So, having hit my all time low, 35k breakeven at 25NL (A level I used to beat for 9bb/100 over 100k hands) and a 20 BI downswing at 50NL over 30k hands(lol downswing at 50NL you have leaks)...I decided, let's go through my database and find those leaks.

So after looking at my post flop game I decided to check out my pre-flop game, you know the solved aspect and started thinking about 4-bet/calling/shoving ranges at 50NL and below came to the realization, unless the guy is a spewtard or spazzing out due to history, that range is QQ+/AK.

So obviously, what does this mean? Well...the super standard 2+2 line with hands like QQ/AK is to 4-bet get it in, because you can't 3-bet QQ/AK and fold to a 4-bet because that's turning it into a bluff blah blah blah...dead money blah blah blah. So let's look at the facts/samples.

Those hands against a typical 4-bet range compete like this:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.197% 46.17% 14.03% 403173348 122508618.00 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.803% 25.77% 14.03% 225084456 122508618.00 { QQ, AKs, AKo }

But wait moe, you can't assign people those ranges they're wider, fair enough, let's see what our results look like....

I asked some 25NL/50NL regs with at least 50k hands to give me their graphs with the following filters:

AKs/AKo/QQ, all in pre-flop true.

So we get these results...









And my results where I'm way above EV showing I'm winning my fair share of AK AIPF that will eventually catch up with me.



But wait...AK is a flip v.s QQ and you have blockers to AA/KK so it's okay to flip, actually it's not a flip.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.944% 43.73% 00.21% 71886264 349212.00 { AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 56.056% 55.84% 00.21% 91796496 349212.00 { QQ }

That's a 12% edge, it's not a flip, it will eventually catch up to you.

So what does this mean to me...

-> AK/QQ AIPF without a strong read is typically going to be a losing play or breakeven if you run good.

-> AK v.s QQ is not a flip, even though every one is super happy/standard to get it in pre at 50NL and below, but thing is people's ranges for stacking off pre is not as wide as the videos we see in 400NL Card runner videos, there are no leveling wars, people are pre-flop nits.

-> Yes there are exceptions, people do monkey off sometimes, but it's so little of the time (I've looked through my history and the majority of the time when I stacked off pre, they showed me QQ+/AK). Even if they do spazz out with 55 now it's just a flip with AK, you're not +EV, you're making a breakeven play and not realizing your post flop edge.

So what can we do about this?

-> Flat more 3-bets IP instead of 4-bet getting it in with AK/QQ, play post flop poker
-> Not auto 3-bet every one with AK/QQ readless when they open in EP
-> Realizing we can 3-bet and then fold to the 4-bet v.s some villains, because they will call with worse and only 4-bet a tight range.

The solid points for 4-bet getting it in v.s everyone with AK/QQ is that you balance your 4-betting range (lol balancing at micros ) and sometimes people do 3-bet/4-bet light and you put them in their place.

Regardless....since I don't have the best solution I'm going to keep doing what I'm doing, just wanted to open this to discussion.

Is stacking off with AK/QQ pre-flop at 50NL and below profitable? From the results I clearly see it is breakeven/losing play, but we keep making it.

So I'd like others to go through their DB and post their results.

One last note, I have been getting DESTROYED past 2 months, and I've been getting sweated for past 20k hands, I don't play alone now as all confidence is gone so if you're a winning 50NL/25NL reg and want to trade sessions pm me. It's nice being told you play well and just running bad while also plugging some leaks.

Thanks for reading.

<-- pre-flop nit ldo.

nice interesting post

I agree, a valuable lesson I'm finally starting to learn is its not the worst thing to A) flat w/ one of these hands facing an EP 4X from an unknown for example, or B) 3B/Folding after typically putting in only about 10-12% of my stack (meaning I'm only getting 1.27:1, meaning I need 45% equity against an unknowns 4bet AI range, and typically it will be very narrow as stated like QQ+,AK+, and all we have is 40% equity against that range = not a horrendous fold).

i usually only try to get it in with AK vs. short stack droolers or just droolers in general when i know i'm crushing their range.. because i'm comfy with it.. they'll show up with dream hands for me like KJ/KT/K9/all sorts of crazy queen rags/ace rags etc. etc.

nice post though.. i definitely like flatting IP with ak vs normal people

You really think pre flop is the reason why your break even/losing? Nice post and all that it makes sense. But this is the type of theory I'd expect to see in the MTT section not cash. I would say if your losing money in cash games you really need to focus on your post flop game instead.


