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nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove?

10-19-2014 , 07:04 PM
villain was 25/20 with a high fold to 3bet over decent sample. Not sure exactly is 3betting hands like this is good or not I do not do it all the time and am experimenting.


SB: $5.55 (55.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $11.13 (111.3 bb)
UTG: $10.87 (108.7 bb)
MP: $10 (100 bb)
CO: $2.20 (22 bb)
BTN: $11.91 (119.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 7
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.25, SB folds, Hero raises to $0.80, BTN calls $0.55

Flop: ($1.65) 6 A 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.02, BTN raises to $2.04, hero?

Now for me this min raise could possibly be a bluff. Or at least a hand that he will fold to a shove with? I need some help with the math here, what you think his range is, how often he will fold etc?

Betting like $9 to win $5 I think sound very tempting considering I think there is a chance he may fold, with still having good outs if he calls. +ev shove?
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-19-2014 , 09:57 PM
If villian folds alot to 3 bets 80%+ then 57s is fine, provided your not doing it every time.. When he folds alot though this means his range is tight and that in theory he shouldn't fold that much on the flop, because his getting there with strong hands, so in answering your question I think he has sets and Ak here really often and very few bluffs if any... This is a general assumption based on my experience, I have seen people do ******ed stuff and raise qj here, in general though I think his range is really strong and we should be super happy just calling flop raise...

One more point he folds alot to 3 bets because he thinks you 3 bet strong hands right?? Therefore on the flop when he raises he thinks you have a strong range so he won't want to bluff you, instead his trying to value own you when you have aq-Ak. At least that's what I think
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-19-2014 , 11:22 PM
Shoving is probably doable. He's giving you pretty good odds to chase the turn card so I'd probably just call.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-19-2014 , 11:28 PM
I've caught people doing this and folding but I don't think it's often enough and your hand has enough equity to just call and see a turn. And then you can consider bluffing river if he checks back. Really hard for him to barrel the turn when we call.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-19-2014 , 11:46 PM
Yeah flat, you can stab river really small if he gives up and you whiff.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 12:02 AM
Cant be +EV to shove here.

Why not just fold this hand preflop lol.

Do you really want to play a 3b pot with 57s out of position... lol
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 12:11 AM
Pre is fine since villain has a folding button.

Btw OP, I would bet slightly smaller OTF
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 12:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
Pre is fine since villain has a folding button.

Btw OP, I would bet slightly smaller OTF
Yeah this, pre is fine/standard.

Think it's a trivial call otf. We can turn spades too which is fun.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 01:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
Pre is fine since villain has a folding button.

Btw OP, I would bet slightly smaller OTF
In 10NL I just think there's so many spots to value town opponents that getting in a huge 3b pot and semi bluffing our whole stack is really not needed. I would way rather do this if for example villain was in CO and we 3b this 57s from the button..

I feel like so many hands I read here on the forums people get themselves in super marginal spots that are just not needed.

As played I probably call here then check/fold turn on a blank. Reason being I think villain would min-raise like this with hands like 99-KK and when we call villain would check behind OTT so we'll get 2 free cards.. And I think our straight draw is relatively masked and a backdoor flush would be even more masked.

This is a tough spot though for sure.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 01:22 AM
Hmm, I disagree with basically everything in your post, esp the part about this being a tough spot.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nirwanda
Hmm, I disagree with basically everything in your post, esp the part about this being a tough spot.
What do you mean... I said as played I would call on the flop... Literally exactly what you said.

Idk how 3b'ing 57s in 10NL can possibly be so profitable that it's worth the variance and headaches that it gives you. It's so easy to play super ABC aggro and just value bet 3 streets when you have a hand and are in position at these micros that these high variance situations, in my opinion arent worth it.

As we move up to somewhere around 50NL where opponents ranges are really wide on the button and we want to merge our hand ranges then plays like these make a lot of sense, but at the micros I dont see the value.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 01:38 AM
Pre seems pretty standard if villains is able to fold against 3bets. You don't even need him to fold 80% ... I'd guess >55% f23b combined with a low 4bet% is enough to make this a profitable 3bet.

As played, bet $0.80 OTF, call his raise, bluff him OTR in case he checks behind turns.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:00 AM
no one ever reads my post
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anaconda disease
no one ever reads my post
You gotta say something controversial like me
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by anaconda disease
no one ever reads my post
I've read it, but disagree with what you wrote.
Quote:
If villian folds alot to 3 bets 80%+ then 57s is fine, provided your not doing it every time.
1.) You don't need him to fold that often to be able to 3bet 57s here.
2.) In case he fold 80%+, I'd recommed 3betting 57s every single time. Don't 3bet complete trash (like Q4o or 75o) every single time though.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:07 AM
Easy call on the flop and continuing on 3,8, or spade turn.

Not in love with the 3bet but if he's folding way too much then it's OK. Happier abusing people with high F23B with blocker type hands (Q5s etc) - mainly because if we start 3betting everything they're going to notice at some point so this reduces our 3bet range slightly along with blocking some of their continuing hands.

Some of the posts in this thread are pretty terrible lol
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YourVeryBestEnemy
I've read it, but disagree with what you wrote.


1.) You don't need him to fold that often to be able to 3bet 57s here.
2.) In case he fold 80%+, I'd recommed 3betting 57s every single time. Don't 3bet complete trash (like Q4o or 75o) every single time though.
The problem isnt whether the 3bet itself is "profitable." If he folds to 80% of 3bets but when he calls your 3bet you stack off with a OESD and 35% equity versus something like AQ then the play is not profitable.

Not to mention the potential tilt a hand like this can put you in.

