Heh, I just applied some filters and the graph difference in hands where I raised pf and hands where I didn't (excluding those where I check from BB) is just amazing.

Playing hands where I'm not the aggressor definitely seems to be my biggest leak right now.

PFR:


NonPFR:

Pretty sure you're using the filters incorrectly. Just doing non-pfr means you're including hands you just fold, i.e. hands in blinds you don't play. This yields a huge loss. Make it pfr = false, vpip = true, and I think you should be about breakeven over a big enough sample. (Though maybe some better players than me could mention it if their slope is positive with these filters over an appreciable sample.)

This is a really good thread, thanks for posting the link! Helped me realise a good few leaks after reading it

This post interested me so I had a look (I have been looking at a lot of filters where I'm calling bets and getting killed the last couple days- it's helping lol)

Oddly enough, I've only done it 1600 times in the last 60k hands and am winning 40bb/100... more then half of what I win in pots that I raised preflop. I got a little creative and filtered for in position/ out of position... in position it was at 65 per 100 and OOP it was 22 per 100... and I am ashamed to say that the sample was almost evenly divided.


I don't think this really tells me anything except that I do a lot better then I ever would have thought when I cold call preflop raises, and that i shouldn't feel as guilty as I usually do (I always thought I was burning money in those spots, but still did it from time to time anyway lol) ... also that there is lots of information in PT if you think to look for it lol.

Yeah, I'm curious about this too.

I mean, if the loose players call you're most likely going to see a flop that's not much better for 66 than it would have been if you opened 22.

Now, I totally get the reason for limping behind (and to be honest I pretty much do it all the time), I just feel like being a donk at the moment.

If you open large to isolate (6 or 7bb), ideally the shorty just shoves and the other limper folds. Then there's 12 + 2.5 + maybe 6 of your blinds in the pot dead, so 20.5bb. You'll have to call 6bb to win 20.5 and you'll have the equity.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.723% 46.13% 00.59% 2469236256 31713960.00 { 22 }
Hand 1: 53.277% 52.68% 00.59% 2819998128 31713960.00 { 22+, A4s+, K4s+, Q4s+, JTs, A4o+, K4o+, Q4o+, JTo }

So, maybe it's only +EV as long as you know the passive guys won't come along?

Also, with regards to risking 6 or 7bb to win 3.5bb, isn't that the same ratio as stealing for 3bb to win 1.5bb? Wouldn't raising bigger to scoop up all the dead money preflop without having to rely on 22 to actually hit to be good be a better option?

Please blow me out of the water if my thinking is really off.

I specifically excluded BB hands where I got a free check, but you're right in that my filter may not have been optimal. I'll have another go at it tonight when I get home.

Just finished reading the whole thread. Thanks for doing this Verneer. You explain your thought process really well and I think this is what's missing from the usual HH threads. People just reply with 'call ldo' without giving any insight to why one action is better than the other. It's really hard to learn if people only give you the answer but don't explain how they got it

Anyway great job and lets keep this thread going.

Rush Poker: Downswing

I feel like I'm doing some fundamental things wrong in this game. I ran pretty hot early but currently dropped 10 BI's since I started.



Thus my bankroll sits at $430 from its high point of about $530. Not having any reads is really killing me. I am sure there is tons of bad play there as well, but mostly because I just am not sure what to do in so many spots vs. unknowns.

I would like to continue playing there because I am confident that the game is very profitable - I just haven't found a way to tap into that yet.

Vithel showed in uNL BBV that it's profitable to play the same as you normally do. From his stats I don't think he raises anymore / less than normal.

I can't comment on his cbet stats but some have suggested not cbetting without a hand.

I believe you can make a greater profit by playing very aggro postflop and doing a lot of 3betting / squeezing preflop but my sample size is lolsmall

I donked off my loose change in a rush. Next time i play im thinking just give every1 a range of AA.KK and working backwards it just feel like a total nitfest. And y not, nits are nits, fish playing it like slots are now nits, TAGs are thinking f it more hands il just nit it up and RB whor.

LAGish pre, 5/8ths pot cbet flop 90%, turn river Snit (thats my guess anyway)

But whateva i played 120 hands

The HUD config post/guide is already adding to my WR thx

Ok here's my graph of vpip / not aggressor / not free look from BB:


And here's the same vpip / not aggressor including free look from BB:


Not as bad as my previous graph, but still pretty horrible.

do you distinguish between a villain folding oop and ip with the turn and flop cbet stats?

^^ to the above

I think using stats to determine whether to double barrel or not is a bit overrated especially over small sample sizes. by default you should be using board texture and perceived equity + actual equity vs. villain's range and perhaps later you can start double barreling in unconventional spots when villain is obv. super exploitable. generally when you're OOP it's still just best to double barrel when A) you have a strong 8+ out draw B) when a scarecard falls and C) when you have a hand obv.

the only difference when you are IP is that you can check back some draws with showdown value otherwise the same rules apply.

What are the hands you are losing the most money with?

That's more like it...