PokerStars - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 172.6 BB
SB: 407.2 BB (VPIP: 13.82, PFR: 12.20, 3Bet Preflop: 3.28, Hands: 129)
BB: 100 BB (VPIP: 21.35, PFR: 11.24, 3Bet Preflop: 3.03, Hands: 90)
UTG: 286.8 BB (VPIP: 26.67, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 15)
MP: 86.2 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
CO: 559 BB (VPIP: 24.56, PFR: 17.54, 3Bet Preflop: 8.70, Hands: 57)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q A

UTG raises to 3 BB, MP calls 3 BB, fold, Hero raises to 12 BB, fold, fold, UTG calls 9 BB, fold

Flop: (28.4 BB, 2 players) 3 4 T
UTG checks, Hero checks

Turn: (28.4 BB, 2 players) 5
UTG bets 13.8 BB, fold

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V seems like an okay reg from stats over small sample.

Think squeeze is okay with the fish cold-calling which should make V's calling range a bit tighter.

When V does call I expect his range to be something like medium PPs and AK. With this in mind, just hoping to x/f to SD unless we improve okay?

I think the squueze is fine but I'm just wondering why you would squeeze pre and then check back this flop IP? A CB will fold out all his AK type hands and middle pairs (which is great for you) and you block lots of flush draw combos with the Ad..(Not to mention you have the nut backdoor flush) and therefore could conceivably call turn with your equity. You'll rarely get to showdown (and win) by checking/folding the whole way.

I dont think we need to balance our betting/ checking range here, so checking is not bad, however, you have BD-NFD, several turn cards that you can continue barreling when holding good pot equity + good fold equity...

Would a x/r flop work? It's a hand that we don't mind folding at all if V 3bets, and there are lots of turns that we can keep barrelling if he calls (A, K, Q, diamond)

^ we're IP

I guess this is where I disagree. I think our pot equity is okay to good with the backdoors, but that and a Q OTT is all that's probably good for us.

I really disagree about the fold equity too. I don't think AK folds to one barrel and none of his pairs (probably 88 at the lowest) fold to one and sometimes will put me on AK/AQ even when firing 2 barrels. And even when a good barrelling card comes he's still calling a lot of his PP hands with a dia. Are we happy shoving a blank river with just the NFD blocker after being called twice? Feel like we get heroed with JJ too often for that.

I'm not certain all of this is the correct thinking btw, just playing devil's advocate as much as anything because it feels like I spew a lot bluffing 3bps with AQ/AK when I could just give up and save some $.

For some reason i would swear i thought we were SB, ignore my comment then lol

Villians calling range pf is probably wider because of the MP(not fullstack!). So you are underestimating your FE. Also, as you know, a 50%potsize cbet only has to work 33% of the time.

If we cbet:
- we are less likely to be bluffed out of the pot by a worse hand

-We probably cannot make him fold a better hand (pairs) (maybe AK?)
-but we do fold out his random equity (from KQs, AJs, QJs, 89s)

- and we can actually get some value if V has a FD
- we could hit a A or Q and beat his JJ or w/e. we might hit the nutflush/straight as well
- We could also hit a good scarecard such as a K

Not everybody plays a fit/fold strategy with middle pairs. Perhaps you do (many did in the past), but you should not assume most people do this.