Theres no reason to get in this marginal of a spot in 10NL, in my humble opinion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by g3orgeluc4s
Easy call on the flop and continuing on 3,8, or spade turn.

Not in love with the 3bet but if he's folding way too much then it's OK. Happier abusing people with high F23B with blocker type hands (Q5s etc) - mainly because if we start 3betting everything they're going to notice at some point so this reduces our 3bet range slightly along with blocking some of their continuing hands.

Some of the posts in this thread are pretty terrible lol
Elaborate on the bad posts please.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoshKC
The problem isnt whether the 3bet itself is "profitable." If he folds to 80% of 3bets but when he calls your 3bet you stack off with a OESD and 35% equity versus something like AQ then the play is not profitable.

Not to mention the potential tilt a hand like this can put you in.

Theres no reason to get in this marginal of a spot in 10NL, in my humble opinion.
When I say "the 3bet is profitable", this already includes all possible postflop scenarios like beeing coolered. Profitable means +EV on average including postflop.

However, in case you intend to misplay most scenarios postflop and spew your stacks away, then 3betting 57s might not be your best option.

Imo avoiding "difficult" or "tough" spots isn't the way poker should be approached. Get better, move up, make more $$
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YourVeryBestEnemy
When I say "the 3bet is profitable", this already includes all possible postflop scenarios like beeing coolered. Profitable means +EV on average including postflop.

However, in case you intend to misplay most scenarios postflop and spew your stacks away, then 3betting 57s might not be your best option.

Imo avoiding "difficult" or "tough" spots isn't the way poker should be approached. Get better, move up, make more $$
I'm not saying avoid difficult or tough spots. BUT 10NL is so ridiculously easy getting in spots where you might have a tiny bit of +EV isnt worth it. There's so many other exploitable spots in these games.

Do you really think this hand is that +EV? What kind of fold equity do we have because when we get called here we have 35% equity at best...

EDIT: These spots are how I crush these games. Because I play super tight ABC and people will randomly shove draws like this into me when I have hands like AK, AQ, etc here.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 02:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoshKC
I'm not saying avoid difficult or tough spots. BUT 10NL is so ridiculously easy getting in spots where you might have a tiny bit of +EV isnt worth it. There's so many other exploitable spots in these games.
This all depends on what your goals are.

If you want to make $3.5 per hour at NL10 for the rest of your life, then go the easy way and avoid tough spots.

However, if your goal is to become better, move up and make $35 per hour at NL100+ or even $350+ per hour at highstakes, then you shouln't make a habit of avoiding all marginal spots.

The main purpose of playing marginal spots is to become a better player, not to making that additional $0.01.

Quote:
Do you really think this hand is that +EV? What kind of fold equity do we have because when we get called here we have 35% equity at best...
We need some fold equity (I'd guess >~55%) for sure but we have the appropriate read on villain: "villain was 25/20 with a high fold to 3bet over decent sample". As you said, 3betting 57s BB vs BTN might be marginal but I'm pretty sure it is +EV given our read and getting into tough spots makes us a better player.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 03:44 AM
From past experiences people in 10nl fold too much to 3bets

If you don't have 57s in your 3bet range then what type of hands are you 3betting?

You shouldn't be too worried about people calling/folding too much but rather opponents who defend the perfect amount
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 10:34 AM
Any spot that's +ev is by definition "worth it". This isn't a difficult spot though.

Quote:
When I say "the 3bet is profitable", this already includes all possible postflop scenarios like beeing coolered. Profitable means +EV on average including postflop.
This isn't usually what people mean. If villain folds to enough 3-bets then we can auto-profit on 3-betting any two cards and check/folding every flop when he calls.

Quote:
The problem isnt whether the 3bet itself is "profitable." If he folds to 80% of 3bets but when he calls your 3bet you stack off with a OESD and 35% equity versus something like AQ then the play is not profitable.
We aren't just auto-stacking off with 35% equity. We 3-bet a pure bluff (since we're never ahead when he calls) but pick a hand that can flop equity. When we do flop equity we then have a whole range of options about bluffing or just calling for pot odd/implied odds, like now.

This spot isn't going to be tough if you know how to play post-flop. Which you can only really learn through analysis and experience.
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 12:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lvr
From past experiences people in 10nl fold too much to 3bets
My database actually says they're calling 3bets on average 60%, 4betting 10% and folding only around 30%..
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote
10-20-2014 , 07:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by YourVeryBestEnemy

1.) You don't need him to fold that often to be able to 3bet 57s here.
2.) In case he fold 80%+, I'd recommed 3betting 57s every single time. Don't 3bet complete trash (like Q4o or 75o) every single time though.
i think i did a semi bad job of explaining what i mean, 80% was just a number i threw out there as an example and clearly is not an exact number. i understand how to calculate how often we need villain to fold to make an instant profit on our 3 bet. Simple bluff odds....

the point i dont think you understood was when i said we shouldnt 3 bet 75s every time even against a guy who folds 80%.. remember stats are a long term collection of data indicating villians likely tendancies versus the whole population of players. I still stand by this statement because of gameflow and image..

Even if someone folds 80%, if i 3 bet them 3-4 times in short period pick up the 75s im likely not going to 3 bet this because villain will be over my **** or atleast wont give me enough credit. so on this 4-5th 3 bet his only folding 40-50% of time because his tightened up and wants to fold less to 3 bets.. Most the value from 3 betting a hand like this at micros against this kind of player is coming from them folding to much preflop.. post flop there range is generally strong so we don't actually pick up that many pots.. making the whole 3 bet of 57s far less profitable...

anyway i like this discussion
nl10 - 3bet pot with oesd, semi bluff shove? Quote

      
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