What about when villain checks behind on the flop? Assuming a brick on the turn, are you leading out or c/c?

+1

Well, if you are assigning him a very narrow range for peeling the flop but a wider range for calling our 4-bet pre flop, yeah. I kind of see where you are going with this, but actually in your example he doesn't call the flop without the top of his range. So if he folds the majority of his (presumably wide) range regularly, it seems to me that betting here with any two cards is going to be profitable more often than not long term.

I admit I am still unsure of my own thinking on what I just wrote. I kind of feel like I am missing something but am on the right track.

Indeed. On the flop, it doesn't define his hand if he flats our c bet, I agree. But I think I alluded to then checking the turn in my previous post. If we check the turn and he bets, we fold because he's unlikely to value bet worse and probably not good enough to turn a hand with showdown value into a bluff. Agree or disagree so far?

If we check the turn and he checks back, I think you make an excellent point in that he might have an Ax and check that back as well, in which case we'd just value cut ourselves if we led river. So the river is probably a spot where we should check fold as well because I still don't think he turns TT-QQ into a bluff. I think earlier I said I'd consider leading river if villain checked back turn but bleh, that is pretty thin and I retract the notion after some thought. I don't doubt a lot of villains would look us up with QQ but even a really bad villain probably 5 bets that pre flop. So now we are talking about exactly TT and JJ that we get value from. Not a big enough part of villain's range imo.

I completely agree that we never get three streets out of worse (or even two streets playing OOP like in this hand). It's just a ****ty situation.

So anyway, I think what we need to talk about more in this thread is our line if we make it to the river. There was a point for me about 6 months ago where I would actually check call river but I now think this is horrible against a almost any villain at 25NL. I mean even the biggest droolers have to feel pretty good about their piece of cheese Ax after we check twice. I guess the issue I had earlier in this thread is that check calling the flop is too weak and exploitable but actually I think I need to adjust my thinking for the 25NL meta-game. What I meant to say earlier in this thread and never did is that against a thinking opponent, our hand is face up as a single pair that can't stand a lot of heat because any time we just check call we are obviously trying to slow the pot down. We obviously don't have a big ace or better. But if villain is calling a pre flop 3 bet cold with A7o or some similar garbage, they obviously aren't thinking on our level in the first place. The whole thing that makes this hand (and so many like it) suck is our lack of knowledge of villain's pre flop calling range for a 3 bet.

I feel like I am rambling now and the more I type the less sense I make, so I am just gonna stop now.

Agreed!

On the flop yeah, but think of how the hand will play from start to finish. What does he do with TT on the turn when we check? Turn it into a bluff? He checks back wayyyyyy more often than not imo.

I think that is actually the worst line you could possibly take since you're just completely turning your hand into a bluff or bluff catcher (more like flip catcher, actually, since your equity against a combo draw is far from towering).

I think you are on the right track in saying he bet's his flush draws but I don't think he ever bets Ax on the flop if we check...he probably checks behind for pot control with anything less than AQ and in fact, the more I think about it, the more I think his range of aces does not include random Ax. I mean it might, but it's just kind of weird for anyone to play A7o this way. Also, if we check, based on OP's read of villain, I think he just shoves flush draws given the action leading up to this point.

Also, why would be bet underpairs that actually have showdown value like TT and JJ? If you meant underpairs like 55, again, I lump them in the same category as A7o...very unlikely to be in his range given the line taken pre flop.

C-bet is the best option. If he has something like TT+ he'll bet to you thinking he can get you off a marginal hand, and your check to him will make him think you don't have an ace.

If he calls it, shut down, if he raises fold.

Can't understand all the people say cbet here, we're not folding out better and we're getting worse to fold most of the time so a bet is clearly -EV. I think check/calling and check/raising all in is pretty close here.

If we're folding out worse/getting called by better when we cbet, what are we folding out/getting called by when we crai?

Flush draws and PPs which have decided to bet the flop for one reason or another and now have decided they're pot committed.

I think crai on the flop is ridicuterrible. Like, literally the worst move you could possibly make. Because I don't think villain bets pocket pairs on the flop with the intention of calling a shove, period, and flush draws are too narrow a part of his range. I think if villain bets a pocket pair on the flop, it is because he feels you've given him the license to start a 3 barrel bluff but stack sizes aren't good for that line at all. You're basically turning a hand with moderate showdown value into a total bluff. So you fold out the hands you were beating anyway with a crai and get stacked by a hand that has you beat, ie, Ax.

imho

Look at post 37 then look at post 38. Note the dates. wtf?

Yeah, I dunno how #38 found this thread but it was a good bump.

It's been a while since I posted my original thoughts and now I am starting to think I was initially too paranoid Maybe it is better to check flop, check turn, bet river. If opponent bets flop, the bet size is definitely key. You almost want them to bet big so it is easier to fold. Like, I think its actually really tough when people post oak bluff 1/4 pot on flop, twice that on turn, then shove river for a pot size bet. Raptor takes that line a lot in his videos and it's incredibly difficult to play against. I mean it only has to succeed a very small portion of the time to be profitable on the flop and turn. It's a testament to the power of position.

