i think i played this bad

i`m opening this UTG cause of the big fish in the blinds

villain fold to cbet is 45%, i check OTT because he has a high bet vs missed cb but i`m a bit puzzled OTR, he has 1.67 AF on the river

how is my line ?


Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP: $17.98 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1.4, Hands: 81
CO: $25.80 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 5, AF: 4.1, Hands: 1435
BTN: $25.00 - VPIP: 18, PFR: 12, 3B: 3, AF: 2.0, Hands: 1151
SB: $26.49 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 13, AF: 1.9, Hands: 327
BB: $12.40 - VPIP: 58, PFR: 22, 3B: 13, AF: 0.6, Hands: 50
Hero (UTG): $52.13 -

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with 8 A
Hero raises to $0.75, 1 fold, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($1.85) 3 4 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.32, CO calls $1.32

Turn: ($4.49) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.80, Hero calls $2.80

River: ($10.09) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $6.80

When villain bets the turn after floating the flop, does he give up on the river or does he continue betting? You should know this after 1400 hands.

cawlllll

nh if you called.

I think this is about his range on river if he bets, you have 80% vs this if he always floats bet/bet. (Didn't include 99 TT, i think he'd check those behind).

88-22,AQs-AJs,AQo-AJo

You have to be right 23~% of the time, so i think it's a good spot to call him here

Edit: ofc he doesn't always float bet bet, but he'll do it sometimes

so why would he bet 55-77 if he isnt betting 99-TT?

^^He should prob be checking back 77-55 and if he's good he'll bet TT-99 for value. It's still a call since he can have other random overcard combos, 65s, etc. He might even be betting a worse 8 for value.

nah i'm betting 55-77 there as a bluff, since op's hand pretty much face up, but you're right he'll probably put op on 89~ and bet 99-tt


which worse 8's could he have? is he calling utg raises with 89s and playing them this fast? and valuebetting them? putting op on what?
and i don't think he'll have 65s there alot, even if he has it ever --> only 4 combo's

i think you played it well

river is close but i call

I would call, but I'm a calling station.

It really comes to it how he sees us - if we have high flop cbet and low turn cbet, then it's good spot for him to float. He really can't have too many value hands here and I doubt that average 25NL reg vbets 99 here.

100% this.