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03-22-2017 , 09:42 PM
#1
sicklmao
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stranger
Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 10
Vilain is playing 25/15/75 over pretty small sample of 20 hands, haven't any other read on the guy. I just sat down.

    Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37686388

    Hero (MP): $5 (100 bb)
    CO: $9.06 (181.2 bb)
    BTN: $4.66 (93.2 bb)
    SB: $5.02 (100.4 bb)
    BB: $5.72 (114.4 bb)
    UTG: $5.42 (108.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q
    UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.16, CO folds, BTN calls $0.16, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.39) 2 7 Q (2 players)
    Hero bets $0.21, BTN raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.39

    Turn: ($1.59) A (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $0.95, Hero calls $0.95

    River: ($3.49) 6 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $2, Hero ???????




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    So as played should we call getting 3:1 on our money and if so what is his value range that we're beating and what is bluffing range that we're bluff catching ??

    And should we consider getting it in on the turn??

    thank you
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
    03-22-2017 , 10:26 PM
    #2
    El_Russo1
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    centurion
    Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 105
    Think it's pretty close on the river. We beat 1 combo of Q7s, chop with 4 AQ and lose to 6 sets + some Qh bdfd draws that got there. He'd have to have some Q2s, and 72s in his range to make it a clear call. Don't see him raising anything else on the flop.

    For someone more knowledgable than myself, when you calculate the EV for chopping, do you count the pot as 50% i.e you have to be right twice as often?
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
    03-22-2017 , 10:32 PM
    #3
    .isolated's Avatar
    .isolated
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    Carpal \'Tunnel
    Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 21,495
    If you knew you were chopping you'd be calling $2 to win half of $3.49.
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
    03-22-2017 , 10:39 PM
    #4
    El_Russo1
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    centurion
    Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 105
    So effectively we "beat" 2 combos of AQ + 1 Q7s and lose to roughly 10 combos of sets+

    I'd say it's a fold
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
    03-23-2017 , 12:23 PM
    #5
    sicklmao
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    stranger
    Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 10
    bump
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
    03-26-2017 , 09:53 PM
    #6
    sicklmao
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    stranger
    Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 10
    anyone else?
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
    03-26-2017 , 10:24 PM
    #7
    tapeitup
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    centurion
    Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 135
    you could b/f river $1-1.50? KQh-Q9h are hands that could of taken this line also against you. Could be a semibluff on the flop with A2s or A7s which you beat still... its probably a breakeven call on the riv against a balanced player.

    I think getting it in on the turn is very reasonable, you do beat A2s and A7s and you deny equity to the turned heart draw hands. some buttons even will raise flops with hands like 56/89h because almost 50% of the deck allows him to continue on the turn.
    Facing flop raise spot Quote
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