The questions you need to ask yourself are these:

When I have the best hand, will I be able to get to showdown and/or play my hand for value postflop?

When I have the worst hand, how mush does it cost me?

Those who advocate set mining are erroneously assuming that we get paid off nearly every time we flop a set.

I'm folding here.
You lose -.62 by folding.
If you call 3 flops are possible
1. High cards flop - you fold to his cb. loss of -2.5

2. Low cards flop. You don't know where you are and have a tough decision and even if you're ahead, an A or K on turn/river will beat you

3. You catch a J. Even in this case a possible Q K or A might have you beaten.

FOLD

Yes its only 350 hands but that is all i have to go by.

He seems like an abc player to me. Which puts a tick in the "Yes he has TT+,AKs and my JJ is prob crushed box"

But he is in the SB which puts a tick in the "Could be air and he wants to end the hand now box"

Either way his cbet stat is 68% and im 68% certain he is going to fire on the flop.

No matter what the flop is i'm not going to like it without a jack and by that time the hand will have cost me way too much without any real info on the strenght of his hand.

Say i call the $1.88 and he fires 75% pot on the flop.

The flop is low and not connected.

Its going to cost me another $4.01

Do i raise here or flat?

Turn he fires 75% of the time.

Its all just way too messy for me...



No and No

Its more than likely going to cost me 100bb. Letting go of 2 and a bit pre is fine by me in this spot.

The only other way i can see to play the hand is 4bet (which comes in a wayyyyy distant 2nd to the fold option)

1. He folds his 3bet bluff range.
2. He shoves & i fold but it doesnt cost me 100bb
3. He flats which im 99% sure this abc guy will never do. No way is he good enough to flat here.

At least then i would have an idea of his hand strenght. Even though its 350 hands and a near pure assumption I doubt this guys 3bet bluff range is air more a semi bluff range with suited aces & broadway cards plus pairs.

Anything other than a fold just seems less than optimal. God i hate jacks

If people perceive his 3bet range to be so strong then we are getting paid alot imo.

Imo, either folding or calling is fine, I would usually call at see what happens.

itt: nits

I loosen up once tilted lol.

So lets go down the list.

You're first (and really you're biggest and *possibly* only) mistake is that you posted this hand (with your line included) and then defended your line.

Stop trying to be right. I don't care that you are proud that you can fold jacks here (regardless of whether you think it's a good play or not). This is a discussion forum and the general trend is towards discussing the optimal line. At no point have you ever tried to do this, all you've done is stated what you've done and said "I think this is the right play and xyz is why". This is not a discussion geared towards finding the optimal line, it's a discussion geared towards you trying to prove you're right.

If you define a leak as anything that prevents you from having the highest winrate possible, then this is a leak. It's a big leak. It's probably the biggest link preventing you from winning / winning more / moving up / enjoying poker more / whatever. Try and break out of it, I've done it and it's stupid.

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You say villains 3bet range is 2.7%, but you fail to realize that this is a global stat. You just 2.5x'd from MP (which is almost assuredly a leak), villains 3bet range could adjust dramatically from what you listed.

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Regardless of whether villain has a 2.7% range in this spot, if you have 40% equity and are in position, folding is simply going to be a massive leak. In fact, if villains range is so tight, hand reading should be so absurdly easy against him that folding is kind of criminal.

We need to be very clear about something here if you're going to get this point. Making a 0EV fold when you can make a +whateverEV call is *JUST AS BAD* as making a -whateverEV call when you can fold. There is no "I'm able to get money from other people easier" there is no "I might face some tough spots" there is no "I'm not comfortable". Leaving a cent on the table is just as bad as giving it away from your stack. It has the same overall effect on your winrate.

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Going back to the hand reading point. Really? You can't play against buddy? You're going to get a flop, and you're options are going to be really, really simple, because villain is never going to barrel enough to actually exploit you.

You can literally just look at the flop and go "ok, he cbets AK/air here so I'll call flop fold turn" or else go "ok, I don't think he cbets his air here, so if he bets I have a pretty easy fold as his range will be > JJ".

The fact that you know you are crushed when he bets is NOT A BAD THING. It makes the game really simple, really easy to play, and really easy to exploit him, just like if you knew he only had QQ+ and never had AK, it would make it really easy.

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Your first point is pretty unfair Onions. He obviously considers his line to be optimal and others can see some sense in this. It is a discussion bringing across different points of view of which he is bringing his own. If whenever someone commented the OP just said, oh yeh. Then it wouldn't be a very useful discussion.

I agree - you're kind of being a jerk.

I die a little inside every time the annual should I fold JJ to a single 3bet thread comes around.

The stats provided suggest that villain is a competent aggressive player postflop. How do you know he won't barrel enough to exploit us? You give two different possibilities for the flop; how are we supposed to know which line to take? It doesn't make sense to assume that it will be easy to exploit this player postflop without any more reads than OP provided.

In fact, the exploitable tendency this player has is not his postflop play, but rather 3betting too rarely preflop. The way to exploit a player who is not bluffing often enough is to fold more often, not call with marginal hands.

You could reasonably argue that JJ is still good enough to call with considering the times we beat TT, AK, etc. plus our set equity, but to say this hand will be easy to play postflop without better info than OP has given is unreasonable. If OP doesn't think it will be easy to make the correct decisions postflop with the reads he has on villain, folding is the correct play.

fyp

Ok

I like to think that any info i get from this thread will be +ev for me in the long run of my game.
If by chance this thread is a leak a verrrrrrrry small percentage of the people who read it will be able to exploit me. By that time i may adjust who knows?
I'm not trying to be right. I'm trying to make as much $$$$ as i can and i'm more than happy to spill the beans of my game (1 hand) and have hopefully better players than me pick me apart in this thread telling me why i'm wrong.
Here to learn, not be right.

If this thread and my line was really such a massive leak then no one would ever post anything on 2+2 and the site would fail...


huh starting to loose me here...


Yeah mate thats why i keep asking if people are doing other things... Like raise?


He barrels 68% on the flop then 75% on the turn as far as you and i know. Is that not enough?


This is where you do loose me...
But please feel free to proove me wrong. Show me some stats. Some math. Slap some sense into me with your mamoth graph.
Please... Iam here to learn after all.

Off to search "fold JJ 3bet" right now