Villain is fairly unknown reg 28/21/5 over approx 100 hands. Very small sample but I have already seen him raise a flop cbet IP on wet, drawy boards twice.

Flop: I really hate flatting his reraise here as this is now the 3rd time ive seen him make this move out of 6 flops ive seen him take. Feels like a pretty standard 3bet OTF to punish his semibluffs that would otherwise take down the pot on most turns. Also, i might actually fold out some 88/99 as well as get called by worse 7's.

Turn: One of the best cards in the deck IMO, this very rarely significantly improves Villain and I can maintain initiative with confidence that I'm against a very draw heavy range that I don't want to give a free card. Only worried about 88/99, A3s. How can villain have a set, straight, two pair, and not GII OTF?


River: Perceived by competent villains as a very bad card for Hero's value range. my two pairs, overpairs, and sets are obviously not very strong anymore. That being said, I think this particular villain is going to bluff at this river with his missed semi-bluffs with a VERY high frequency. All his flush draws and missed straight draws should be bluffing at this river which is supposed to be terrifying for hero. Also, Villain would never be value shoving this river with some Ax two pair like A5s or A2s. Villains sets don't take this line, nor does a flopped straight or two pair. This river shove is either a straight with his random Xs3s combos or hes bluffing with the huge amount of missed flush draw and 6x semibluffs. I basically snap called this river.


[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37399790

BTN: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $62.85 (251.4 bb)
BB: $30.99 (124 bb)
UTG: $31.57 (126.3 bb)
MP: $42.09 (168.4 bb)
CO: $39.88 (159.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q 7
4 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.50) 5 7 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1, BB raises to $2.30, Hero raises to $5.61, BB calls $3.31

Turn: ($12.72) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, BB calls $8

River: ($28.72) A (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $16.63 and is all-in, Hero calls $16.63

FPS
Check flop if he's raising that much

I agree that villain would be getting in his strong made hands on that flop if he had one, but why don't you think he would shove A2ss or A5ss on the river? For that price on the river I think the call is fine since his value range is so narrow.

I think whats his flatting range in BB need to take into consideration.
Does he ever have Ax of spades?
the wider he flats in BB the more im inclined to call his river bet because he will have more missed draws/pair + draws on the river vs his actual value range.

If I'm expected to be ahead of villain when he raises my cbet and I can profitably 3bet OTF against this type of villain why would it be better to c/c

I don't get it. Why are you doing this? Your reasoning doesn't make sense. If you think you have the best hand, why not just call here and avoid building a big pot when only hands that beat you are going to continue? Why are you turning your hand into a bluff?

I'm really confused.

Flatting against his semibluff range is pretty awful IMO when we just get blown off our hand on practically every turn card. If you think I am turning my hand into a bluff then you clearly misinterpreted my reasoning by about 99%. if you think only hands that beat me are going to continue on the flop then you are completely wrong, a portion of his stronger semi-bluffs will continue which is a range that i can profitably bluff catch against OTR.

You seem to be making very optimistic assumptions about villain to justify your play

I´m kind of struggling too.
If your plan is to bluffcatch, why do you want to build the pot otf?
We also get blown off of our hand if he shoves flop after you raise.
Also, our hand can´t really improve much. Not even a BDFD.

To pot control.

How do you figure that? He'll ditch 88/99 but call with worse 7s? I'm not saying this is flawed thinking, just want to know. He puts you on an overpair as you're representing, so he'll fold all 7s except those also have a gutshot, which are likelier to improve vs an overpair than 88 and 99?

This is another assumption, because anyone with game sense should see you either have a real hand or are calling down. If he shoves the river on missed draws he should still shove on just a rivered ace no kicker. His shove is just 2/3rd pot too shoving river too, what other value bet can he make?

If he still has enough missed draw combinations, then not a bad spot to bluffcatch. It's just not so cut and dry that you beat him everytime on the river, you still have to give him Ax or A5 or whatever and do the math. I actually agree that on his runout + your plan you have to call. If he is draw heavy, and you're supremely confident in your reads, I have nothing against you swinging for the fences. A lot of highcard flush draws, all the gutshots and OESDs missed.


The danger is just in the assumptions. A fallacy is that he'll raise cbet wide -> hence he'll continue when you 3bet flop light. You don't know that, and this is a very expensive way of finding out. In order for this play to work out better you should just call his raise, then bet PSB on turn to disappoint his expectation for a free card.

What was your plan if turn was a spade or an offsuit King or Jack for example? Genuinely want to know. Pot is bloated, do you keep going or do you check fold?

@op: To me it looks like you were tilting in this hand while trying to justify actions by making overly optimistic assumptions.

Also your reasoning otr justifies value betting any A villain may have


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