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10NLz - folding KK to turn shove 10NLz - folding KK to turn shove

04-25-2017 , 03:39 PM
    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37710836

    BTN: $11.22 (112.2 bb)
    SB: $14.65 (146.5 bb)
    Hero (BB): $20.58 (205.8 bb)
    UTG: $11.85 (118.5 bb)
    MP: $5.08 (50.8 bb)
    CO: $10.05 (100.5 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with K K
    4 folds, SB raises to $0.24, Hero raises to $0.85, SB raises to $2.26, Hero calls $1.41

    Flop: ($4.52) T 4 Q (2 players)
    SB bets $3.15, Hero calls $3.15

    Turn: ($10.82) 8 (2 players)
    SB bets $9.24 and is all-in, Hero folds




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    What do you think? Would you gii preflop, even though we're 150bb effective?
    10NLz - folding KK to turn shove Quote
    04-25-2017 , 04:55 PM
    I think we just have to get it in pre. Even though its 150BB effective. Its blind vs blind and as long as you are 3 betting a solid amount his 4 bets could definetly be pretty wide OOP.
    If he is 4 betting JJ+,AKs,A5s-A3s,AKo you have 64% equity but you are put in a tough spot like you were above if he is aggressive. I think you should 5 bet jam. If he only continues with KK+ he would have to fold 81% of the time giving us an EV of .81*17.76= 14.39. We would have 20.5% equity when called with an EV of .205*29.3 = $6
    We would make 14.39+6-14.65= $5.74 in EV.
    If he calls with QQ+ AK he would fold 38%. You would get .38*17.76= 6.75 when he folded.
    You would have 57% equity when called with an EV of .57*29.3 = 16.7
    Here you would make 6.75+16.7-14.65= $8.80 in EV.
    Even if he only 4 bets QQ+ and only calls with KK+ he will fold 37%
    .37*17.76= 6.57. When called you have 20.5% equity .205*29.3= 6
    6.57+6-14.65 = -$2.08. If you have a specific read that villain is doing this then you can exploitatively fold to his 4 bets without AA( but I wouldn't sweat getting in KK) and 3 bet him extremely wide.
    If he 4 bets QQ+ AK and continues with KK+ you are also profitable.
    This is a very high variance spot but you cannot stop yourself from shoving because "He always has aces".
    Even if his 4 bet range is not as wide this will be a profitable shove in the long run.

    Last edited by Jack_poker; 04-25-2017 at 05:10 PM.
    10NLz - folding KK to turn shove Quote
    04-25-2017 , 05:23 PM
    Haven't gone through the maths of above post as it's abit over my head , but pretty much agree with the first 5 lines.
    10NLz - folding KK to turn shove Quote
    04-25-2017 , 09:31 PM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Jack_poker
    I think we just have to get it in pre. Even though its 150BB effective. Its blind vs blind and as long as you are 3 betting a solid amount his 4 bets could definetly be pretty wide OOP.
    If he is 4 betting JJ+,AKs,A5s-A3s,AKo you have 64% equity but you are put in a tough spot like you were above if he is aggressive. I think you should 5 bet jam. If he only continues with KK+ he would have to fold 81% of the time giving us an EV of .81*17.76= 14.39. We would have 20.5% equity when called with an EV of .205*29.3 = $6
    We would make 14.39+6-14.65= $5.74 in EV.
    If he calls with QQ+ AK he would fold 38%. You would get .38*17.76= 6.75 when he folded.
    You would have 57% equity when called with an EV of .57*29.3 = 16.7
    Here you would make 6.75+16.7-14.65= $8.80 in EV.
    Even if he only 4 bets QQ+ and only calls with KK+ he will fold 37%
    .37*17.76= 6.57. When called you have 20.5% equity .205*29.3= 6
    6.57+6-14.65 = -$2.08. If you have a specific read that villain is doing this then you can exploitatively fold to his 4 bets without AA( but I wouldn't sweat getting in KK) and 3 bet him extremely wide.
    If he 4 bets QQ+ AK and continues with KK+ you are also profitable.
    This is a very high variance spot but you cannot stop yourself from shoving because "He always has aces".
    Even if his 4 bet range is not as wide this will be a profitable shove in the long run.
    There are several mistakes in the actual EV calculations here, but I agree that the conclusions drawn are still applicable.
    10NLz - folding KK to turn shove Quote

          
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