Villain is 75/4/0.37 in 45 hands. I have only seen him cold call a 4x raise and show down JJ when he calls flop and turn bet on a queen high board and checks behind on an ace river.

Here I check flop since I'm either way ahead or way behind (am I mistaken here?) and for pot control. Obviously I put villain on a 4 based on my read at turn, but I got outs for a bigger fullhouse and villain seems to be the type to pay off if it hits on the river. I tried a value bet on the river but the raise was sick, tanked for a bit and decided to fold based on my read and the fact that villain doesn't seem to get out of line post flop. Is this alright?

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $10.60
Hero (BB): $14.30
UTG: $5.50
MP: $9.30
CO: $17.15
BTN: $8.70

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with K J
UTG calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, 1 fold, SB calls $0.05, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.50) K 4 4 (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks

Turn: ($0.50) J (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG calls $0.40, MP raises to $0.90, CO folds, SB folds, Hero calls $0.50, UTG calls $0.50

River: ($3.20) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.50, UTG folds, MP raises to $7, Hero folds

I'd be inclined to check call the river, as played I'm all in here every time. If he has the 4 then power to him but with his loose calling range he could have J8, J9, JT, QJ, K9, KT, KQ here, maybe with a flush draw on the turn. I'm no expert but thats my thoughts.

I dont really want to take this to the felt because its A) unraised pot and B) IMO best outcome would be a chop. I would like to hear more takes on this.

Hands that beat you are very very unlikely... he would have raised preflop if he had JJ or KK

So this only leaves the 4 to us
,but find it much more likely that he´s holding some kind of kx or jx or dunno.
Played like this he could put you on Jx.


I would call the River: It´s more likely that you beat his hand, than running against a hand that beats you.
Pushing to his raise doesn´t seem to be a good solution to me, nothing worse would call you there.

you're getting 2:1

possible hands he'd make that big raise with:
x-4
K-x
AA
KK
maybe J-x

AA and KK are rather unlikely
x-4 is definitely possible as well as K-x

Would he make that move with K-x, having to be afraid that YOU hold the 4 and you might re-raise allin? I doubt that unless he's a donk.

What does he put you on?
Either x-4 or K-x or J-x.
Would he call with J-x? Yes. Would he raise with J-x? I don't think so.
Would he raise with K-x? Only if he puts you on a king or jack and wants to get some folding equity.

J-x is unlikely.
x-4 is more likely than K-x because of his big raise.

2:1 but x-4 being more likely it looks like a coin flip.

I'd call and hope for a king to show up.

I'm probably raising PF to avoid murky spots like this, and I'm probably reraising the turn as well. I wouldn't check the flop for pot control either - better to throw a bet out there and see what happens. The thing with WA/WB spots is that you want to do your best to find out ASAP which it is. Betting the flop is a great way to do that - if you get reraised on the flop, then you can either safely fold or play for pot control by just calling.

River, I'm calling it. I'm putting villain on a Jack, TBH. The turn reraise is such a donk "ZOMG I have two pair" reraise which makes the river a "ZOMG I have a fullhouse" reraise. A villain that is as loose/passive as this is definitely not thinking one level ahead of you. He's not afraid of the flop K because you checked and therefore he's not worried about his overfull being beat by a higher pair.

Does anyone else lead the flop here? With your line, I would also check/call the river, probably check/fold to a pot or greater bet (given his .37 af and his turn just more than minraise).

Hell yeah I lead the flop here. Heres why.

1) His stats. We bet for value if he has a lesser king.
2) Find out NOW if he has a 4 instead of trying to figure it out on the turn when a non ace comes, and we're stuck wondering if he's raising a weak king or a 4. His AF tells us he's more likely to flat call with a weaker king on the flop (correct right?).
3) Limit the field; get rid of Ax'ers, so you're not stuck with checking an A on the turn.

Anyone disagree?

edit: As played I probably just call. I would have bet, bet, c/c'd though.

Not to sound like a dick to OP, but I feel like the way this hand was played such that we got the absolute minimum possible information as to villain's hand strength.