I discuss the hand in a YouTube format to explain my thoughts which led me to be faced with the river decision:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvUyJHX6tZY

To recap ...

Preflop is a bit loose but I think the table conditions make it ok and that I'll often have the mark HU in postion postflop. I'm at the table because of him so I'm going to go out of my way to get in pots with him. Q9s def qualifies as a hand I'm looking to play there.

On the flop I think that the raise will be +EV vs. the mark at the table given that he bet $1.50 into $7.00 (Folding is ok, and calling sucks). Once called I plan on shutting down but hit runner-runner trips. It's checked to me. The loose/passive player has a little less than a PSB left. The solid reg has around 2x PSB left and I cover.

What's the best play here? As I said, I'm betting, but how much?

You've backdoored trips on a board that didn't have many draws available, and ZERO that actually came in.

I'm not putting proph on that heavy of a range, otherwise, i think he would have showed some initiative somewhere w/ a c/r on flop, donk on turn and certainly a donk on the river after you checked behind the turn. Therefore, we are trying to get paid off by Kx where x is usually a J or higher, sometimes a T. Didn't catch the stats, but if SB shows you K9 on the river it's a cooler.


I bet $14 on the river hoping to catch two callers and win a good sized pot. The question is really are we bet/folding to a raise from the SB?

I would bet pretty strong to get value obv, but not too strong for them to let go of a K with not so great kicker. About 12 to 15 seems good to me. If I knew one of them was a big calling station i would bet at least 3/4 pot.

I don't think either of them is that strong on the river. I think prop would bet a strong hand most of the time on the river after the turn checks around knowing that there's a loose player left to act after him who can probably call light and will not bet so often.

I think it's a pretty classic example of putting your opponents on a range and betting accordingly. The SB has been so passive that he so rarely has a hand that can call a good sized bet, unless we have some kind of read that he likes to make hero calls.

Lots of people like to overbet here or pot or whatever, but your missing money by betting your hand strength instead of your opponents.

I think I would bet pretty small

like $8-$12 or something

I just want to get a call from the fish or try and get the reg to call with a weird Kx or PP

$14 is good and folding if sb check/raises is mandatory since he's just never going to be bluffing.

compare a bet of 18.5 to one of 9 the 9 has to be called twice as often in comparison to the 18.5.

So assume he'll check call his 66-QQ hands to 9 but not to 18.5. Also assume his k-x range (I think he's 20 vpip?) is like KTo+ k8s+, which is 4x16+8=72 combos. Probably remove some of the AK combos and whatnot, so maybe round it off to 60. 66-QQ represents 7x6=42 combos of hands. They just aren't going to equal out so I think you have to bet 18.5. An inbetween bet of $12-$13 may work since sometimes the really weak pairs may call, but I really think betting something like pot/near pot is the best idea. It'll be pretty tough to look "weak" here to the tag anyways - unless you maybe shove. The tag's hand never beats your so I guess that's a luxury you have.

and one HUGE disadvantage to an overbet is the fish may read it as strong and start folding some Kx hands.

I think you are missing a key element here - Their are two potential callers in the hand. The fish is almost never calling here if we bet pot, imo, but they just want to get to showdown so you may get a crying call from whatever if he has a pair. Not sure why you are putting K8 hands in a 20 VPIP TAG hand range, I don't think that is very likely is it?

The $9-$14 bet may fairly often get called twice. The pot bet isn't getting hero called very often from either, imo.

I think the bigger the bet, the bluffier it looks. Obviously nobody's gonna give you credit for a 9 and after the turn checked through you probably won't get credit for a K either.

The board is basially drawless so they both have a hand with showdown value (barring 67 but that seems unlikely) and I would expect the reg to look you up with any K and the fish to look you up even lighter.

I'd also say the fish was on a draw of some sort, maybe 67, 23, A3 or something like it. The reg probably has a K, KJ, KQ, K10, going for pot control. I say fire a little over half the pot and you get a call from K and the fish folds. Mandatory fold to a raise.

I don't think we can put the fish on any specific range, I'd say A5, but it might be air, 66 or 67.
The more interesting is the SB's hand and I think we should get some more information on him; is he thinking/winning player or not? After check-calling your raise on the flop he looks very strong (like a set) and even KQ is a bit less likely because of our Q. Unless he's bad he shouldn't have many KJ, KT hands there. Moreover, I don't think he'd call more than halfpot bet on the river vs pretty obvious strong value bet (unless he's bad).
I'd bet something small, like 8$ to get calls from [any] worse fish's hand and SB's bluffcatchers.
Overbetting would be an option but it won't get called by any worse hand (and it will scare fish away) and it wouldn't give us room for folding when we get check-raised by a boat from SB.

Why fold to a raise? Esp from the fish? He sometimes read halfpot bet as a bluff and make kind of spazz raise, doesnt he ?

And what hands can 'proph' check/raise that are better after turn being checked around?

I don't think SB has a monster. I would put him on a KQs at the best. His river check looks pretty weak.
After your turn check I guess he would've made some value bet on the river for fish to call.

I would bet somewhat like half pot here or if you ask durrr, I'm pretty sure he would say all-in. This is one of the best situation to represent a bluff.

I decided that on the off-chance the the fish has a king or wants to hero call me with a five, I would put him all-in so I bet pot. In retrospect, I think I'm much, much more likely to get looked up by at least one of them if I bet around 1/2 pot. Anyhow:

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Hero (MP): $53.50
CO: $48.10
BTN: $58.35
SB: $51.25
BB: $50.00
UTG: $24.95

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is MP with Q 9
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 3 folds, BB calls $1.75, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($7.00) K 5 4 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.50, BB calls $4.50, UTG calls $3

Turn: ($20.50) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($20.50) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $20.50, BB raises to $43.25 all in, UTG folds, ... hero?

BB thinks for a few seconds and then shoves. What do we put him on now?