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10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? 10nlz - how big to theoretically bet?

09-30-2016 , 05:36 AM
More of a theory question than looking for the best exploiting move. On the board below (correct me if I'm wrong) I believe BTN has a much stronger range than BB. It has overpairs, all sets, most straights. BB 3bets AXs some % of the time, doesn't always flat with 22-44, and almost never has AA.


We should bet very big then; villain has to fold more (theoretically) so with a bigger sizing, we can have more profitable bluffs in our betting range (theoretically).

So what's stopping me from hitting 2x pot? Why not 3x pot? (theoretically)



    [hand_history]Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37443326

    Hero (BTN): $11.51 (115.1 bb)
    SB: $15.78 (157.8 bb)
    BB: $24.67 (246.7 bb)
    UTG: $10.91 (109.1 bb)
    MP: $20.75 (207.5 bb)
    CO: $10 (100 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BTN with 8 Q
    3 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, SB folds, BB calls $0.20

    Flop: ($0.65) 4 2 3 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.40????

    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 05:42 AM
    BTN raise range is much wider than BB 3x calling range. Therefore BB is more likely to be ahead without any further info (as in the example).

    If you bet 2x or 3x pot you are making life easy for V as it is almost impossible for a somewhat skilled opponent to make a mistake vs this bet sizing.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 05:44 AM
    Why are you betting? What will you do when he raise... what will you do when he call?
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 05:46 AM
    BTN raise range being wider preflop makes our range stronger on this flop, since K2s/Q4s etc hit this board and BB has a lot of pocket pairs (not a big % of his range) or air.

    Betting bigger can take away our positional advantage on later streets, so in that sense it's easier for BB to play if we bet bigger... I think I just answered my own question. We should bet as big a size we can that lets us play for stacks by the river still, no?
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 05:57 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ToiletBowler
    BTN raise range being wider preflop makes our range stronger on this flop, since K2s/Q4s etc hit this board and BB has a lot of pocket pairs (not a big % of his range) or air.

    Betting bigger can take away our positional advantage on later streets, so in that sense it's easier for BB to play if we bet bigger... I think I just answered my own question. We should bet as big a size we can that lets us play for stacks by the river still, no?
    Construct ranges and run it through equilab or pokerstove. You will have an equity disadvantage on this flop with typical BTN open % and BB calling %

    You want to play for stacks with Q8 on a 234 board???
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 05:59 AM
    [QUOTE=btthywrsooted;50885855]Construct ranges and run it through equilab or pokerstove. You will have an equity disadvantage on this flop with typical BTN open % and BB calling %

    You want to play for stacks with Q8 on a 234 board???[/QUOT

    yeah, i was also suprised...:-D
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 06:02 AM
    IMO you can go 2x pot but there are some porblems with that size.If you go 2x you need 66% of folds and your range should be something like 40%bluffs and 60% of value and with that size you should get a lot of folds so maybe can be profitable in that sense.Problem begins when he call you and turn comes now you have giant pot,so you must bet again a lot of the times and when you do you again bet big and when you do he folds all SDV and continue with value hands,and because you are 100BBdeep you dont have that much ammunition to fire on rivere.So with this plan you missing a lot of value of his SDV hand when you have it and your bluffs are just to expensive.Maybe you can play like this when you are much deeper.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 06:03 AM
    You're mistaking having more hands at the top of your range for having a stronger range.

    Remember how much air you'll also have.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 06:03 AM
    Who said anything about playing for stacks with Qd8d? It's a theory question, this happened to be a hand I had relevant to the situation. I'm not asking for hand-specific advice, I'm looking for a discussion about ranges.

    I have constructed ranges, and there is an equity advantage of 1% towards BTN. Feel free to give me some ranges I can plug in, I know my constructed BB range is probably on the tight side.

    Aside from equity considerations, playability is a better measure of EV than equity, and with more nutted hands and straight outs in BTN range, I'd say BTN has more playability (and equity). But I'm open to having my ranges corrected, if you would like to?

    BTN
    22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54 s,43s,32s,A2o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o

    BB
    99-44,ATs-A7s,KJs-K8s,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 06:14 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ToiletBowler
    Who said anything about playing for stacks with Qd8d? It's a theory question, this happened to be a hand I had relevant to the situation. I'm not asking for hand-specific advice, I'm looking for a discussion about ranges.

    I have constructed ranges, and there is an equity advantage of 1% towards BTN. Feel free to give me some ranges I can plug in, I know my constructed BB range is probably on the tight side.

    Aside from equity considerations, playability is a better measure of EV than equity, and with more nutted hands and straight outs in BTN range, I'd say BTN has more playability (and equity). But I'm open to having my ranges corrected, if you would like to?

    BTN
    22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54 s,43s,32s,A2o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o

    BB
    99-44,ATs-A7s,KJs-K8s,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
    Your range of BB is too thigh BB have all sets straights a lot of draws.I think this strategy can be good on boards that favor PF raiser something like A K 2 in that case PF raiser have all set two pairs and callers best hand is 22,but more likely he have some air or some weak Ax in which case you put him in super tough spot.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 06:39 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by ToiletBowler
    Who said anything about playing for stacks with Qd8d? It's a theory question, this happened to be a hand I had relevant to the situation. I'm not asking for hand-specific advice, I'm looking for a discussion about ranges.