I mean I'm probaly wrong but playing mainly HU and 6 max games I've never had a problem pre flop. I've never even really paid any attention to it either.

Villain's 3bet required to BE vs QQ+/AK:

0 = (x-.026)*14.5 + .026*(.4*104.5 - .6*97)
x = 5.5%

Villain 4betting is obviously a totally different story. There isn't much to talk about here just know your villains and stop running bad.

i was just telling my buddy the other day that the quickest way to tell a nit at a table is hes NOT bitching about losing "flips", but that hes losing "55-45's"....and stuff like that. Basically if u are so concerned about those few small % u are probably too weak tight anyways and thats the real leak.

Anything in that range of 10ish% or in this case 12% or w/e, its a flip get it in.

Great post, Moe.

This is definitely something I've been thinking about myself. When I first started out, I played 5nl over at Pokerstars. AIPF ranges for regs consisted of two hands: AA and KK. If you stacked off with anything else you were laughed at.

Since I've transitioned over to 25nl at Full Tilt, AK has been the auto-stack off because that's what we've been told to do, but lately I've been flatting this a lot more pre against specific opponents and in specific situations. Tbh, I really don't even like 3betting AK unless it's against a player with a wide range for their position. Playing AK postflop in a 3bet pot is becoming highly unprofitable as that is first hand regs and fish alike put you on, so you're going to be c/f'ing 66% of flops when they don't contain an A or K and the times that you do flop a pair, you're unlikely to get any action unless your opponent has you beat.

This is not to say that there aren't players that you can't 3bet AK profitably against. It's just that in my personal experience AK has yielded some unfavorable results.

Not only is AK difficult to play in 3bet pots, but a trend that I've seen happening a lot lately is fish stacking off with low to mid PP's "putting you on AK". Now obviously this is a losing play for them in the long-run because they're going to run into our higher PP's, but for us regs they are making it unprofitable to stack off with AK because we're constantly getting in as 44% dogs. The variance caused by stacking off with AK is just not worth the trouble imo.

With all that in mind, versus specific regs (and fish as well) who are particularly aggressive preflop with 3betting and 4betting, AK becomes a mandatory stack off, but AK for me has gone from a auto stack-off to a very read specific stack-off at the micros where the average 3bet% (and 4bet% for that matter) is a considerably less than that of SS and above.

This. I'd much rather see a flop as my edge post is much greater than it is in preflop shoving matches.

This is between 100NL and 50NL 6m for this year so far.



These hands are sorta tough/confusing to play pre (for some) in that your options are 4-bet, get it in, and see all 5 cards, or flat the 3-bet and attempt to play postflop. The problem with flatting the 3-bet and attempting to play post flop is that you're going to be up against a super wide range (usually), unless the dude is only 3-betting 3% or something, and when you do miss the flop w/AK or flop comes Axx w/QQ, how good enough are you to make money in those spots? Probably not very, those are tough spots to play in, hence, why we just get it in pre by 4b/calling, and not attempt to play a guessing game post flop.

When deciding whether or not you should flat a 3b or 4b QQ/AK, you need to evaluate who is 3-betting you, where you opened from, and where they're 3-betting you from. If you open UTG, and a 17/14 3-bets you from LP, he's not doing it light. Also, if a thinking LAG (with a 12% 3b) 3bets your UTG raise from the button, he's not doing it with all 12% of his 3-bet range, it's more than likely 3% of that range which is JJ+, and AK. Now, if you have been getting into 3betting wars, and have history, that changes everything. My point is, consider who the 3-bet is coming from, where it's coming from, and your position relative to the 3-bettor.

^ with regards to that above, I'm WAY more inclined to 4b when I'm OOP because I hate playing OOP, and I'd much rather see all 5 cards with AK, as well as not have to c/f and AKx flop w/QQ or c-bet and get shoved on. Position is super important in 3b/4b pots. SUPER IMPORTANT.

