Villian is playing 25/19/6.5/2.0
36/54/59(WTSD/W$WSF/W$WSD)
fcb/fold to cbet raise:68%/25%
tcb:57%

Villian has been pretty straight forward with no notes of getting too out of line or crazy. Is this fold too nitty?

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 4 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12599932

CO: $10.72 (107.2 bb)
BTN: $10.37 (103.7 bb)
SB: $8.25 (82.5 bb)
Hero (BB): $10.96 (109.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T J
CO folds, BTN raises to $0.35, SB folds, Hero calls $0.25

Flop: ($0.75) Q Q 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.50, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($1.75) J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.55, Hero calls $1.55

River: ($4.85) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $3.55, Hero...

3bet preflop or else just fold.

X/r flop, your draw isn't that great on this paired board and he should be cbetting this flop very wide.

Fold the turn.

I'd probably fold the river...

The pre call is the biggest mistake in this hand, especially when he 3.5x's. and it's also hard to proceed OOP facing aggression with draw so might raise some turns if I don't hit a pair or anything

Why 3b you say? IMO I don't think J10o is a good hand to 3b bluff here. When I thought about it I thought call>fold>3bet.


I was on the fence between call/fold. Maybe I should have put more thought into him 3.5Xing from the button.

Calling pre is never really a good idea, except with low/mid pockets. I would agree that you should fold, or if you really want to 3bet, which imo is a better move than calling.

I don't think it's a good enough hand to call and it's not that awful which usually triggers a raise response. If he folds to over 70% of 3bets or if it's less but I have a read that he'll fold a good deal of flops to me then I think it's a pretty good bluff spot, especially with how much dead $ he puts out there. Probably a 3bet > fold > call.

I think it's more fold>3bet>call. His stats hint that he's an okay player so with JT off you're really just hoping to hit a straight and cooler whatever he happens to hold right now. He's not that likely to make anywhere near enough mistakes post-flop that we can make up for having a weak hand that flops weak top and middle pairs and being out of position.

3betting has some merit because we can at least win the hand now, or have chances to barrel if we flop some equity with draws.

But really, folding seems best.

Thanks for the input guys... appreciate it. It seems now like this is a fold. I'd like to take you through my thought process and maybe you guys can point out where my thinking is off base(besides the decrepit thoughts I have when seeing a fine looking asian female).

After seeing the raise I thought J10 was too strong to fold. I first thought about 3bing but decided against it. I thought some times a 3b will pick up a fold, but I'd obv have to fold to a 4b and if he just called my 3b I'm really stuck. With a hand like A-3 or K-5 I'm three bettin(with plan to play passive if called and hit tp on flop), but with this hand I think it has too much equity not to see a flop. So three betting was out.

No its a call or fold. I thought it was probably the most borderline but decided to call. I felt if he's stealing I have OK equity and if he isn't at least I probably won't be dominated(as if I had something like an A-6o or something). If I have J-9o here I probably fold btw.

Thoughts?

:eyeroll: how are you boned if he calls your 3bet? Exactly what reads do you have on him that makes you think that he is absolutely going to own your soul with a really wide range by calling your 3bet?

Treat it like any other bluff hand; it has a couple of blockers to bigish hands, it can flop something sometimes, and other times you can just check/fold.

There are a few ways this can play out.

1) Opponent is raising a wide (or even not so wide) range on the button and folding lots, in which case this is good and you profit and can just x/f flops that you don't like the look of.

2) Opponent is raising a wide range on the button and not folding lots preflop. If he's folding lots of flops, this is fine and actually better than #1, and if he's not folding any flops well then there's really no reason to be discussing what a good 3bet bluffing range is, is there?

3) Opponent is not raising a wide range preflop and is not folding, in which case just folding lots seems like a pretty good plan since there's not a lot of dead money in his range.

4) Opponent is good, balanced, and will occasionally respond with aggression on boards we are likely to cbet but have not hit. This is incredibly rare, but honestly you can probably just avoid trying to do too much against this dude and just accept that the one/two hands per orbit you have against him where he is in position you should probably just let him do what he wants.

When you flat out of position with JTo it's tough to get paid when you nuts it, and when you don't you're always playing guessing games like in your OP hand.

Seems like if you're gonna call with TJ in bb, you have to check raise when you get a flop like this.

calling pre is DEF FINE vs your average 10nler, if you are competent post flop. but vs better players/hyper aggressive 3b or fold looks better.

saying pre is a big mistake is a mistake in itself.

i would probably fold river without any more info. but if i was ingame it might be a different decision based on game flow, better reads etc

good lord that is horrid advice post #11^^ no offense.

Sorry, but I'm going to call your post out as horrid advice.

45% range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.781% 43.12% 01.66% 4793045496 184943244.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 55.219% 53.56% 01.66% 5953345584 184943244.00 { 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q4s+, J6s+, T6s+, 96s+, 86s+, 76s, A3o+, K6o+, Q8o+, J8o+, T8o+, 98o }

33% range


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.370% 41.46% 01.91% 3330791292 153574806.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 56.630% 54.72% 01.91% 4396189464 153574806.00 { 22+, A2s+, K7s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A7o+, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o, 98o, 87o }

25% range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.710% 37.49% 02.22% 2226061080 132036894.00 { JTo }
Hand 1: 60.290% 58.07% 02.22% 3448135404 132036894.00 { 22+, A2s+, K9s+, Q9s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 86s+, 76s, 65s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Next, we are OOP, have reverse implied odds, and probably don't fight for air vs. air pots enough to show a profit.

As for x/r flop being horrid advice, who's pipe are you smoking? Our equity simply isn't that good especially being OOP, and our only (literally, only) other plan for winning the pot is to bink a straight. You can say "oh, well if he checks back turn we can fire river", but that is folding out the exact same range as if we x/r flop, gives him a chance to improve w/ AK/AJ, and if we x/r flop maybe we get him to fold JJ or A9o (questionable but *meh*).

i didnt say c/r this flop is bad, what i meant is the logic behind WHY the poster advocated the c/r. sorry for the miss communication.

anyway thanks for the stoved ranges. it looks like you forgot why i said flatting is ok; when BTN is your average 10nler reg(weak tight,passive etc).

Fold pre.
Checking call the flop seems like the worst option to me.