I can't imagine you ever win because it seems that every time you get to the river, you find some reason to fold.

Thanks!
Aperently your client doesnt have a fold button. What hand do we have c flop bet turn and cc river that beats villains range here?
Before you evrn comment on my thought process I said this hand needs to be played double/triple barreled or doesnt barrel at all.
Kee calling all hands you get yo river with. Im sure you have a fantastic wsd.

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NL10 - AQs in sucky spot Quote

      
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