    I have constructed ranges, and there is an equity advantage of 1% towards BTN. Feel free to give me some ranges I can plug in, I know my constructed BB range is probably on the tight side.

    Aside from equity considerations, playability is a better measure of EV than equity, and with more nutted hands and straight outs in BTN range, I'd say BTN has more playability (and equity). But I'm open to having my ranges corrected, if you would like to?

    BTN
    22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,65s,54 s,43s,32s,A2o+,K7o+,Q8o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o

    BB
    99-44,ATs-A7s,KJs-K8s,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,AJo-A9o,KTo+,QTo+,JTo
    32s, 43s..i´d not play..against random...against NIT its playable.. because you can open ATC..

    against BTN open there is no need to have calling range...
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:18 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ondrejik
    32s, 43s..i´d not play..against random...against NIT its playable.. because you can open ATC..

    against BTN open there is no need to have calling range...
    What?
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:26 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Karrlitos1
    What?
    against BTN open i either 3b or fold
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:31 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ondrejik
    against BTN open i either 3b or fold
    From BB?
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:31 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ondrejik
    against BTN open i either 3b or fold
    That is not good.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:37 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Karrlitos1
    That is not good.
    Some reasoning?

    what are you playing here vs BTN open without initiative and even without position?
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:40 AM
    QTo
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:45 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ondrejik
    Some reasoning?

    what are you playing here vs BTN open without initiative and even without position?
    You blow up pots with marginal holdings, and I don't even want to think about your defending range vs 4bets.. You get a great price on the BB and you close out the action.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 08:54 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Karrlitos1
    You blow up pots with marginal holdings, and I don't even want to think about your defending range vs 4bets.. You get a great price on the BB and you close out the action.
    It depends on villain on the btn...his attempt to steal from btn, his fold to 3b.. his fold to fcbet, tcbet... 4bet defend depends against on villains 4bet stats.. if he has 4bet to blinds 3bet 25% im not going to 3bet him light and then fold..etc...

    so if you filter yur database for call QTo from BB aginst BTN, you are in green numbers in bb/100? no offense, i´m curious.

    i´m new here and i dont know yet who is competent and who is not...
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 09:01 AM
    I dunno. I can't be bothered to check. Remember that from bb your goal is to improve upon the default -100/bb per 100 hands.

    Essentially, you need to defend a lot of hands to prevent BTN from automatically profiting on his steal (defending less vs. a 3x open than a 2x open). Given that we get a good price from the BB and close the action, calling is a very good option with quite a few hands that are getting odds but will struggle vs. BTN's tighter defend vs. 3-bets.

    If you want to play 3-bet or fold then you're going to have to fold lots of hands that could flat profitably, or 3-bet a lot of hands that are very weak and will struggle post-flop. BTN gets to respond very well by tightening his pre-flop opens, flatting in position, and 4-betting wider. I don't think it's a sustainable strat vs. anyone who responds somewhat competently.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 09:16 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Bladesman87
    I dunno. I can't be bothered to check. Remember that from bb your goal is to improve upon the default -100/bb per 100 hands.

    Essentially, you need to defend a lot of hands to prevent BTN from automatically profiting on his steal (defending less vs. a 3x open than a 2x open). Given that we get a good price from the BB and close the action, calling is a very good option with quite a few hands that are getting odds but will struggle vs. BTN's tighter defend vs. 3-bets.

    If you want to play 3-bet or fold then you're going to have to fold lots of hands that could flat profitably, or 3-bet a lot of hands that are very weak and will struggle post-flop. BTN gets to respond very well by tightening his pre-flop opens, flatting in position, and 4-betting wider. I don't think it's a sustainable strat vs. anyone who responds somewhat competently.
    agree, i dont say it is set in stone...and against thinking regs you should made some adjustments... but against most common NL 10 multitabling reg who has attempt to steal 50, fold to 3b 80 and 4b 1%, its auto profit almost and working pretty well... i still think that defend QTo OOP offsuit is very marginal and not EV+ for some beginnig players...if you are experienced, its fine..
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote
    09-30-2016 , 10:58 AM
    If you're planning on cbetting really big from your BTN open, you'll likely have to split your range into two sizes.

    Betting big with a depolarized range is specifically exploiting a villain who is not sensitive to bet size. Most decent players who adjust based on bet size will respond correctly by continuing with a tighter range, so you'll be restricting the lower part of your range to face only better hands. Not to mention, you lose way more when you have to fold to a raise.

    Most of your BTN range is going to benefit from a small cbet because there are plenty of air hands that would like to get cheap folds on a dry board. The above board might be an exception though since usually a big source of EV is getting A highs to call a small flop bet and fold them out on the turn. With a gutshot, it might be harder to get these hands to fold.
    10nlz - how big to theoretically bet? Quote

          
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