If you're playing against a nit, and he 3-bets you from say the BB, and you have QQ, go ahead and flat, and see a flop. Nits typically aren't going to c-bet many flops OOP in 3b pots w/o the goods. So, if he checks an Axx flop, you can check behind, and take down the pot like 95% of time on the turn if he checks to you again. Same goes for if the flop is like 83T, nit checks the flop OOP, you bet 1/2 pot, he may spazz shove AK. This is all situational, player dependant, etc etc. However, if the dude has a frequent 3b percentage higher than 8, 4b/calling QQ and AK is never bad, and usually the best option. You'd be surprised how many aggro 3-bettors snap 5-bet AT-AQ when you size your 4b smallish. (i.e. you raise 3bb pre, he makes it 11bb, you make it 22-25bb)

I pretty much always get QQ/AK aipf unless the dude is a nit.

Sorry to hear you're running bad. I have about 50K hands total of 10NL-50NL, and while I also have a slightly -EV when all-in pf w/QQ, AK, I looked at some individual hands and saw Villains with A9s, AT, AJ, and KQ. Not to mention that the last two times I went all-in with KK pf, Villain had TT. So when you're thinking of making a 4-bet with QQ or AK, between FE and retard equity, I think the play itself is still +EV. I agree however with flatting more IP. Also, if Villain's 3-bet or 4-bet is unusually large and I believe I have no FE, I am more apt to consider folding.

it is ok to flat AK,QQ PF to nits from EP

anywhere in CO,BTN SB,BB situations i 4bet call them


also u gain a lot of money from non SD winnings that u probably don't realize wen they fold.

I don't really know where to start, most of the things I didn't quote were flawed thinking, but i'll just start here and it will address those issues.

Basically, the flip thing, yeah in terms of a pure equity standpoint we aren't flipping, except we're not playing with just equity, we're playing with money too, by the time we have to make the decision to go all in or not, there is often a lot of money in the pot, and if there is any bit of bluff in your opponents range, than a lot of that money can be considered dead and it makes up for the equity difference, which is what makes the entire hand essentially a flip.

If they're not bluffy at all, than just don't get it in vs them, I 3b/fold all day with hands like TT-QQ when I know that people can call me with worse hands but when they 4b i'm crushed. Unless you have specific reads knowing they're very tight when 3b, than just don't worry about it, most people are bad, most people can put it in too light, and you can't argue with equity/dead money.

The reason we wan't to have a solid get in range is so when appropriate (and yes it can even be at micro stakes), usually vs aggressive regulars, you can 4b bluff, which can often get an aggressive 3bettor off your back and allow you to maintain an image that is likely to get you paid later.

Don't start calling 3bets in position with a hand like AK. Just get it in preflop, it plays much worse on the flop vs other peoples ranges, the A or K always slows people down especially with pairs lower than the K that have little or no chance to improve.

Calling with QQ can be fine given how easy it is to play on the flop, but I don't see why you would want to, you're not really gaining any value on anything, I mean, you get stacked by AK less often, but you also win less from whiffed AK, it just seems like a hassle not worth worrying over though.

I can think of more ways to convince you if this isn't enough.

This is true, however, you must realize that people fight for the money in 3b pots. It's a hell of a lot easier to out play a dude when it's a single raised pot where pot-to-stack ratios are higher, and fold equity is substantial. This is the beauty of 3-betting lighter, and defending lighter as stacks get deeper.

The combination of the pot being 3bet, 20-25bbs in the middle, and smaller stacks (~85-90bbs) make it more difficult to effectively outplay someone post flop.

I'd really like to see someone with a huge sample do the filter (AK/QQ AIPF true) and show a graph that is clearly positive. MDoranD?



So far everyone has repeated common knowledge regarding 3betting and 4betting theory but no one has really covered what the implication of these equity charts show.

Also, the fact that these QQ/AK vs QQ+ scenarios don't happen very often should make you more inclined to analyze other parts of your game, namely postflop, as that's where you're probably losing the most money.

I know it's fun to look at, but don't invest too much stock in trying to figure out whether or not you should flat or 4b AK/QQ as a default (it's not possible). Just keep 4-betting these hands against aggro 3-bettors, vary your play against the tighter players, and put more time into working on your post flop game ---> that's where the money is to be made.