Hi guys i think i messed up a hand (again)

Hand is from 6max snap/zoom on 888. No huds allowed so no stats on villain but he seems to be an ok semi-reg.



I ranged him pre on something like JJ-66/AJo+/98s+ after he calls the 3bet. He might be a bit wider, but probably not much.

I felt that based on that range taking a passive line postflop is better since he misses this board a lot and i can let him bluff.





Reasons for calling: His betsize is obviously polarizing, I can't imagine him turning Jx or an underpair into a bluff here for that sizing, and everything else misses. You'd also expect him to bet turn with the top of his range.

Reasons for folding: he bets 2.5x pot so our odds arent great, he needs to be bluffing >40%; On the river my hand is near the bottom of my 3bet range; most players who overbet in these games just have it a lot.

Any suggestions on river or my overall line are welcome. Thanks in advance.

I just don't see solid 50nl players bluffing this way. Not often enough to start heroing A highs.

I don´t see a point even thinking about this otr.
This is the goods a lot.

On this flop texture, I´d like to have a heart in my hand to float oop in addition to my gutshot.

+1

You for sure get some weird and wonderful hands here on occasion and he reps pretty damn thin, so I don't think it's outrageous to consider what bluff catchers you have here. Mostly though I think you just see QJ/JJ that missed a check/raise and now doesn't know what the best value line is.

The offsuit queens besides AQo probably fold preflop, and I think he can have JJ as well as he may not jam or 4bet preflop. So a range of JJ/QJs+/AQo amounts to 13 value combos.

He actually does have a few missed royal flush draws and ten-high flush draws, maybe just 9h8s as you mentioned. There's still that one AhKh combo.

vs. [JJ, AQs,KQs,QJs,AhKh,AhTh,KhTh,Th9h,Th8h,9h8h,AQo] you have 30.56% equity which is less than 44.01/(44.01+17.96+44.01) = 41.5% offered by the pot odds.

But how does the polarized part play into this? Obviously we don't have the odds to call, but we can't use odds alone since that would imply that we can never bluffcatch the river?

By instinct I have a suspicion this is exactly QJ or JJ. Trips still bet the turn to protect vs. two flush draws (plus you block AQ/KQ too), but a full house would try to let you hit a flush with AcKc or AhKh which would be a good portion of your c-c range on the flop. Same with AJ, letting you hit the jacks full. They can still get paid off even if you miss the flush because AK/AJ can still hero call unimproved, which would be the logic behind a polarized bet.

It's an ambitious bluff too because you can have KK/AA and be inclined to call down.

I think it's a fold.

this is out of the question

He has not bluff in hand. A lot part of his 3bet call range got in the flop cards.

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oh man ''Hi guys i think i messed up a hand (again) '' u think?
wow i am a 2nl fish
but wtf did u call this flop?
terrible flop call imo
as played fold river LOL