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Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Do i lose money on the long-term with this play?
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01-31-2015 , 11:21 AM
#1
DaJoker1988
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journeyman
Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 377
    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $7.86 (78.6 bb)
    BB: $10 (100 bb)
    MP: $7.57 (75.7 bb)
    Hero (CO): $11.07 (110.7 bb)
    BTN: $16.80 (168 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 6 6
    MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, SB folds, BB calls $0.30, MP raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80, BTN calls $0.80, BB calls $0.80

    Flop: ($4.85) 3 6 7 (4 players)
    BB checks, MP bets $4.53, Hero calls $4.53, 2 folds

    Turn: ($13.91) 8 (2 players)
    MP checks, Hero bets $1.90, MP calls $1.84 and is all-in

    River: ($17.59) K (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Spoiler:
    Results: $17.59 pot ($1.14 rake)
    Final Board: 3 6 7 8 K
    MP showed K A and lost (-$7.57 net)
    Hero showed 6 6 and won $16.45 ($8.88 net)


    Villian rec player 57/8/ 5% limp raise/ RFI UTG 0%/RFI MP 0% / 173 HANDS
    Its obv that his limp/raise range is very strong made of AQs+/AK and probably JJ+ . What do you think about my call preflop to his re-raise? Is this a -EV call giving his stats and stack size? I think postflop we dont have to discuss the hand ....
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 11:23 AM
    #2
    CCM
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    Carpal \'Tunnel
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    It depends quite a lot on how bad btn and bb are
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 11:50 AM
    #3
    mackeleven
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    old hand
    Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,593
    you're hoping for the two behind to cold call, to flop a set and to stack at least one of the players behind because you don't have right odds with the initial raiser short.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 12:08 PM
    #4
    ForeverLearning
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    no
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 01:06 PM
    #5
    DaJoker1988
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ForeverLearning
    no
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 01:33 PM
    #6
    ForeverLearning
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    no, you don't
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 02:31 PM
    #7
    schamed's Avatar
    schamed
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    grinder
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ForeverLearning
    no, you don't
    set-mining with pocket 66 vs. 3-bet and two players left behind is +EV here? I don't think so. You only on average every 8 time your set.

    I think it's an easy fold. Pleas correct me if I am wrong, but please give me reasona why I am thinking wrong.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 04:31 PM
    #8
    Killme37
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by schamed
    set-mining with pocket 66 vs. 3-bet and two players left behind is +EV here? I don't think so. You only on average every 8 time your set.

    I think it's an easy fold. Pleas correct me if I am wrong, but please give me reasona why I am thinking wrong.
    I agree. Not really sure why people are saying otherwise.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 04:47 PM
    #9
    Yoshimiii's Avatar
    Yoshimiii
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    It's pretty easy call.

    MP likely has QQ+ cause LRR is always nuts.

    Others behind probably call too. If you hit a set on flop you are guaranteed atleast 1 stack.

    Edit: didn't see MP is short. It's probably closer but if you think BTN and/or BB are calling then you should call obv.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 05:58 PM
    #10
    schamed's Avatar
    schamed
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    grinder
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    Isn´t there a rule of thumb estimate that you can only profitable setmine when there is 20-times the amount of raise behind in the stack.

    For example. 3-Bet to 12BB there should be left 240bb in the raisers stack to make it profitable?

    A more detailed thought on this would be nice. I think against a short player with 70BB who LRR with a range stronger than JJ+ we are 4:1 underdog or am I on the wrong wy to evaluate this situation?
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 06:02 PM
    #11
    ChalkOutline's Avatar
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    If button and bb are often to call that sqz, than its a good play.

    Though i wouldn`t flat with any pocket pair lower.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 06:15 PM
    #12
    toon dawg
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by schamed
    Isn´t there a rule of thumb estimate that you can only profitable setmine when there is 20-times the amount of raise behind in the stack.

    For example. 3-Bet to 12BB there should be left 240bb in the raisers stack to make it profitable?
    I believe that in Blackrains book about crushing the micros, you generally want your opponent to have at least 15x the raise. So calling a .80 raise he would have to have 12$for it to be profitable long term to set mine.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 06:28 PM
    #13
    Yoshimiii's Avatar
    Yoshimiii
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    You aren't taking into consideration implied odds of players behind and the fact that we will always be getting atleast 1 stack if we hit a set.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 06:35 PM
    #14
    ohsnapzbrah
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Yoshimiii
    It's pretty easy call.

    MP likely has QQ+ cause LRR is always nuts.

    Others behind probably call too. If you hit a set on flop you are guaranteed atleast 1 stack.

    Edit: didn't see MP is short. It's probably closer but if you think BTN and/or BB are calling then you should call obv.
    This x a million. We're getting about 3 to 1 on a call, but given that MP lolimadonklimpraised, he probably has a big hand and that big hand will almost certainly pay us off. And when we call, there is a good chance BTN and/or BB will come along as well, further increasing our odds.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 06:40 PM
    #15
    ohsnapzbrah
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by toon dawg
    I believe that in Blackrains book about crushing the micros, you generally want your opponent to have at least 15x the raise. So calling a .80 raise he would have to have 12$for it to be profitable long term to set mine.
    This is just a guideline. There are no hard fast rules. Besides, you can adjust odds and stuff for certain players. For instance, this guy is a massive fish and will probably pay off when we hit. We therefore need less than the 15x for it to be profitable. Against a nit who probably won't stack off without a set, we probably need way more than 15x for it to be profitable.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 07:08 PM
    #17
    toon dawg
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ohsnapzbrah
    This is just a guideline. There are no hard fast rules. Besides, you can adjust odds and stuff for certain players. For instance, this guy is a massive fish and will probably pay off when we hit. We therefore need less than the 15x for it to be profitable. Against a nit who probably won't stack off without a set, we probably need way more than 15x for it to be profitable.
    I agree with that but even so wouldnt calling a 8bb to win his 60bb behind a little speculative long term to set mine this even if hes garunteed to pay us off?
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 07:35 PM
    #18
    Yoshimiii's Avatar
    Yoshimiii
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    Again. We aren't last to act. There are guys behind who will probably call. This is a major reason to call.
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    01-31-2015 , 07:48 PM
    #19
    VantACoo-key?'s Avatar
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ForeverLearning
    no
    correct. +1
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
    02-01-2015 , 05:13 AM
    #20
    schamed's Avatar
    schamed
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    grinder
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    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Yoshimiii
    Again. We aren't last to act. There are guys behind who will probably call. This is a major reason to call.
    So finally we can say it depends a lot on table structure. If there are two nits in the blinds folding almost always to a LRR or a LAG reg who is aware of mp LRR and expected it to shove over because of slow-playing a monster, than its an easy fold.

    A fishy game with two calling-stations in the blinds gives us enough implied odds to call. Obviously one villain will pay us off because they are only playing cards without thinking.

    I find this process of evaluating this situation with small pockets very interesting. Such a thing is very helpful.
    Thanks a lot guys.

    Schamed
    Do i lose money on the long-term with this play? Quote
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