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2nlz - AKo Squeeze+shove flop 2nlz - AKo Squeeze+shove flop

02-23-2017 , 08:46 PM
MP loose/weak fish, BB weak/regish stats but no actual read on any of them - was planning on shoving most flops if checked back to - by putting v on TT-JJ, AQs+
I realize it's a tad spewy

Is 4b size too large in this spot? What board textures would you choose to execute this more often?

Thks

PokerStars - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 89.5 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 8)
BB: 240.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB
MP: 211.5 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
CO: 213 BB (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A K

Hero raises to 3 BB, MP raises to 9 BB, fold, fold, fold, BB calls 8 BB, Hero raises to 34.5 BB, fold, BB calls 25.5 BB

Flop: (78.5 BB, 2 players) J 8 4
BB checks, Hero bets 65.5 BB and is all-in
2nlz - AKo Squeeze+shove flop Quote
02-25-2017 , 01:01 PM
I think that should be an easy shove. Problem is that it does give some variance as you will get stacked around 27% of the time
However I ran an equity calculation. I hope I did it right
I did widen the range of villain a bit. I think you made that a bit tight.

I gave villain the following range: QQ-77,AQs+,AKo or 42 combos
I reckon he'll be calling with these hands:QQ-JJ,88,AsKs,AsQs or 14 combos (perhaps some villains will call with TT/99)

So that means that villain will call 1/3 of the times (14/42) and fold per consequence about 2/3 of the time
the pot will be 144bb when villain folds and 209.5 when he calls

Your equity when villain folds is of course 100% so you will get 2/3 of the time 100% of 144bb that is 96bb
When villain does call, you will have little equity
Board: J84
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****16.92%**14.57%***2.35%*{ AcKh }
MP3****83.08%**80.73%***2.35%*{ QQ-JJ, 88, AsKs, AsQs }


when called you will have an expectation of
when you win: 10.17bb (14.57 x 209.5 x 1/3 of the times)
when you tie: 3.29bb (4.70 x 209.5 x 1/3 of the times)
when you lose: 0 bb (about 26.91% of all pots as you will lose 80.73% about 1/3 of the time)

So your total expectation would be 109.46bb (96+10.17+3.29) whilst you wager 65.5bb or you have 44bb expected value
That is massive unless I calculated that wrongly. Let me know

I think in general, when you 4-bet AK and effective stack is 100bb, you should jam on most flops as you will have decent fold equity and still around 20% effective equity when villain calls.
However, most of your equity is coming from your fold equity and so when villain is a station, it's a very bad move
Also, when the board has two or three Broadway cards, I don't think you can do it as you will run far too often in sets or chops.

When taking your range JJ-TT,AQs+ (14 combo) and assuming he only continues with AsKs,AsQs,JJ (5 combos), you would have even more (45.27bb), most likely due to fact that the amount of made hands for villain decreases...
2nlz - AKo Squeeze+shove flop Quote

      
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