Full Tilt Poker $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $25.50 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 15, 3B: 7, AF: 1,2, Hands: 86
BTN: $37.30 - VPIP: 60, PFR: 28, 3B: 0, AF: 8,0, Hands: 25
Hero (SB): $106.95 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 17, 3B: 7, AF: 2,3, Hands: 115377
BB: $58.45 - VPIP: 25, PFR: 22, 3B: 13, AF: 3,9, Hands: 269
UTG: $167.55 - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 7, AF: 5,0, Hands: 271
MP: $37.15 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 12, 3B: 0, AF: 7,0, Hands: 85

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with Q Q
UTG raises to $1.50, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.50, 1 fold, UTG calls $5, 1 fold

Flop: ($15.00) 2 6 T (2 players)
Hero bets $7.50, UTG calls $7.50

Turn: ($30.00) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $15.00, UTG calls $15

River: ($60.00) 5 (2 players)

Do we valuebet here? Possible he flat KK/AA from UTG cause we're pretty deep here.

UTG is pretty nitty - I don't see anything worse than JJ in his open-call 3bet range that peels two streets. Only hand we get value from, if that, is JJ. I don't think he peels two streets with AKo here.

I'm actually fine with going into pot control mode on the turn here if it's that deep. I'd let his worse floats bet. What's his fold to c-bet percentage on flop/turn? Do you know?

2 street hand

you got two streets

Check river hoping he checks back. Assuming he's aware that he's OOP vs a lag fish OTB, his UTG opening range is something like any pocket pair, KQs, & AJ+. You're 200bbs deep w/him, so his calling range IP vs your 3b is roughly any pocket pair, AQs, & AK.

Due to stack sizes, that board run out is actually terrible for you. Expect him to call 100% of his PF range on that flop. However, OTT, he folds AQ/AK and most likely 99-77. By the river, his range is narrowed to roughly 22-66, TT+, and he can't possibly feel great about JJ. If you check OTR, and he bets, he has you crushed like 9 times out of 10. It sounds nitty, but I think check/fold is the best line.