LOL @ all the ppl wanting to turn KK into a bluff on the flop.

c) - he calls, shut it down.

It's obv an old, old thread but i think its an interesting hand. I always thought a cbet/shutdown was standard. What do you think is best c/c flop c/c or c/f turn?? Against a difficult opponent are we not making our hand blatantly obvious?

sorry, but I don't see him folding JJ+ for a 6$ CB here while IP...

but I see him folding JJ+ to 9$ CB here...

we don't lose much value (3$) against the Ax hands, but we gain whole pot against worse PPs that may float us and take the pot on the Turn...

good point

Ok if he calls with a crappy pp preflop, you're never gonna get his stack. He's either gonna hit his set of hes gonna fold. We're not protecting our hand against small pocket pairs, we just know they're never gonna pay us off unless we cooler them.

This depends if you think you'll get much money out of QQ\JJ postflop OOP. Is he gonna stack off with an overpair? Is he gonna call a bet with an ace showing?

I think you underestimate the fact that it's hard to extract value OOP.

I feel the argument for check/call flop based on the idea of getting value from worse is flawed because there is little value to extract from TT-QQ or whatever range you have assigned villain. I don't think TT-QQ is playing aggressively enough to barrel and won't call many decently sized bets in a 3bet pot Ace-high flop. I feel the marginal value in the following streets is negated by the times you get bluffed off of your bigger PP because you showed weakness on the flop and the times you give weaker PPs free cards to make sets.

Just my .02.

1. Preflop raise is standard & fine.

Now on the flop....

Check raising:
Plus:
Might fold out the following hands that are beating you, A2-A6 (fish don't fold aces though...)
Might get value from 99-QQ who'll call 1 bet and happily showdown with you.
Negatives:
A2-A6 probably folded preflop, unless they're really loose. (And if that's the case, there's better spots.)
The 8 and 7 are bad cards for you here in case somebody opened with A7, A8. A9+ probably call you. The A2-A6 might even call you at these stakes then you have to shutdown and you took yourself to valuetown (for them).
Conclusion: -Most EV Play

Continuation Betting:
Plus:
Get value from 99-QQ
No affect:
Folds out smaller pairs that might spike a set. (if they did and bet you fold anyway afraid of ace) You don't have to worry about protecting against a straight draw with preflop action, and if you're worried about a possible flush draw, you should also look under your bed every night.
You "define your hand". As previous posters have said, who the hell cares. Wow know you know your KK is beat when they fire on the turn, did you really have to fire on the flop to find that out? I think not, I'll explain in the next step....
Minus: Take yourself to valuetown again against most Aces. Albiet the price is cheaper than Check Raising lol. I mean, are you seriously gonna be a hero and fire a 2nd bullet on the turn if its a blank? If you do theres a chance you fold out A9-A10, but at these limits.....
Conclusion: -EV Play

Check Calling Flop, Check Folding Turn:
Plus:
Limits your downside against medium/strong Aces!
99-QQ will may fire 1 bullet then stop and you get value. Or most likely they'll check down the hand and you win anyway.
You "define your hand" by calling. Most 99-QQ won't fire again unless they're a maniac, and you'll know them before this hand from your reads.
Minus:
You could have maybe extracted an extra bet from 99-QQ
You might let in a set that hits on the turn (5% chance) if he has PP
BTW, I think check/folding is too nitty especially if your read is that he's loose aggro. Of course, I could be wrong.
Conclusion: +EV Play


Main Point:
Take some other factors into the game besides just the board.

Detach yourself from how Awesome those KK looked preflop.

Playing hands that are of Medium Strength while your OOP, in a big pot, is a recipe for fail. It's A LOT easier to play these KK if you were in position...

Discuss...

I agree with your reasoning for the most part, except that we've gotta take into account our two blockers to AK, which is pretty significant imo.

12 combos of JJ-QQ, 12 of AQ, 6 of AK. Discounting AA and KK cause of blockers/he flatted rather than 4bet pre. So I guess he's got more hands that beat us than don't, unless we add TT and then it's 18:18 combos which makes our life hell, but I think we can agree that TT is optimistic.

3betting KK and then c/f'ing flop sucks ****, but getting our c-bet flatted is prob worse, and obv more expensive. I feel like c-betting will get called otf by QQ and JJ just cause people want to be sure before they fold a big pair, especially guys like this who are loose and bad as OP said. But I guess if we c-bet, get flatted, and then villain checks back turn, his range is face up as JJ, QQ, and (sometimes) AQ.

I actually have no answer for this. c/f I guess lol

More than one person in this thread seems to think villain will raise AK, AQ on the flop, but I seriously doubt it. What does raising accomplish when you've got a virtual lock on the hand? I get that this post was started about a specific case against a player who's not that great, but I think the default line for the default villain here with Ax on this flop is flat a c-bet almost always, because it allows you to balance the times you have draws and smaller pairs.

You might want to consider the fact that these posts are 5 years old when analysing them archimedes. Just an idea.

yup I know. thanks for the hot tip

dafuq is going on in here ?