I think that should be an easy shove. Problem is that it does give some variance as you will get stacked around 27% of the time
However I ran an equity calculation. I hope I did it right
I did widen the range of villain a bit. I think you made that a bit tight.
I gave villain the following range: QQ-77,AQs+,AKo or 42 combos
I reckon he'll be calling with these hands:QQ-JJ,88,AsKs,AsQs or 14 combos (perhaps some villains will call with TT/99)
So that means that villain will call 1/3 of the times (14/42) and fold per consequence about 2/3 of the time
the pot will be 144bb when villain folds and 209.5 when he calls
Your equity when villain folds is of course 100% so you will get 2/3 of the time 100% of 144bb that is 96bb
When villain does call, you will have little equity
Board: J
8
4
*******Equity*****Win*****Tie
MP2****16.92%**14.57%***2.35%*{ AcKh }
MP3****83.08%**80.73%***2.35%*{ QQ-JJ, 88, AsKs, AsQs }
when called you will have an expectation of
when you win: 10.17bb (14.57 x 209.5 x 1/3 of the times)
when you tie: 3.29bb (4.70 x 209.5 x 1/3 of the times)
when you lose: 0 bb (about 26.91% of all pots as you will lose 80.73% about 1/3 of the time)
So your total expectation would be 109.46bb (96+10.17+3.29) whilst you wager 65.5bb or you have 44bb expected value
That is massive
unless I calculated that wrongly. Let me know
I think in general, when you 4-bet AK and effective stack is 100bb, you should jam on most flops as you will have decent fold equity and still around 20% effective equity when villain calls.
However, most of your equity is coming from your fold equity and so when villain is a station, it's a very bad move
Also, when the board has two or three Broadway cards, I don't think you can do it as you will run far too often in sets or chops.
When taking your range JJ-TT,AQs+ (14 combo) and assuming he only continues with AsKs,AsQs,JJ (5 combos), you would have even more (45.27bb), most likely due to fact that the amount of made hands for villain decreases...