Originally Posted by COKE_MAN
With all the hands lately where villain flats hero's 4bet, my head is starting to spin.
I probably call this off too since even if villain has KK+, AKdd we still have the right odds I think, but in the back of my head I am thinking, "the 2+2 guys are going to say 'wtf? you only have 1 pair'" (Maybe that comment really only applies in a single raised pots where villain shoves so SPR is different though?).
What are you really putting this guy on when he flats the 4bet then shoves this flop? Granted, it is BvB, but here I would be thinking KK+, AKdd. QQ-JJ might flat but probably not shoving this flop. I am interested in the "could be shoving all kinds of crap" type statements; as, versus an unknown, I struggle to apply that logic and assume they are not flatting a 4bet with junk. (I was very surprised to see what he actually had)
This is why you don't give incredibly tight ranges to unknowns. They are unknowns and they can have unknown hands
It's important to apply this principle especially when SPR is low so that you are getting good odds and when the hands that beat you are few.
In general people spazz more in reraised pots.
Apart from your assumptions above one could assume that an unknown is mostly shoving AK KK pre. One could also assume he flats a set IP OTF. These assumptions might very well be wrong, but so could be your assumptions. And folding here even with way worse hands than we have is potentially a bigger mistake than calling because of the odds we are getting-
You can't really put an unknown villain on specific few hands here.
The most common hands I would expect are KQ KJ AQ, but he also can have any two cards in the deck. It's a question of frequencies.
Hands that beat us are the three sets. While the PPs are more common hands to call preflop than Q9 for example, and possibly
he is more likely to shove with 33 than Q9o on the flop when he has those hands, the deck contains so many more hands that don't hit the flop than those that hit it. So I wouldn't be surprised to see "random air" here.
But I'd say decent big suited connectors with a flushdraw, KQ, KJ, AQ
are the ones I most expect to see, followed by 8x and random air.
KK 55 33 might come up time to time but less than 10% of the time.
I expect him to be much more likely to shove KJ than any set. Sets flat and the combos that make them are a very small part of his preflop range anyway (again we don't know his preflop range, but whatever it is KK 55 88 don't make a major part of it).