this is a spot that's been giving me some trouble lately. I feel like my line here is so weak but I really don't feel like I have any FE raising. not even sure if i'll get paid if i hit my hand anyway. the only thing that feels weaker than xc is xf tho. i had a sizing tell on this opponent and put him on a big pair so that influenced me to play this hand passively (might consider 3betting pre or xr flop against someone else's open OTB) because i'm not in the business of trying to muscle people off of premium hands. Anyway, i'm having trouble getting the hand history from HEM so i'm just going to type it out, hope you don't mind.

hero $9.90
v $11.71

hero in BB with AJ
utg limps co limps
but opens to .55
sb folds
hero calls
limpers fold

flop 1.28
268
h checks
v bets pot 1.35
h calls

turn 3.83
10
h checks v bets 3/4 pot 3.03
h calls

river 9.55
9
check check

If you feel your reads are correct in this spot, why are you calling? You aren't getting odds on the flop even if he gives you a free river, and if you can't fold him with a raise, you need to fold. Without reads, I'm raising pre. As played, and again without reads, I'm raising flop instead and folding to a 3b.

If you raise flop, you're not folding to a 3-bet. You shouldn't, anyways.

As for the hand I don't mind it because the Ace is probably an out. This seems like the type of opponent you'd need to bet into when you hit (and I hate doing that ****) to make some money.

If we xminraise flop and he flats are we shoving any turn? Leaves us with less than a PSB. Feels like a pretty high variance way to play the hand.

Any thoughts on folding pre? I don't think I ever have his hand dominated for this open size . At best I'm flipping. Folding just feels so nitty and everything else just kind of sucks.

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My bad on folding to 3b on flop, forgot about Vs ridiculous sizing. I'm probably just folding flop as played, but would consider shoving depending on whether he's thrown a psb in on this type of texture more than once before.


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Don't do this.

Don't do this either.

So just call down like I did? xr flop shove turn? what is the best line

I think it's close enough to warrant some reasoning rather than a quick dismissal. We have 15 outs best case, 32% to hit on turn. This excludes when v has JJ+, which will hurt if a jack comes. We need to be good on the turn a third of the time if he's going to barrel, and I don't think population is betting pot with worse than AJ and slowing down on turn.

Think it's fairly obvious, we have too much equity to fold the flop.

When facing a reasonable bet, sure. Are you calling an open shove on this flop?

Against some random villain? Folding.

You suggested folding when facing a pot sized bet, though.

And then explained why the odds we're taking are either close or not in our favor when facing that sizing. I'm calling between 1/2 and 3/4 pot, and considering raising when they bet less than 1/2 pot.

Villain likely has a tighter range and we need more equity to call profitably.

That's what I'm saying? I think there's a disconnect here

I'm talking about a shove, you're talking about a pot-sized bet. Pretty clear call when facing a pot-sized bet.

We're getting 2:1 pot odds on a hand with about 2:1 equity (assuming we're behind), so it's about breakeven assuming we don't get a free river. Throw in the times when J or A aren't outs and cause us to lose even more, and I think it's a close fold against population.

With reads, we can definitely work in calls. If V overbluffs this spot and/or doesn't have medium strength hands in his betting range, it's an easy call. I just don't think it's as clear cut as you made it seem initially.

Throw in the amount of times we're ahead, make money when we hit, or he hits a worse flush, and on different boards we'll pick up a straight draw. Gotta not just look at the cons of the situation. There are pros and they are worth mentioning.

You're making the mistake of not considering the entirety of villain's possible range here. Do some calculations with an equity calculator.

If you're folding this at a high frequency vs unknowns you're throwing away EV.

The times we're ahead: do we call down on later streets with ace high? Otherwise we can't count those unless we know villain is checking twice after we call.

Implied odds when we hit: Due to how big the flop bet is this isn't as big of a factor, and we'll have barely anything left behind after another big bet on the turn so we'll have to fold if we don't hit.

My issue isn't with raw equity, but whether we can realize it or not. We're OOP without a made hand facing a big bet, and we'll likely face continuing pressure. Additionally, if the heart comes it can be hard to get paid on this board without a cooler.


Again, I'm not saying this is a clear fold. I agree with the principles behind the arguments both of you are making, I just think it's close due to the sizing and situation. If we're in position, easy call. If the bet is slightly smaller or we have a read, call/shove.

We have so much equity vs what an unknown 10nl villain's likely range is that we should be able to realize a considerable percentage of it, generally more than the ~33% needed to call the flop.

So you're suggesting we only continue in this spot with a made hand? This is literally one of the best non-made hands we could have in this scenario.

Sure, that's kind of annoying, but hardly a reason to consider folding.

Kind of just seems like you're arguing for the sake of arguing.

I love how you just focus on the negative and ignore things to fit your narrative on this battle that you're completely wrong on.

We can't prove the first thing. We can in fact have the best hand. We can reach showdown and win UI. Sorry.

It's possible to hit on the turn which you completely ignore. I'm with you on the "our pairs might not be good" so I reduce my outs from 15 to 12. We have to make up so little otr to break even and you can do the math on that if you'd like. $4.97 isn't what I'd call "barely anything left behind on the river", either.

Also,
You have this completely backwards. You should be more likely call smaller bets and raise larger ones. I'll let you figure out why since I'm under the assumption you're just being contrarian and no amount of math or reasoning will let you cross over to it's ok to call in this spot, so I'm just done replying to this topic.

quick edit:
Funny how me and WM both thought this...

Never tried arguing, just continued to clarify or ask for reasoning in my posts. My bad if I came off as argumentative, but wm brushed off my explanations a few times ("don't do this") and I was just asking for actual reasons.

We should have enough combo draws, sets, pairs+draws to continue with facing this bet sizing to fold here without overfolding. Besides, we shouldn't have too many AJs in our BB preflop calling range anyways.

I was factoring in a big turn bet when discussing remaining stacks, which I feel like we'll be seeing a large percentage of the time after this flop bet. We aren't deep enough to reliably factor in full implied odds on river unless we know we're getting there for free/cheap. Just saying it's reduced in the situation, not eliminated.

As to the second piece, I said I'd consider. My opinion is that a small bet at these stakes on flop is a sign of weakness, and we'll rarely be 3b if we raise. If I'm raising here, it's for value. That was a side point though, and not really relevant to the main point being discussed.