$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
CO ($63.45) ------> 52/19/1.23(73)
BTN ($49.25)
SB ($21.90)
Hero ($51.60)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 4 players) Hero is BB J 9
CO calls $0.50, BTN raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $6.50, CO raises to $11, BTN folds, Hero calls $4.50

Flop: 8 K T ($24.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, $10 to Hero ($40.6)?



This is just too small of a 4b, so I call. A mistake so far is me not raising enough PF to make it a nice re-steal.
Knowing that he probably connected, is it still profitable to push/call/fold, why?

Fold pre-flop. Villain probably have QQ+ or AK. Villains line is strong, it looks like "oops! I have a monster and I forgot to raise, so Ill do it now". This could be also fancy playing aces.

As played: Fold flop because theres not much you beat and villains stats are spewy, so I wonder is there even folding equity if you push.

If you decide to take J9o this far and flop an OESD,I can't see how you can fold to an under 1/2 pot bet.

call lolz

pf is fine imo

FWIW this is definitely not a stupid question that has to be lolled at. And I suspect a call may be bad given that we are very unlikely to see two cards for our $10 call.

Looking at a shove;

If we put him on QQ+ and AK

We have 29.7% equity, pot is 34.25, and our shove risks 40.6. We need him to fold to the shove 15.6% of the time to be 0ev.

We are putting him on 21 combos of hands, so we would need him to fold 3 combos to be 0ev. Basically a shove would be +ev if you think he would fold QQ half of the time here.

If you think he never has AK here since he would probably 4bet bigger than min. Then you need him to fold QQ half the time.

If you think he can have JJ here as well then he ony needs to fold JJ two thirds of the time, for the call to be +ev (assuming he calls everything better lol).

Overall I think a shove is going to be marginally +ev, if you think he 4bets QQ, if you think he ever does this as a bluff which I doubt then it will be +ev for sure.


Working out the ev of a call is a little more difficult (I can't be bothered right now). However i suspect it would be bad, running some quick estimates it looks pretty close even if he pays you off 100% of the time when you hit.

Excellent analysis!!

And exactly, the EV of calling is my question.. I have no clue how to calculate it. This really smells like Aces, but now the question is.. assuming he's got the AA, can my call here be +EV?

i think shoving is better based on that ev analysis above. in my head i calculated that you have ~6.5:1 implied odds if he stacks off every time when you hit and then doesn't outdraw again. When this happens you are slightly better than break even on a call. conditions are rarely so perfect (there is also a flush draw out) so i think a call is bad... i would push.

Call is slightly +EV.. Villain has QQ+ like every time here. I doubt since he is this bad that he can lay down QQ even. Just call and reevalute. Easy stack if you hit your straight less variance too.

Here my gut was telling me he had AA, in that case I'm getting more than 3-to-1 pot odds (about 25%) and I'll hit my straight about 32%, I'm actually getting immediate pot odds to call this.. let alone the implied odds.

Flop: 8 K T ($24.25, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero goes all-in $40.60, CO calls $30.60

Turn: 2 ($105.45, 2 players)

River: 7 ($105.45, 2 players)

Final Pot: $105.45

CO shows: A A
Hero shows: J 9

Hero wins $103.45 ( won +$51.85 )
CO lost -$51.60
BTN lost -$2.00



Bad play by me

However excellent analysis.. thanks all!

FOLD PRE, WITH MARGINAL CONNECTOR CARDS OOP!